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#1427792 - 11/07/2017 08:03 NSW / ACT - Possible future events
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I have set up this thread for discussion of possible events that cannot yet be accurately forecast but which are starting to appear in the models. The sort of things that could go there would include indications that appear in the models about 7-10 days into the future, before they become threadworthy - cold fronts, heat, snow, rain events, ECLs, etc. Also what might happen based upon indicators like ENSO, Annular Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.

We'll see how it goes.

= = = = = = = = =

I'll kick this off with a possible strong cold change that is appearing in both Access and GFS for Saturday July 18. The blue line penetrates well into Northern NSW and 850 temperatures over Sydney and the Central Tablelands are around -2. In addition, there's enough moisture around to support a decent amount of precipitation on the tablelands, which at these temperatures could include snow on the Central tablelands.

It's early days yet, it could all fall apart but we'll see in due course.

Between now and then it looks like we'll be getting a 'mini heatwave' this Friday 14th followed by an injection of cooler air on the 15th.


Edited by Steve777 (11/07/2017 08:04)

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#1427801 - 11/07/2017 09:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I like this idea Steve smile

I think next week is looking quite interesting - certainly GFS and Access believe there will be plenty of cold air about up this way. We just need precip then BUT that has been the issue for months now. EC has quite fresh 850 temps over us late next week as well.

I really think the chances are better that we will see some PROPER winter weather out here next week. There is already a LOT of cold air about, nothing should flush it out before those changes come next week. Getting a little hopeful smile

As I said though PRECIP - that is the bit that worries me. Will need to be under the correct cloud at times grin

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#1427811 - 11/07/2017 12:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah Dave, precip (or lack of) for these events is problematic for sure. We have had some pretty decent cold but just no accompanying moisture.

GFS is showing a cold one from the afternoon of Tuesday 18th with 850's of -3 spreading up in the CT's and about 5mm in total for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. It's a southerly airstream so precip would certainly favour the Porters Retreat area more than anywhere. The thing that concerns me is that the -30 @ 500mb cold pool clears out to sea fairly quickly which means the air stabilise quite rapidly.(ie. no precip) I will be watching very closely for the 500mb cold pool to disconnect from the coldest 850mb temps. If the current setup holds, this could be an event, but I am banking that the 500mb will go out to sea in later models and then the 850mb temps will warm up. Hopefully I'm wrong but I've seen this happen many times.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427815 - 11/07/2017 13:14 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
You old snow hound!!! smile

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#1427853 - 12/07/2017 01:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Hmm the latest GFS run is looking crap for Tuesday cool change. Moisture is gone and cold pool doesn't line up.

But this weekend's change still looking OK.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427855 - 12/07/2017 07:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Im in Lithgow on Wednesday.

I see Meteye is forecasting snow for Tuesday just west of Lithgow....please weather gods line this up 😂😂😂
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#1427859 - 12/07/2017 09:15 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Meteye shows snow for the Central Tablelands on Saturday 15th from late morning into the early afternoon for what looks like areas above about 1100 metres West of the Divide, so the Yetholme area West of Lithgow, Canabolis near Orange and the area West of Jenolan and South of Oberon (e.g Shooters Hill). It probably won't be much - the models show little or no precipitation for the area at that time.

At this stage, Meteye is showing a similar story for the afternoon of Tuesday* 18th. However, the models seem to have backed off on moisture and the cold, especially Access. Access does show another change at the end of next week, while the second week of GFS shows the high shifting SE and plonking itself down over Victoria again.

Both days have extensive snow (although not particularly heavy) for the Snowy Mountains.


* I got my days mixed up in my opening past for this thread.

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#1427861 - 12/07/2017 09:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes Precip will be the issue as it has been all this year for sure.

The resorts need this extra kick along to consolidate the season for the next few weeks.

Dawgggg - yep Mt Lambie to Meadow Flat/Yetholme a good chance for you if anything happens.

Watch out though, they close the highway quickly if it looks like icing.

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#1427898 - 12/07/2017 20:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Access looks to be back on board for Tuesday into early Wednesday, with the blue line touching Qld, 850 temps of 0 to -2 over the Central Tablelands and some precipitation. EC gives some support, while GFS doesn't look that crash hot.

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#1427900 - 12/07/2017 21:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yes it looks quite good especially on EC. Very decent change at this stage.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427908 - 12/07/2017 23:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
7am Thursday 20th on 00z GFS is off the rails with -5 degrees at 850mb over the CT's, -14 at 700 and accompanying upper cold pool. Certainly something to watch. I really think a proper cold snap will actually occur mid next week. GFS is on board like the other two models, albeit a day later but it's a good sign of something brewing.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427923 - 13/07/2017 09:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Indeed lads, I think we might be in for several weeks of much more fun cold changes out here. Each of the coming colder pulses looking better than recent times.

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#1427924 - 13/07/2017 09:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Sure looks good DaveM!! About time too.

Okay 18z GFS this morning is not as impressive but more realistic with a classic SW change and plenty of moisture. Then Thursday morning looks crazily cold the for NT's with -5 at 850 but not much moisture. What I personally really like about it is that it's a cut off scenario where there is warmer air to the south meaning the cold can just stay and get colder, rather than sinking back to the south.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427954 - 13/07/2017 17:29 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Models definately coming onboard with this cold change.

Looks timely with my little trip to Lithgow. Come on baby. Keep it coming!
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#1427957 - 13/07/2017 18:19 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Like legit, on Wednesday on Meteye, the possible snowfall is only down the road...





Edited by Dawgggg (13/07/2017 18:27)
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#1427960 - 13/07/2017 19:06 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 309
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Good about meteye, meteye usually doesn't come onboard unless it's a solid ride. I find that meteye only forecasts settlings and not snowfalls.

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#1427964 - 13/07/2017 20:19 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
You guys realise MetEye (or ADFD) is not model data, it's put in by a human.
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#1427969 - 13/07/2017 21:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4064
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Probably should start thinking about creating a thread for this upcoming event, looking likely, wont say its set in concrete just yet, maybe wet cement!! grin
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#1427970 - 13/07/2017 21:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah that is true but I don't use Meteye anyway. I prefer to look at the models and make my own judgment.

06z GFS is still looking excellent. It's a bit delayed with the change moving through mid-morning and then plenty of snow potential all day for anywhere above 900m with possibly 5-10cm in some areas exposed to the south and west.

The model is showing -3/-11 for 850mb/700mb basically all day and Wed evening. Then Thursday morning, -5 at 850mb with less moisture and warming slightly to -4 and then -3 in the afternoon.

So given the current model runs, it would actually be possible to see snow any time from Wednesday mid morning until Thursday evening.

