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#1436073 - 04/10/2017 18:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2849
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Only dry signal in all of NSW through to 17th Oct! lol

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#1436074 - 04/10/2017 18:35 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5990
Loc: Dural
It'll change CS.

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#1436079 - 04/10/2017 19:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2673
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If it wasnt so funny Id cry, really rippin it up us atm.

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#1436102 - 05/10/2017 09:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10140
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
EC long term models getting quite pushy with inland wet weather over next week to fortnight. hope it's right.

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#1436104 - 05/10/2017 09:13 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: DaveM]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2673
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: DaveM
EC long term models getting quite pushy with inland wet weather over next week to fortnight. hope it's right.


Same - it's looking good for you guys IMO, still hopeful there'll be dregs when it gets to the coastal strip.

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#1436312 - 07/10/2017 19:57 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2673
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well, models look good for western, northern and NE NSW; elsewhere nadda frown

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#1440974 - 11/11/2017 11:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4429
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Looks like a widespread rain event coming up for NSW, with falls of 25-50mm in the period Nov 15-18 for most of the coast and Tablelands:



Heaviest falls (50mm+)look to be in the Central Tablelands, which makes me think storms, and on the South Coast.

Will probably be worth its own thread.

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#1440985 - 11/11/2017 13:56 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2673
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yep I was waiting for arvo model run before I started a thread smile

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#1441006 - 11/11/2017 20:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 460
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looks like a low moving into the east coast with a high pressure below it
Windy weather maps

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#1463137 - 05/05/2018 07:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4429
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Cold change and Tasman Low - May 10-14

The models are now all agreeing on a cold change followed by the development of an intense low pressure system near the NSW East Coast. There is a possibility of snow on the Central Tablelands and further North and also possible widespread significant rain. This would be our first 'Wintery' event of 2018. The models still disagree on the details. It looks very interesting in GFS and EC, fairly boring in Access (unless you're sailing to NZ).

GFS: in GFS, the low develops off the mid North Coast drags in cold air from the deep South. It initially moves South-West and crosses the coast near Sydney to be over the Riverina Friday evening (11th), The blue line is well North of Sydney and 850 temps over the Central Tablelands are below zero. There's plenty of moisture and widespread rain and highland snow. The low then drifts out into the Tasman and gradually moves away to NZ.

EC: EC has the low forming near Bass Strait Thursday and quickly moving Northwards along the coast then out into the Tasman and off to NZ Sunday-Monday. Still lots of rain, cold and highland snow.

Access Last night's Access looks less interesting, more of your run of the mill. A trough forms Thursday bringing rain mostly to the NE of the State. A low forms in the Central Tasman Friday, keeping the coldest air and most of the rain well out to sea. A showery period for the coast, little or no rain inland and no snow outside the Alps.

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#1463145 - 05/05/2018 09:41 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5075
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
On the latest model run, I'm not convinced the Hunter will get that big drink that it needs, sure there will be some rain but it all looks confined to the far south coast on the latest run.

I'm sure there will be a bit of chopping and changing in the models to come.
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#1463342 - 07/05/2018 19:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1417
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
I hope our area gets a good drink from this!
Duane.

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#1463345 - 07/05/2018 19:50 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4429
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The 'S' word gets a run in the Central and Southern Tablelands forecasts for Friday as a 'possibility', above 900 metres. Precipitation from the coming event looks to be mostly for the Southern inland, for example Wagga 11-31 mm (Duane would be pleased). Sydney is only down for 1-13.

Meanwhile, GFS is showing another possible cold change around the 21st,

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#1463350 - 07/05/2018 20:45 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6997
Not too surprised at that Steve, this event looks like a goer now and better than anything last year for sure. The snow amounts will depend on the amount of moisture that can form before the warm air gets wrapped around the low. Friday will be the coldest where there should be snow all day, Friday night also cold. Saturday about midday, the airmass starts to warm pretty rapidly but precipitation amounts increase.

Yr.no is going for continuous snow in Oberon from Thursday night all the way to early Saturday morning amounting to about 15mm. Shooters Hill looking at nearly 30mm of precip falling as full on snow.

Meteye shows snow around Shooters Hill and surrounds all day Friday and into Saturday morning. Friday morning has the most widespread snow with blips around SH, Crookwell, Orange and Sunny Corner.
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#1464352 - 26/05/2018 16:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 974
Loc: Cammeray
The BOM has almost lost interest in next week for Sydney. More of the same

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#1466346 - 24/06/2018 18:02 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 460
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
A huge follow up event to this weeks slowly downgrading event is expected in 7 days time hopefully EC is correct. Access isn't supportive of a widespread event.



This is the 10 day rainfall accumulation. Also that huge high is going to be very useful in throwing a deep easterly flow, personally feel like this is a winner.


Edited by ashestoashes (24/06/2018 18:03)

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#1466350 - 24/06/2018 18:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2673
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC has been the only model to hang in there for this event....hoping it comes off.

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#1466364 - 24/06/2018 20:25 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2673
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Omg at 0z EC....please please that will make so many farmers happy.

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#1466402 - 25/06/2018 13:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2673
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC still full-steam ahead now with this system, and ACCESS, GFS & CMC all on-board as well.

This could be a game changer for many people out there suffering. Hope that the forecast falls are spread across a wide-area.

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#1466411 - 25/06/2018 16:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4429
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
GFS seems to be on board now for an event next week. Here is the situation tomorrow week, according to GFS. Great if it comes off:



This follows a lesser similar event later this week (Bathurst 6-15mm Wednesday to Friday).

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