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#1428112 - 16/07/2017 08:36 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1598
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
A long time farmer resident at Boisdale said to me a while back, "We seem to be in a state of drought broken by the odd flood" in a humourous way.

Good frost last night and bright calm sunny morning !

Some S.A.M. info, the big lows seem to be getting further northward onto mainland Aus, as an observation, might be wishful thinking.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.shtml
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1428113 - 16/07/2017 08:50 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1598
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Should add, S.A.M. and A.A.O. are the same data, just different terminology for the weather pattern/model.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1428115 - 16/07/2017 09:10 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Overnight low of 2.4c up here.
No were near as cold as the valley or
Nilma which were both down to -3 😨😨

Hopefully some rain on the way with these
Up and coming fronts

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#1428118 - 16/07/2017 09:39 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1598
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Next weekends front looks to drop a little rain in N/E Vic but otherwise the High wins again with that one.....at this stage....still a week off and it can change.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1428119 - 16/07/2017 09:40 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Could be some low level snow on
Wednesday going off access g this
Morning, with the 528 line coming up
Brushing Wilsons prom?

The front comes surging straight up from
Direct south

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#1428120 - 16/07/2017 09:46 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1598
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Got the fingers crossed dooga' but here not much rain around, should be good snow anywhere the moisture is with cold air like that.

Your locale (to our W) has been doing much better with rain lately.

Better get the skies out grin
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1428122 - 16/07/2017 10:03 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Samboz - yeah unfortunately the pattern
At this stage dosent favoure u guys out
East and from what your saying things are getting
Desperate out your way for rain!! Fingers crossed
U can get at least something over the next week
Or so 😀 Or have the models change in a
More favourable way for your area!👍

In regards to my local area, yes we have faired
Better than out east but even we are a long way
Down on rainfall for this time of year!! Most of the
Dams around here are only half full and at this
Time of year are normally overflowing.
Ground is hard and is usually soaking wet and sponge.

Not sure about cracking the skis out haha
I hope so though😀
But if the charts hold firm then we should
See some flurries ❄️❄️

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#1428132 - 16/07/2017 13:37 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2211
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Overcast of 13c ..

Very disappointment that upper low gets bigger once reach East Coast to past Tasmaian sea to New Zealand.

The Stubborn High Pressure is blame make cold uppers weaker...

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#1428136 - 16/07/2017 16:34 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5716
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 4.1C, reached a top of only 13.3C here in Belgrave today. A horribly cold day out there; it started mostly sunny but became increasingly cloudy as the day progressed. The Sun has managed to break through the cloudcover atm. The wind has a sharp chill to it, and it was kinda blustery this morning. poke

Currently around 9C.

Looking forward to midnight tonight, as it means we're halfway through Winter 2017!! grin

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#1428141 - 16/07/2017 17:50 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1598
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Samboz - ...Or have the models change in a More favourable way for your area!...


This morning the BOM had the next five consecutive days with 60% chance of rain, two of those 60% days left by this evening frown

We'll get bgr all this week, next week looking worse... grin

WZ's GFS (Ag map) looks OK, be a miracle if it's right.



Edited by samboz (16/07/2017 17:54)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1428143 - 16/07/2017 18:10 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6415
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Another frost here, lovely calm sunny day followed (would have been great down on the Gippsland Lakes).

Despite the sunshine, a 13C max saw hands-in-pockets after 3:30pm here.

Many of us oldies are saying these frosts remind us of 40+ years ago when we were kids. ....which is pretty much in line with the sunspots (google them).

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#1428173 - 17/07/2017 08:10 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5716
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.5C, currently around 9C, windy and partly cloudy.

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#1428231 - 17/07/2017 18:46 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2211
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Warning Warning ., Had powerful gusty windy with hail lighting thunderstorm...



Edited by chasers addict (17/07/2017 18:46)

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#1428235 - 17/07/2017 19:05 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2211
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...

Hail last 10mins very quick dump.

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#1428237 - 17/07/2017 19:25 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yep lots of lightning and thunder then hail wind and rain, only small hail
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1428238 - 17/07/2017 19:27 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1598
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Wow ca, its pelted down!!

Dry but a little breezy earlier, easy 16 here today, didn't check.

Forecast better now, 80% 0 - 4mm Wed and 70% 0 - 5mm Thur.

Max 11C on Thursday will be a cool one.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1428242 - 17/07/2017 20:02 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2211
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hail is likely for East and Melbourne as cells is fast moving..

I saw wall clouds and lucky Bendigo city lights shows the clouds and was worried told my wife put Car in Garage as cant prove what size hail might be...as only small hail that's good...

8mm out hail storm to bring 40mm for July and only need another
17.8mm for average month.

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#1428243 - 17/07/2017 20:08 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2211
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bendigo locals saying in Facebook news saying " Why no BOM warning for Thunderstorms..

I picked up Thunderstorms around Horsham about 4pm on radar.

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#1428251 - 17/07/2017 22:29 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 496
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Cause they only warn for SEVERE Thunderstorms which is.
Large hail that is greater than 2cms
Damaging winds 90/km or greater
Heavy rainfall leading to major Flash Flooding

General thunderstorms do not get a warning

The cold and dry continues shaping up as one of the worst winter for N Vic and inlad SA and NSW one of driest ever and next 10 days or so show nothing.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1428258 - 18/07/2017 00:28 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5716
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a high of 15.1C here in Belgrave yesterday. Blustery and mostly cloudy with a few occasional showers, but also with sunny breaks especially in the afternoon. smile

Despite the wind chill it felt a little mild, almost spring-like! Well, we are technically past halfway through winter! grin

I noticed a fair bit of convection about the place while at work, and it got quite dark and stormy looking at times! We had a few gusty showers roll through during my evening tennis lesson around 7:15pm, then an hour later we had the remnants of the line of thunderstorms move through. No thunder or lightning and very little rain unfortunately; it sure looked promising on radar beforehand. frown

Currently around 10C and blustery.

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