I'd say it's almossst set in concrete Eddy. There was once or twice when a potential cold snap vanished at 72hrs but that would be unlikely for this I reckon.

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Edited by Wave Rider (13/07/2017 21:53)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427971 - 13/07/2017 22:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4064
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Yes very tempting, just not sure how the BTs are going to fair?
_________________________
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#1427972 - 13/07/2017 22:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: EddyG]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Yes very tempting, just not sure how the BTs are going to fair?


I reckon this change is too W/SWly for the Barringtons. It's possible that there will be snow and be easily cold enough but nothing amazing- at this stage.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427974 - 13/07/2017 22:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Anyone ever seen *heavy snow* forecast by meteye on the CTs?

What is the threshold for *heavy snow*?
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#1427975 - 13/07/2017 22:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
You guys realise MetEye (or ADFD) is not model data, it's put in by a human.


Had no idea!

I assumed it was model based, but its pretty wicked if its human input.


Edited by Dawgggg (13/07/2017 22:28)
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#1427976 - 13/07/2017 22:28 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4064
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Yes very tempting, just not sure how the BTs are going to fair?


I reckon this change is too W/SWly for the Barringtons. It's possible that there will be snow and be easily cold enough but nothing amazing- at this stage.


Forecast is for possible snow showers on Wednesday & Thursday
_________________________
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#1427977 - 13/07/2017 22:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Dawgggg]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 309
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Anyone ever seen *heavy snow* forecast by meteye on the CTs?

What is the threshold for *heavy snow*?



Generally anything over 10cm/3hours. I have never seen meteye forecast it, even though it should have been many a times.

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#1428014 - 14/07/2017 18:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Don't forget to include Non Events
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#1428021 - 15/07/2017 03:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Stoxxo Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/04/2014
Posts: 11
Loc: Central Coast
Originally Posted By: Knot
Don't forget to include Non Events

Not totally sure i understand your view point, sure the models get it wrong sometimes but its a weather forum and looking into the models will always be a part of this forum.

Not having a go, just not entirely sure about the constant negativity, we all have a common interest though smile

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#1428024 - 15/07/2017 07:47 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Could always change things to Weather Model Zone Weather Simulation Zone or something. If I was using models to bet on the horses and I never backed a winner I would probably go back to a form guide. It's the over blowing of these things that annoys me. As if the weather is some computer game or something. A model snobbery. A model aristocracy. I will have my ten cents worth and continue to be a blue singlet weather guy. But I suspect there will be less and less room for that around here. I'm cool with that.
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#1428030 - 15/07/2017 09:52 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Mate, we're just using this thread to speculate about possible future events, like the title says. I never actually take these things seriously until a couple days out anyway. It's just entertaining to watch the models and how they change and then learn from it. I like computer generated and human models.. grin

Originally Posted By: Stoxxo

Not having a go, just not entirely sure about the constant negativity,


Yeah I agree.


Edited by Wave Rider (15/07/2017 09:55)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428032 - 15/07/2017 10:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
I think I might actually stop the model talk for a while for Knot's sake and post my observations elsewhere where it's a bit more appreciated. smile
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428047 - 15/07/2017 10:58 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@WR . Now come on mate. I never singled you out for special attention. And I am not against models per se. I am against hyping models. There is a difference. And as for negativity. I have never been one for this 'all lets get along jive'. There has been no real front half way thru calendar winter in my locale. And I am damn well @issed bout that. If you see my comments about that fact as negative so be it.

Now regarding forecasting models. Have they been on the money this winter. No they haven't. All that supercomputing has been wrong. So I figure a good old pencil and a bit of paper and a cursory look at some weather stats was as good an indicator of how this winter would pan out. And so far its been how I predicted for the Sydney region/ coastal and the alps poor snow depth. Pen and paper 1. Models 0
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#1428048 - 15/07/2017 11:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Unfortunately that's the way the models have been all winter, where they have gone for a good event only to be downgraded, so hence the over-hyping.

And I wasn't trying to single you out to be rude, I just know that this model talk annoys you in particular. So I will refrain from any discussion of long range models unless it is 2 or 3 days away, because you are right and do have a point. As I said, I do it from an entertainment point of view, I don't neccessarily have to share that here. But yes I will stop the over-hyping because I am guilty for it and this winter it had made me look silly.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428049 - 15/07/2017 11:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@WR You don't have to duck away from posting about model prognostications to avoid getting up my nose. A bit of to and fro about stuff aint so bad. Partic when there is nothing in the way of some decent weather events to get all worked up about.
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#1428051 - 15/07/2017 12:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Posts: 4376
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Post away WR the more annoying you are the better entertainment it is.lol
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#1428068 - 15/07/2017 17:17 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I started this thread because I found a similar thread in the Victorian forum interesting. Most people like to speculate on what's coming next, not just in weather. So model talk will feature here if this thread keeps going. Others may like to attempt long-range forecasting, make assessments based on indices, what wildlife are doing, whatever. I recall that during periods of extended heat or rain earlier this year, people were very interested in talking about records that might be set or when it might end.

As always, anything said about weather that extends beyond 7 days into the future has to be taking with lots of grains of salt, as we all know.

Some of us would prefer to keep to what's happening now and in the next couple of days, others want to look further ahead, most want to do both at different times (or at the same time). There's plenty of weather to go round.

==============

Anyway, as it turned out, today's front was a non-event, even the Snowies just got a light dusting of snow. The change due Tuesday evening looks stronger. On the surface chart, it looks to be digging up air from the Deep South, but, for whatever reason, the air that arrives in Sydney and nearby regions doesn't look particularly cold. In any case moisture is lacking North of about 35 deg South.

So what comes next? My 2 cents' worth (maybe an accurate valuation) for this part of the State is for warmer than it has been, with weak cool changes a couple of times a week, based upon:

1. My understanding of what the models show.

2. This: Sydney 10-15 day forecast. I think this is often a bit cool in Winter. I add a degree for OH.

3. Also this: the warm signal from NAEFS: NAEFS July 23-30. As it has for the whole year, the Tasman looks like a warm bath, but the warmth now covers most of the continent.

We shall see.

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#1428069 - 15/07/2017 17:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
I like that post Steve.
It would be good if we can just keep this thread to what it was intended for, it would make it enjoyable.
So what, if some of us are enthusiastic about future weather events, even if they don't pan out as models predict?

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#1428071 - 15/07/2017 17:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
At the end of the day I get enjoyment out of reading the charts and models, because I find the anticipation of a possible event fun even if it doesn't occur. And if so I work out what may be tell tale signs of a weather event dying for next time.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428086 - 15/07/2017 19:47 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4064
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Wish this forum had a like button. You summed it up well Steve777 especially this line you quoted!!


