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#1428583 - 21/07/2017 14:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8303
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Still skeptical about the 4. OCF has slightly upped the city minimum to 6.6C.

Battle of the models I guess. The wind will also have to die down by evening.

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#1428585 - 21/07/2017 15:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2605
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
I'd expect an upgrade to 6c or 7c at the 4pm.

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#1428587 - 21/07/2017 16:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2605
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Well, looks like most areas are about 2c warmer than yesterday. Still looks like it should be the coldest morning of the winter for some.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (21/07/2017 16:38)

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#1428588 - 21/07/2017 16:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1819
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Norah tapped out below average. Sheesh. What does it take for Obs Hill to record a below av July day. Already well above average there for day temps and this forecast warm period is gonna blow things right out of the water.
I certainly wouldnt want the low pressure team as my pick to win the weather league. Wooden spoon at this rate


Edited by Knot (21/07/2017 16:51)
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1428590 - 21/07/2017 17:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6001
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
High pressure always wins in the weather league. It's just something we have to put up with in the mid-latitudes.

Going to be a chilly night here I reckon. Very dry airmass tonight, but problem could be wind.


Edited by Wave Rider (21/07/2017 17:02)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428592 - 21/07/2017 17:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1819
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
You gotta a prob with wind WR.
Lay on you back and draw knees up to chest...
ahh never mind lol
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1428596 - 21/07/2017 17:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3349
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The OH average July max of 16.4 is pretty meaningless because of a site move in 1917. That bumped up the average max by nearly 2 degrees from about 15 to nearly 17. The old site, just down the hill, must have been a paricularly cool one, rather like my balcony on the shady side of the building. I understamd the old site was very exposed whereas the 'new' (100 year old) site is sheltered and sunny. The average for 1921-2010 is about 17.2, which makes more sense. Even on that basis, today was warm. OH is warm in a Southerly, especially when it is sunny. Today it was the local hotspot.

=====

I see that there's some cloud marching Northwards just off the coast. Some of that will probably drift ashore at some stage to take the edge off tonight's cold, at least near the coast.

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#1428599 - 21/07/2017 18:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1833
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Steve777
the old site was very exposed whereas the 'new' (100 year old) site is sheltered and sunny.

It certainly doesn't seem to be sheltered in Summer though!
Also takes a lot longer to warm up on Winter mornings than other places. I think this is because of the huge Moreton Bay figs casting some shade.

It definitely gets sheltered in Southerlies but I think people overstate the UHI effect at OH when the wind blows from other directions such as from the West.

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#1428600 - 21/07/2017 19:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5296
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Yeah I've noticed OH is typically warmer than elsewhere in Sydney during southerlies - today a prime example.

In regards to that UHI IMO I feel that's correct to an extent. In my mind the fact the westerly-northwesterly travels over a lot more urban development/concrete now over the inner west and western Sydney would mean it would be warmer now when it reaches the site now than in the past. I think a combination of that, UHI plus the site change results in pretty much every month at OH being warmer than average these days.

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#1428609 - 21/07/2017 20:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Ben]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1819
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Ben
Yeah I've noticed OH is typically warmer than elsewhere in Sydney during southerlies - today a prime example.

In regards to that UHI IMO I feel that's correct to an extent. In my mind the fact the westerly-northwesterly travels over a lot more urban development/concrete now over the inner west and western Sydney would mean it would be warmer now when it reaches the site now than in the past. I think a combination of that, UHI plus the site change results in pretty much every month at OH being warmer than average these days.





Yessss!!!!
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#1428610 - 21/07/2017 20:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5089
Loc: Dural
Gunna be a cold one tonight.
Already 6.5 degs here. Coldest at this time of night all winter.

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#1428611 - 21/07/2017 20:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3349
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
If OH wants to get down to 5 it needs to get a wiggle on. It's still 12.7.

I've also noticed the way that site is cool to warm up in the morning in Winter, but quickly warms up after about midday. Conversely, it is slow to cool down in the evening. It is exposed to the East and West, I find the argument that urban development (all that asphalt and concrete) has made it warmer in a Westerly plausible (Knot said something similar recently). The Airport seems to be even more affected in that regard. It is the hotspot in Westerlies in all seasons.

=======

The models now seem to show a cool change Wednesday evening, with the blue line near Sydney. Once again, moisture seems to be lacking.



Edited by Steve777 (21/07/2017 20:57)

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#1428614 - 21/07/2017 21:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1819
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Don't have to be a patent office clerk to realise that less trees and ground cover in Sydney's west and north west causes winds from that direction to not be cooled a little by blowing thru transpired water vapour. A large Gum pumps gallons out per day. More in the heat of summer. And that vapour reduces heat energy by absorbtion. No trees=more heat when the conditions are ripe

Just waiting for Blair Trewin to pop in and have some stat that suggests everything at Obs Hill is hunky dory. (but he might be on strike lol). This is a big deal. Is Sydney heating due to a trace gas increase or is it the result of tar and cement and less greenery


Edited by Knot (21/07/2017 21:25)
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#1428617 - 21/07/2017 21:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3349
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Knot
This is a big deal. Is Sydney heating due to a trace gas increase or is it the result of tar and cement and less greenery


The answer is probably both. OH cannot be used to monitor the effects of increases in a certain trace gas that shall remain nameless, because it has been greatly affected by the growth of Sydney from a city of about 80,000 to one approaching 5 million.

The trace gas might have more impact in Summer, when maxima are much more affected by sea temperatures. It's effects would also be more noticeable away from development, at rural locations.

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#1428620 - 21/07/2017 23:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6001
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Min has dipped to 3.0C here so far.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428625 - 22/07/2017 07:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Morham Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 37
Loc: Penrith, NSW
It's interesting see satellite views of sydney from 1970s/80s to now.

The 'greying' of the land from development is interesting. Certainly all this concrete and road must contribute to warmer micro climates, and an overall warmer climate in the sydney basin.

This gif is really low quality and doesn't show it well enough.

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#1428626 - 22/07/2017 07:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 722
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Not as cold this morning as was predicted, no frost either as predicted.
July seems to be tracking slightly above average overall, but still some way short of July 2013 which was the record at the old Maitland station. (which was shut in July last year)

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#1428627 - 22/07/2017 07:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5089
Loc: Dural
Big frost here this morning.
Coldest night of the year with a min of 1.2 degs.


Edited by Homer (22/07/2017 07:43)

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#1428629 - 22/07/2017 07:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1819
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
A respectable - 3.9 at Cessnock

Penrith didnt go sub zero as forecast.
Goulburn airport coldest at -9.4 brrr
Certainly a different Sydney today to what it was when Obs Hill founded. Even some of the semi rural sites in the basin will be encroached by development in the not to distant future.
I remember a time when limiting population was a plank in the Greenie party. Not anymore. Its open slather for the every tom dick and harry to come here now as part of their no borders mantra. More people. More urban development. Less water vapour in the summer heat. Hotter summers.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1428632 - 22/07/2017 08:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Morham Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 37
Loc: Penrith, NSW
I was looking forward to that -4 forecast they had for Penrith. That would have broken the human records. Which then changed to -2 late yesterday.

Didn't drop below 0. But was our coldest night of the year i think.

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