Originally Posted By: Steve777

As always, anything said about weather that extends beyond 7 days into the future has to be taking with lots of grains of salt, as we all know.



Anyway still 6 weeks left of winter, here's hoping for an event or two!!
_________________________
Rainfall
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
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#1428088 - 15/07/2017 20:04 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 309
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Eddyg, any significant weather, snowy or stormy happens usually the month leading TO and OUT of Winter. Theres two types of Winters.

ECL Ridden with usually the entire season full of Rain or Snow, or the one we are currently experiencing. The Rain and Snow conditions usually sort themselves out in August and September.

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#1428101 - 15/07/2017 23:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
Eddyg, any significant weather, snowy or stormy happens usually the month leading TO and OUT of Winter. Theres two types of Winters.

ECL Ridden with usually the entire season full of Rain or Snow, or the one we are currently experiencing. The Rain and Snow conditions usually sort themselves out in August and September.

Wait so any significant snow events only happen in May and September. That would be a very silly thing to say, because that isn't the reality. Most snow events occur in July and August. Thunderstorms don't really occur much in the winter, because there isn't as much instability to cause it in the winter. Thunderstorms are mainly a summer thing.
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#1428103 - 15/07/2017 23:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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I'm just gonna go ahead and understand without your authority that you didn't read a single word I said haha.

If you're gonna hit the king, you better kill the king.

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#1428178 - 17/07/2017 09:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
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Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hoping for some snowflakes around here tomorrow night/Wed - not enough precip for anything too exciting BUT some places are orographically gifted and will very likely see enough to look pretty smile

Shooters Hill up this way should get a little, it's always nice to watch snow fall. smile

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#1428180 - 17/07/2017 10:44 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Meteye has put snow back on the menu for the higher parts of the Central Tablelands for Wednesday morning between about Midnight and 10:00AM. Snow is also mentioned in the forecast for the Central Tablelands as being 'possible' above 1,100 metres. It doesn't look like a lot, judging by projected rainfall totals of 0-2 mm for Yetholme.

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#1428183 - 17/07/2017 11:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
I'm just gonna go ahead and understand without your authority that you didn't read a single word I said haha.

If you're gonna hit the king, you better kill the king.

I read it. It was incorrect. Most snowy weather doesn't occur in the month TO and FROM winter(May and September). If that isn't the case, I would appreciate you to explain why, rather than make a pointless remark.
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#1428184 - 17/07/2017 11:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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You are a total tool.

As I quote "r the one we are currently experiencing. The Rain and Snow conditions usually sort themselves out in August and September."

It literally states under these conditions we are currently experiencing.

Maybe you need your eyes checked or something.

Have another stab at me though.

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#1428185 - 17/07/2017 11:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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I must say though, some of the best snow events in recent history have occurred before and after winter. 27th-29th May 2000 and 12th October 2012 come to mind, and nothing has actually topped May 2000 so far, not even 17th July 2015.


Edited by Wave Rider (17/07/2017 11:33)
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Oct- 21st
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Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1428191 - 17/07/2017 12:37 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan

As I quote "r the one we are currently experiencing. The Rain and Snow conditions usually sort themselves out in August and September."

It literally states under these conditions we are currently experiencing.

We haven't experienced August or September 2017 yet. And you can't experience conditions that haven't occurred. And given the BOM has forecast a dry August and September for SE Australia, it might not be sort out. So it might be a dry winter (just like all reliable winter forecasters said). But then again, it might be a late season. Who really knows?
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#1428192 - 17/07/2017 12:44 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Looks like there will be snow in the BMs and CTs. GFS suggests chance of snow down to 700m on Thursday morning and better chance of snow to 1000m that afternoon. Even EC shows a dusting of snow up in the region. I would get up there!
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#1428193 - 17/07/2017 12:50 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Wave Rider Offline
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Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo




Looks like there will be snow in the BMs and CTs. GFS suggests chance of snow down to 700m on Thursday morning and better chance of snow to 1000m that afternoon. Even EC shows a dusting of snow up in the region. I would get up there!


Yeah it's looking like an interesting system. The first main cold front on Wednesday and then a fluky little cold pool for Thursday. The 700 and 500mb temps are definitely low enough for that to be believable for the system in general IMO.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1428196 - 17/07/2017 12:58 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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[censored] me you're a waste of energy talking to lol.

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#1428197 - 17/07/2017 13:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
[censored]me you're a waste of energy talking to lol.

Just giving you the facts. Now let's get back to the weather and leave behind ignorance and poor language.
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#1428198 - 17/07/2017 13:19 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
slotmachine Offline
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Will be cold enough for snow but think moisture will be an issue.

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#1428199 - 17/07/2017 13:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Love the system Chile just got clobbered by. Heaviest falls since 71. Hmm. Wasn't the word on the street back then that the ice-age cometh.
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#1428200 - 17/07/2017 13:45 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
petethemoskeet Offline
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Geez this is the second time I've agreed with you in regards to the last few words grin

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#1428202 - 17/07/2017 14:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Jeez Pete. Can't have that. he he he
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#1428218 - 17/07/2017 16:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Donzah Offline
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Wowsers . Look at that line of flash bang on the vicco border.

She's inbound

PS its snowing at perisher.

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#1428219 - 17/07/2017 17:03 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
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Me likey.

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#1428220 - 17/07/2017 17:05 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Donzah Offline
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Funny AXS R is throwing up some warm 500's , coolish 850's for Thursday. Odd.

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#1428221 - 17/07/2017 17:17 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Same with GFS Donzah. -3 @ 850 but then just -4 @ 700 and -17 @ 500 for Thursday morning. But yet it's shown cool lower temps on Thursday and warm uppers for days now so not like it's a model glitch or weird output.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428224 - 17/07/2017 17:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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I'm old school and always just look at BOM forecasts for what "might" happen.
They ain't going for anything particularly unusual this week. Just a stock standard mid winter cold change.
Sure, this may change as the system approaches, but their forecasts to me at this stage appear to be on the money.

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#1428236 - 17/07/2017 19:17 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
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Ext-GFS going for a reasonable inland warm-up once again. How nice that would be, just needs to be persistent. Either way, not long now til we really start warming up smile

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#1428239 - 17/07/2017 19:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Long Road Home]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Ext-GFS going for a reasonable inland warm-up once again. How nice that would be, just needs to be persistent. Either way, not long now til we really start warming up smile


Piss off. smile

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#1428247 - 17/07/2017 21:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Was reading something interesting in a 2007 article in the SMH that states during the the younger Dryas period of the last ice age when dramatic cooling occured in the northern hemisphere, Australia and NZ appear to have gotten warmer. Fascinating. An excerpt 'Australia may be spared the brunt of a future Ice Age, a climate expert says.
Dr Timothy Burrows says in a report published in the journal Science that Australia may not be affected as much as northern hemisphere countries if and when the next Ice Age hits.
New data collected by Dr Burrows from the Franz Joseph Glacier in New Zealand shows that during a period known as the Younger Dryas event, towards the end of the last Ice Age, Australia and New Zealand actually got warmer.
The Younger Dryas event occurred around 12,900 years ago and was a period of rapid cooling when the mean annual temperature in the UK was only 5 degrees celsius.
Dr Burrows, from the Australian National University in Canberra, said that these periods of rapid cooling were associated with the rapid heating that occurred at the end of the last Ice Age also known as the Pleistocene epoch.
"The height of the last Ice Age was around 20,000 years ago and then progressively over the next 7-9,000 years you get the greatest global warming that we have seen in recent history, then right at the end of that warming it gets cold again," Dr Burrows said.'
What I find interesting is that this article is dated 2007 and in a fishwrap that now pledges full allegiance to climate doom saying, a researcher states at one point during the last ice age ,quote'you get the greatest global warming in recent history' unquote. But it gets better. No runaway descent into a Venusian type world ( al la Stephen Hawking's recent bizarre outburst). No it gets colder. I wonder if the Dr Burrows still has a job after such sacrilege.
Could this dry winter be a harbinger kf the slowing of heat transfer from the southern hemisphere to the north with heat build up.
Apologies if in wrong place to mention this article.
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#1428248 - 17/07/2017 22:05 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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P.s. Article here if anyone interested in reading
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#1428250 - 17/07/2017 22:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
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Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Ext-GFS going for a reasonable inland warm-up once again. How nice that would be, just needs to be persistent. Either way, not long now til we really start warming up smile


Piss off. smile


That hit a nerve!! grin
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#1428280 - 18/07/2017 09:53 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Very interesting read Knot.

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#1428289 - 18/07/2017 11:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
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Good post Knotty smile

Also good post Homey smile

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#1428294 - 18/07/2017 12:13 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Registered: 16/02/2006
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Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Here we are thinking about warming up when it feels like we haven't even had a winter yet.


Edited by Seabreeze (18/07/2017 19:08)
Edit Reason: Insult removed. There have been multiple warnings not to bring up that incident.
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#1428296 - 18/07/2017 12:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Thanx Warren. Thanx Dave. I know my post strayed a little into the unmentionable but I just sat bolt upright when I read about the lessening of heat exchange from the southern hemisphere northwards due to the circulation changes in the northern hemisphere. Franz Josef Glacier is a wonderful place. I stayed for a considerable time at a little paradise called Okarito on the coast just north of the glacier. Beautiful
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#1428297 - 18/07/2017 12:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Franz Josef Glacier is a wonderful place. I stayed for a considerable time at a little paradise called Okarito on the coast just north of the glacier. Beautiful


I envy you a just a little, Knot. smile Would've been absolutely beautiful, I would love to travel to NZ one day!!
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428298 - 18/07/2017 12:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: rain gauge]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: rain gauge
Here we are thinking about warming up when it feels like we haven't even had a winter yet.


I agree that winter is still yet to arrive for the most part. But I'm not sure if the last sentence was really necessary??
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428299 - 18/07/2017 12:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 309
Loc: Penrith, NSW
...


Edited by Seabreeze (18/07/2017 18:57)
Edit Reason: Response to insult removed

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#1428300 - 18/07/2017 12:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
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Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
...


Edited by Seabreeze (18/07/2017 19:02)
Edit Reason: Insults continued
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#1428301 - 18/07/2017 12:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: rain gauge
Here we are thinking about warming up when it feels like we haven't even had a winter yet.


I agree that winter is still yet to arrive for the most part. But I'm not sure if the last sentence was really necessary??

This current system would be a good start to winter. Maybe August is going to be very cold and very wet.
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#1428302 - 18/07/2017 12:28 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Yeah its looking better Snowy
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#1428304 - 18/07/2017 12:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: rain gauge
Here we are thinking about warming up when it feels like we haven't even had a winter yet.


I agree that winter is still yet to arrive for the most part. But I'm not sure if the last sentence was really necessary??

This current system would be a good start to winter. Maybe August is going to be very cold and very wet.


I think it will be but that's based off gut feel and the fact that it's been dry for so long, so it has to tip the other way at some point.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428306 - 18/07/2017 12:36 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4376
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
It seems that years ago we had obvious winters and summers. Now the lines seem blurred. But that's just my perception. And perception can be frequently wrong.
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#1428308 - 18/07/2017 12:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 309
Loc: Penrith, NSW
...


Edited by Seabreeze (18/07/2017 19:05)
Edit Reason: Continuation of previous

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#1428309 - 18/07/2017 12:41 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: rain gauge]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: rain gauge
It seems that years ago we had obvious winters and summers. Now the lines seem blurred. But that's just my perception. And perception can be frequently wrong.


Maybe it could be that you live on the Central Coast so summers in particular are more moderate. I think I remember you saying when all the heat in Feb was going on that you used to live in Penrith?
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428310 - 18/07/2017 12:48 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Registered: 16/02/2006
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Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I've only lived up here since 2013. But I know what you mean.

I was more thinking along the lines of what others have said in different areas. Yes here on the central coast winter and summers are only 8C/9C difference. In Penrith the cold mornings might have made winters seems colder ,and Penrith being one of the hottest suburbs in Sydney would make summer seem like a polar opposite (Pun)to winter.


Edited by rain gauge (18/07/2017 12:50)
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#1428311 - 18/07/2017 12:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 309
Loc: Penrith, NSW
...


Edited by Seabreeze (18/07/2017 19:07)
Edit Reason: Continued bickering.

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#1428312 - 18/07/2017 12:55 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Registered: 16/02/2006
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The snowies maybe?
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#1428313 - 18/07/2017 12:57 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
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Loc: Penrith, NSW
Must of been.

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#1428326 - 18/07/2017 14:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Re 'obvious' Winters, this one's been fairly obvious:

Sydney Olympic Park min / max 2017:

January: 21 - 32 (daily mean 26)
July 1-18: 5 - 19 (12)

So there has been a bit of a contrast this year.

EDIT: don't mention the (frost) War.


Edited by Steve777 (18/07/2017 14:39)

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#1428327 - 18/07/2017 14:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
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Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Given we have had 6 "dry" months and only one wet month this year - I expect we have a chance of a drenching at some point in the coming couple of months. Gut feel for me is late August or September. Maybe that's just hope!!!

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#1428329 - 18/07/2017 14:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Registered: 16/02/2006
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Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Raw Figures from the BOM don't really tell you much. The mean temp doesn't tell much in between. Too general

Either way obs hill is the crappiest station to even define Sydney as a whole.


Edited by rain gauge (18/07/2017 14:54)
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#1428336 - 18/07/2017 16:03 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: rain gauge]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: rain gauge
Raw Figures from the BOM don't really tell you much. The mean temp doesn't tell much in between. Too general

Either way obs hill is the crappiest station to even define Sydney as a whole.


Both statements are true to some extent in my opinion. In Sydney, for example, there's no such thing as a 'typical' Summer's day, but several types which tend to come around in quick rotation, in different proportions from one year to the next.

As for OH, as I've said here before, I don't think it's a good representative for Sydney as a whole, especially for Summer maxima and Winter minima. I think Olympic Park would be better, the example I used in my last post, but no one site really fits the bill. There's so much local variability.

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#1428338 - 18/07/2017 16:08 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
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Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I was sort of going along the lines of perception. Rather than fact.
But you're right. Especially about using Olympic park as a more typical representation of Sydney.

Years ago if I recall Liverpool was generally seen as representative of most of South and western Sydney
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#1428340 - 18/07/2017 16:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
In my opinion, there are two types of typical summer days in Sydney:

● Mostly sunny with light winds tending to a moderate NEly seabreeze and max temps around 24-27C

● Cloudy with light to moderate (sometimes stronger) S/SE winds and temps of 22-24C.

If we always had these typical days, the average temp would be about 24 or 25C but the actual average max is skewed by the 30+ degree days that Sydney often experiences but I would not call 'typical'.


Edited by Wave Rider (18/07/2017 16:13)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428347 - 18/07/2017 17:47 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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If you ever get the desire to go to NZ then do it WR if means and time allow. The topography is mind blowing in places. Experinces you might not get in Oz are close by, like a beautiful beach in Gisborne and a relatively brief drive to active volcanoes in the central plateau. I hitch hiked a great deal all over the north and south island as a teen ager and in my early twenties. I was in Okarito the day Ronnie Reagan was shot. I was 20 years old. how the years fly by.
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#1428352 - 18/07/2017 18:53 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
If you ever get the desire to go to NZ then do it WR if means and time allow. The topography is mind blowing in places. Experinces you might not get in Oz are close by, like a beautiful beach in Gisborne and a relatively brief drive to active volcanoes in the central plateau. I hitch hiked a great deal all over the north and south island as a teen ager and in my early twenties. I was in Okarito the day Ronnie Reagan was shot. I was 20 years old. how the years fly by.


My part of the world. Manawatu born n bred.

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#1428364 - 18/07/2017 19:56 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Beautiful part of a beautiful land Donzah. I gotta get back over there some day. Some wild weather there the other day. Lucky buggers
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#1428374 - 18/07/2017 21:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A run of 20+ days for Sydney looks set to start in Sydney and run for a while - a high pressure belt a bit above 30 South, a belt of lows below 50S and Westerlies in between, with only minimal intrusion of colder Southern air, looks set to continue indefinitely.

As other posters have noted, it will probably end with a long, cool, wet spell (I have no basis to back this up). The 'hot' dry August of 1995 had a similar pattern and was followed by a cool, very wet early Spring.

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#1428451 - 19/07/2017 17:06 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
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A long way out, but with warm SST anything is possible I suppose. Something to talk about when this warm weather arrives!! grin
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#1428455 - 19/07/2017 17:59 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: EddyG]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
If we always had these typical days, the average temp would be about 24 or 25C but the actual average max is skewed by the 30+ degree days that Sydney often experiences but I would not call 'typical'.

Sydney OH gets about three 30+ days each Summer month, about 10%. If the average max is 26 and the average of the 30+ days is 33 (guess), then the average max of the other 90% of days would be 25.2, so the average is dragged up a bit by the relatively few hot days.

====

Originally Posted By: EddyG
A long way out, but with warm SST anything is possible I suppose. Something to talk about when this warm weather arrives!! grin

I saw that ECL at the end of the GFS run. A low forms in the Bight and caterpults itself across SA and NSW to form a low off the far NSW North Coast. It's very early days and a bit unusual anyway, but we'll see what happens. Between now and then, the pattern doesn't look quite as 'hot' as it did yesterday, with a couple of weak cool pulses, but there should still be a run of 20+ days. Maybe 25 is possible. 23 is forecast for Sydney for next Wednsday, and the BOM often seems to undershoot forecasting warm, sunny Winter days.

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#1428458 - 19/07/2017 18:54 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8299
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Ext-GFS has indeed been persistent with the warm-up. EC now has a tongue of 12C @ 850hpa extending from WA/SA toward the end of next week. May even see a 25+ in western Syd soon, nice little taste of spring.

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#1428463 - 19/07/2017 19:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Yes I think you could add 2 to Obs Hill mid next week Steve. I was gonna feel all bad about it because for some reason I had it in my head that 25 or over at Obs Hill had only occured twice before in the records. But I feel bettet now knowing it has reached 25 or above on 7 occasions. And here they are.
22nd 1926 temp of 25.7
26th 1931 temp of 25
29th 1960 temp of 25.4
29th 1975 also 25.4
24th 1990 temp of 25.9 (the current record holder)
30th 2014 temp of 25
22nd 2016 temp of 25.7

So prior to this century there hadnt been a 25 in the same decade. Could argue things are hotting up I guess. But I suspect that the diminishing tree transpiration in Sydney basin north west due to suburban sprawl means that north west winds are not being cooled a little before they reach the Obs site. Makes sense to me. A wind blowing over black asphalt is bound to stay warmer then one blowing over a tree canopy
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#1428467 - 19/07/2017 19:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Interesting analysis Knot. I've always thought the 25.9 record was 'soft'. It's been approached a couple of times in the last few years. I think it's just a matter of time before we see 26 point something in July at OH - maybe this month.

Other 'soft' records in my opinion are April (even though set last year - still seems low), May (will probably see 30+ soon), maybe September and December.

P.S. just hope 23-25 degree days in July aren't repaid with 19-21 degree days in December.


Edited by Steve777 (19/07/2017 19:32)

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#1428469 - 19/07/2017 19:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Interesting analysis Knot. I've always thought the 25.9 record was 'soft'. It's been approached a couple of times in the last few years. I think it's just a matter of time before we see 26 point something in July at OH - maybe this month.

Other 'soft' records in my opinion are April (even though set last year - still seems low), May (will probably see 30+ soon), maybe September and December.

P.S. just hope 23-25 degree days in July aren't repaid with 19-21 degree days in December.


I agree that the July record is rather soft, given that August has reached above 30 (31.3 record), even in my lifetime from memory so it's a rather common experience. June, in my opinion, should be the month with the lowest record maximum and that has reached 27C so I believe 28 in July is achievable.

I disagree that the April and May records are soft though, given that warm NWly airstreams are quite rare at that time of year and daylight hours are rather short anyway.


Edited by Wave Rider (19/07/2017 19:53)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428471 - 19/07/2017 20:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Yeh 26 in July will prob happen sooner or later. I have mused on the accuracy of reading a mercury thermometers pre sensor era. That 25.7 could have been a 26 given human eyesight variations. The record of 25.9 could have been 26 too. The bom states they started using resistance probes in the 90's at some places. I assume Obs Hill would have switched to a sensor in the 90's but might have used liquid filled in 1990 itself. How accurate could a reading be if who ever took the reading was far sighted and forgot their glasses


Edited by Knot (19/07/2017 20:27)
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#1428480 - 19/07/2017 22:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
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Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 762
Loc: Cammeray
I think the September record (nearly beaten the day I watched the mountain biking at the Sydney Olympics) is a pretty strong one. There's just not that much heat inland to get it above 35C IMO.

Aside from the January number I think the March record is also very strong. I can't remember it getting anywhere near 40C in March

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#1428527 - 20/07/2017 17:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rob G Offline
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Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 641
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Looks like the potential for some reasonable rain over the SE inland of NSW around month end. Hopefully signals a moistening trend, despite BoM's outlook.

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#1428539 - 20/07/2017 19:04 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
With warmer weather being forecast it could be looking gloomy for the snow - but with the AAO looking like it does below then we could well see some bigger southern ocean storms coming through over the coming weeks:



Fingers crossed for an awesome end to the season, and perhaps even a stronger front bringing some snow up to N NSW too smile


This is generally a pretty good driver for cold fronts. If we do get negative AAO/SAM we will have some good solid cold fronts. Hopefully everything will fall into place for August.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428543 - 20/07/2017 19:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Actually, the patterns look rather odd over the next couple of weeks. From Sunday, the highs are well to the North, like in text books, but the cold air is not breaking through, rather, it's keeping to the South - latitudinal bands. The resulting Westerlies might be OK for snow at high levels (say over 1600m).


Edited by Steve777 (20/07/2017 19:22)
Edit Reason: Clarify

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#1428549 - 20/07/2017 20:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
davidm Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1532
Loc: Orange, NSW
Now this looks tasty in the long range GFS!

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#1428556 - 20/07/2017 21:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Hey that one will actually come off! Look what the date says- AUGUST!! grin
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428559 - 20/07/2017 22:07 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 208
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Looks like the radar is showing something near Oberon. Would probably be snow if there were any precip there!

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#1428560 - 20/07/2017 22:08 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
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Loc: NSW Port Stephens
No problem with moisture there!!
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#1428562 - 20/07/2017 23:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
Sidney, reports of snow falling at Yetholme about 1200m ASL so yes no doubt any precip over Oberon would've also been snow.

Steve, having warm westerlies with highs to the north is way better for cold fronts than highs too far south. I personally think it's a good sign.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428566 - 21/07/2017 07:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
davidm Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1532
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Hey that one will actually come off! Look what the date says- AUGUST!! grin


We all know long range GFS is incredibly accurate, and never proposes insane scenarios only to back off gradually wink
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#1428574 - 21/07/2017 11:28 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
I know I know hahaha. Just being hopeful and optimistic. smile
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428576 - 21/07/2017 12:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Jealous of NZ fronts. Hope this Sam business slings one up soon.
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#1428579 - 21/07/2017 12:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Jealous of NZ fronts. Hope this Sam business slings one up soon.


Lucky bastards!!

I think lack of moisture has been the biggest problem for fronts. There are a few now that have been cold enough for snow on the Central Tablelands but no moisture.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428580 - 21/07/2017 12:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Play it again Sam lol
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#1428622 - 22/07/2017 00:15 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
We're going to get quite a decent warm spell soon enough. GFS has been signalling at rather warm 850 temps at the end of the runs the last couple of days now. I'm banking on high 20's for Sydney some time in the next few weeks.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428628 - 22/07/2017 07:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Jimi]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 686
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Jimi
I think the September record (nearly beaten the day I watched the mountain biking at the Sydney Olympics) is a pretty strong one. There's just not that much heat inland to get it above 35C IMO.

Aside from the January number I think the March record is also very strong. I can't remember it getting anywhere near 40C in March


The November record is a fairly strong one as well, occurring right in an El Nino period, with the March record also falling later that same summer period.
There have been 40C days in western suburbs in March in recent times, including 1998 and 2002, but not close in Sydney OH.
By contrast, I'd say the October record is a fairly weak one, considering 39-40C days have occurred in the 1st week of November, but just haven't crossed into late October.
The February record is the weakest though, as we saw earlier this year with the 2nd highest temp ever recorded in the Sydney Basin, and earlier again in 2004 with a 16 day heatwave, but neither event could penetrate OH.


Edited by DerekHV (22/07/2017 07:50)

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#1428646 - 22/07/2017 11:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 762
Loc: Cammeray
Agree that November is probably strong too but we almost beat it two years ago. Just a few tenths off

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#1428737 - 23/07/2017 22:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Saturday 29th has been looking pretty warm across NSW for the last few days on GFS with 925mb temps up to 20 degrees in the far west. Looking like possible 25-26 for Sydney but seabreezy on the coast so record could be spared.

But then a cold front after that but pretty lousy temp wise.


Edited by Wave Rider (23/07/2017 22:23)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428815 - 25/07/2017 10:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2948
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Both Access and GFS are trying hard to change the current pattern around the 1st August. As usual this far out take with a big pinch of salt.
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#1428818 - 25/07/2017 10:59 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Surely we will get a PROPER snowy cold change out here at least once in August. Maybe September instead grin

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#1428822 - 25/07/2017 12:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Don't hold your breathe Dave.
The sheer frustration of opening a synoptic page and seeing a summer like heatwave pattern superimposed on July. Pretty out there. If there is no flip soon it is going to be one hell of a fiery spring/summer. Its just so damn dry. Looking back at the spurt of cool, windy and wet that happened way back in April. It got ones hopes up for a solid winter with oodles of fronts. Wind. Rain and snow from Vic alps to southern QLd. Sigh
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#1428831 - 25/07/2017 13:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I hear you.

Honestly, today feels SPRING LIKE here already. I do think this winter will be one of the driest ever for out here. It would take a crazy turnaround in the patterns to change that.

I reckon we will PROBABLY see one half decent change in August but that might be "it".

We've had a cold winter here as far as night temps go. Averaging about -2 for nights - ca good 2 degrees colder than average.

BUT THE DAYS!!! - boy have they been just warm and sunny, cloudy days here this winter are like hens teeth.

Who knows - Spring may go cool and wet, who can tell!! smile

I feel (hope) the "dry" switch may get flicked off in either Spring or early Summer. Surely we couldn't have another Summer like last year straight up. frown

Out here only one weather word is on peoples lips, RAIN - really really needed inland.

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#1428833 - 25/07/2017 14:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
I see where you guys are coming from. The big dry is becoming really concerning, and I don't understand why there is just no moisture.

And high 20's for the coast like what could happen this weekend, in July is ****** up. But, from my point of view, I can't deny being excited about such warmth in winter. Possible 20-21C in Bathurst is weird to consider though.. It will feel HOT.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/07/2017 14:22)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428836 - 25/07/2017 14:54 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep shorts, thongs and singlet weather grin

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#1428838 - 25/07/2017 15:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 647
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
I see where you guys are coming from. The big dry is becoming really concerning, and I don't understand why there is just no moisture.


A consecutively very dry June and July simply has no precedent in rainfall records in this district. Its been a 'perfect storm' with the seasonal alignment of negative oceanic and atmospheric factors (neutral EPO; neutral-positive EIO; +SAM; Strong Blocking Highs). Sure, this has occurred before, but to see it sustained for so long over winter is notable.

The Cotton mob aren't that hopeful of much change soon, according to their latest summary of the long term modelling:

"Latest weather and climate news:
Neutral ENSO conditions likely for the spring of 2017, however the Indian Ocean Dipole forecast still leaning towards drier phase
Multi-week models showing little in terms of rainfall through to the second half of August - coupled with higher temperatures
Seasonal climate models showing the spring dry signal diminishing at the start of 2017 summer crop plant."

A small glimmer of light at the end. But that's way out at the lower edge of probability.

Maybe they're relying on the law of averages, aka, its gotta switch over to moisture sometime!

If you're a glass-half-full type then each dry day brings us one closer to rain. cool
_________________________
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#1428839 - 25/07/2017 15:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1829
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
The weekend hair dryer could be tempered by cloud cover in parts of NSW.
GFS says middle / high cloud cover on both Saturday and Sunday morning with a clear slot for both afternoons in Sydney at least. The potential is there for records to be broken.

Having said that I'm fearful of standing lee-wave cloud and greater high cloud coverage ruining any chance of maximum heating potential.
That and the 0900 temperature on Saturday could steal any record high minimum for Sunday.

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#1428840 - 25/07/2017 16:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Temps ratcheted today out west. A few approaching 27. Might see 30's within a few days in some places. Possibly some records. A subtle wind shift can change things though.
As so often happens during a heat dragging hot spell you can still have the heat under a high cloud pre frontal cloud structure. Wonder if that even tempers the heat when is a paper thin high cloud sky.
One issue not talked about much is the greater sun exposure people in these latitudes are subjecting themselves to in a month that is traditionally the cover up month. 25 or 26 make it reasonably comfortable to barbecue yourself at the beach.
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#1428845 - 25/07/2017 17:25 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The BOM are now going for a max of 26 across the metro area on Sunday, a 'courageous' forecast which would be a new record at OH if 26.0 is reached. The record at Sydney Airport is 27.0, set last year. At Bankstown it is 26.7 (80.0F) set on 24/7/1990, at Richmond it is 27.6, set at the old site on the same day.

Originally Posted By: Knot
...
The sheer frustration of opening a synoptic page and seeing a summer like heatwave pattern superimposed on July. Pretty out there.

Like it is for a Summer lover when they look at the synoptic chart in the warmer months and see a huge high plonked down in the Bight, low pressure in the Northern Tasman and long-fetch SE winds forecast to continue forever.

Originally Posted By: Knot
If there is no flip soon it is going to be one hell of a fiery spring/summer.

The pattern reminds me of late August 1995. That was during a record dry spell that lasted 47 days at OH, plus record high temps for August. It was followed by a cool wet September (average max 19.3, compared to 21.3 in August). The Summer that followed was pretty woeful as I recall, especially in December - cool, cloudy although not particularly wet, so probably lots of Bight highs and SE winds.

That might not happen. My 'feeling' is that we are in for a warm Spring, with a 'flip' occuring later in Spring when the highs slip South.

In the immediate future, GFS is showing a reasonable cool down in 7 days' time (like it always has recently), followed by more fronts in the second 8 days. We'll see how it looks later this week.

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#1428846 - 25/07/2017 17:55 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Steve777


Like it is for a Summer lover when they look at the synoptic chart in the warmer months and see a huge high plonked down in the Bight, low pressure in the Northern Tasman and long-fetch SE winds forecast to continue forever.



Touche`

Do you know Steve what each day would have to reach from now till the 31st in Sydney for an averaged max temp to be beaten? Is July 2013 the current record holder?


Edited by Knot (25/07/2017 18:00)
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#1428853 - 25/07/2017 18:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: Steve777


Like it is for a Summer lover when they look at the synoptic chart in the warmer months and see a huge high plonked down in the Bight, low pressure in the Northern Tasman and long-fetch SE winds forecast to continue forever.



Touche`

Do you know Steve what each day would have to reach from now till the 31st in Sydney for an averaged max temp to be beaten? Is July 2013 the current record holder?


I'm not Steve but I did some calculations (on excel because I'm lazy) and the last 6 days would have to average at least 22.6 degrees for the record to be broken and 22.0 for it to be matched. And yes 2013 is the record at 19.5 degrees.

And yep orangeroughy, so not a good combo of climate drivers.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/07/2017 18:29)
Edit Reason: missing word
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428854 - 25/07/2017 18:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Great stuff WR. Could be touch and go.
Thursday and Monday slated to be coolest of the following 6 days so that leaves 4 chances of reaching target with of course whopper Sunday decreasing the need for the other 3 to reach 22.6 Opticast now backing 26 for Sydney Sunday. Tends to be a little more on the money daytime temps wise. Hope no shannagins with the temp. You know, bobble t.v head rounding numbers up.
One more bit of pop quiz. Which year has the July with most days 20 or above?


Edited by Knot (25/07/2017 18:35)
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#1428860 - 25/07/2017 18:48 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I'll just add to WR's calculation that if the remaining days of July are as forecast, OH will just miss out on a record monthly average (i.e. 19.4 vs 19.5). If each day is a bit over a degree warmer on average than the forecast (entirely possible), the record will be equalled.

The average minimum, if remaining nights are as forecast, will be 8.5, still above the average (8.1) but slightly below recent averages (8.7, 1981-2010). So the monthly average (of min max) will be high but not a record.

Record number of 20+ days in July? I think we'll need someone from the BOM to answer that.

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#1428862 - 25/07/2017 18:59 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
I'm in the process of going through every year to determine that lol. Will take a while but I'm interested and determined.

I reckon Obs Hill won't top the record for average max in July 2017. Tomorrow is forecasted to be 22 but will likely only reach 20C, but perhaps that will get cancelled out in later days. For example Saturday's 22C forecast could reach 27 or 28 and add a couple for Sunday as well. But the elephant in the room is Monday 31st where it could be sub 15C, so (28+15)/2 = 21.5 so these days will cancel one another out anyway, at this stage.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428865 - 25/07/2017 19:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Interesting WR and Steve.
A lot of Julys to wade thru WR.
I look fwd to the most days in July 20 or over stats.

Anymore word on this Sam index thingie?
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#1428875 - 25/07/2017 20:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Love reading all these stats guys. Appreciate all the work you guy's put in.
I think we'll miss out on the max July average because from an amateurs point of view, the days are struggling to reach the max's due to the morning's still being so cold. The warmer air from the NW hasn't kicked in yet, so night time minimum's are remaining cold.

I've been really enjoying these crystal clear winter days with stunning blue skies. The reason I'm enjoying them so much is that there has not been any controlled burning so far this winter. I would have thought these were ideal conditions.

Well, lo and behold, I just heard on the news that Sydney is expected to become quite smoky in the next few days due to controlled burning commencing. The area stated was the north west of the metro. My area.
Just spiffing.

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#1428876 - 25/07/2017 20:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8299
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
OCF spot on today, 20.6C just as forecast. Done pretty well in recent days, so willing to put some faith in it. 22.0C Sat and 25.6C for Sun. Cloud cover will be another factor, plenty of it around over the w'end before setting in proper on Monday.

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#1428877 - 25/07/2017 20:18 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4064
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Homer
The reason I'm enjoying them so much is that there has not been any controlled burning so far this winter. I would have thought these were ideal conditions.

Well, lo and behold, I just heard on the news that Sydney is expected to become quite smoky in the next few days due to controlled burning commencing. The area stated was the north west of the metro. My area.
Just spiffing.


Its probably better to burn at this time of the year than say late October or November!!

And yes we have a schedule burn for Hawks Nest tomorrow. frown

But agreed these days have been crystal clear.


Edited by EddyG (25/07/2017 20:19)
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#1428879 - 25/07/2017 20:52 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Well I sifted through all 158 July's and there are a few key points and some stats that surprised me. 20+ degree days are expected in July and it is unusual for them to not occur. Also, the most amount of July day's over 20 were not neccessarily recent.

Unsurprisingly July 2013 took top spot with 12 days.

Top July's for number of temps over 20:
2013- 12 days
2005- 10 days
1921- 9 days
1928, 1975, 1988- 8 days



Some other key points:
- The last July with no 20+ degree days was back in 1984.
- July's below 20 were common before 1918.
- Since 1918, there have only been 13 Julys which haven't hit 20.
- Before 1918, 36 Julys had no 20 degree days (maybe due to site change?)
- There have been quite a few 25 degree days, as early as 1926 & 1931
- In the last 20 years there's been an average of 5 days over 20.
- So about one-sixth of the month should have days in the 20's.

_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428883 - 25/07/2017 21:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Meanwhile, Perth is doing its best impression of Sydney in March (if rather colder), with measurable rain on 20/26 days in July so far and sunshine hours tracking under 5 per day.

EDIT: Good stuff WR.

EDIT2: July 2017 for Sydney has 7 20+ days so far, with 4 to go if the forecast comes off. So it comes second.

EDIT3: when I was young and degrees were Fahrenheit, 70 in June and July in Sydney was unusual. Now it's commonplace.


Edited by Steve777 (25/07/2017 21:08)

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#1428885 - 25/07/2017 21:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
I back up Steve's sentiments. Nice work WR!!! Thanks, and interesting.

Eddy, no complaints about the controlled burning, although I have done so before.
I was more making the point that it has been a far more pleasant winter without them. The stunningly beautiful blue skies have not been spoilt like they have in the past this winter.


Edited by Homer (25/07/2017 21:12)

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#1428886 - 25/07/2017 21:17 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Thanks guys, I always find it interesting to look at stats like this when I have the time.

Btw 06z GFS is not letting go of this 'heat wave' with 18C at 925mb over Sydney on both Saturday and Sunday. I'm contemplating making a thread, since this is locked in I would say.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428887 - 25/07/2017 21:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Go for it WR.
Why not? It's a winter heatwave.

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#1429043 - Today at 08:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4064
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
The first week of August is looking good for rain, not huge amounts and west of the divide should see some falls too!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 41.0mm
YTD 997.3mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1429053 - Today at 09:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
To me the patterns are changing for August. Long term GFS showing different progressions of systems in my eyes.

Showing more moisture about than for many months. Hopefully a really good cold change around the middle of the month - but that's just "hope" talking smile

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#1429057 - Today at 09:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 198
Loc: Newcastle
How often would the blue mountains have a winter without a settled snow fall?

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#1429059 - Today at 09:45 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Seeing that delicious low that will be mostly fended off by high like every front this winter is infuriating.


Edited by Knot (Today at 09:48)
_________________________
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#1429064 - Today at 09:54 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Not often at all I reckon SM. However settled falls in the BM's have been getting lighter/fewer.

Katoomba less and less, Blackheath generally still gets a couple of half decent falls a year.

However this year will be touch and go it seems.

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#1429074 - Today at 11:56 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5294
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Hey Orangeroughy (in reply to my previous post), my judgement is based off just watching the patterns as a forecaster + current fortnightly models (which indicate a cut off low event in early August now bringing some good rain to NSW/VIC), plus watching the CFS model (at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...xpos=0&ypos=492).
This model has also been going hard on a cooler October (though it has backed off a little lately) + wetter spring for a while, so will be interesting to see what happens smile The recent runs have really upped the rain for August, which only a couple of weeks ago was really dry for this part of the world.


Edited by Ben (Today at 11:58)

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#1429082 - Today at 13:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 647
Loc: Orange, NSW
Thanks Ben. Appreciate your update. cool
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