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#1428830 - 25/07/2017 13:24 Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A howling "warm" NW'ly prevailing for most of the day over such a wide area???? - unusual weather!!!


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#1428832 - 25/07/2017 13:48 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Indeed P lol
Rediculous looking set up for winter!!
Going to set some temp records one
Would think for this time of year?

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#1428841 - 25/07/2017 16:45 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 641
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
A nice little line of storms developing heading into Melb Metro.

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#1428848 - 25/07/2017 17:58 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Deep rumbles of thunder not far to the
South west of me now 😀😀

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#1428851 - 25/07/2017 18:07 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
It seems that July 26 is a day for wild weather events! I seem to remember a couple of July 26ths have been wild like this! I remember the most epic of days on the 18th July 2013.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1428856 - 25/07/2017 18:35 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: The Fishman]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
It seems that July 26 is a day for wild weather events! I seem to remember a couple of July 26ths have been wild like this! I remember the most epic of days on the 18th July 2013.


Don't mean to say you had rain f'man on an 18th, OMG !!
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1428858 - 25/07/2017 18:39 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Looks like Melbourne could reach 25 on Saturday and 26C would not be impossible. That would smash its current record of 23.1 in 1975.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428866 - 25/07/2017 19:21 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Wave Rider]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 256
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Looks like Melbourne could reach 25 on Saturday and 26C would not be impossible. That would smash its current record of 23.1 in 1975.


Where do you see that Waverider? Low 20's maybe I'm guessing, but 25C?
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Wunderground

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#1428868 - 25/07/2017 19:26 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Weather_Viewer]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Looks like Melbourne could reach 25 on Saturday and 26C would not be impossible. That would smash its current record of 23.1 in 1975.


Where do you see that Waverider? Low 20's maybe I'm guessing, but 25C?


00z GFS is going 17C at 925mb over Melb at 4pm Saturday which would probably equate to 25C at the surface, but maybe only 24 in this situation because of the very low pressure so 925mb is lower in elevation than usual.

That's at this stage though. The timing of the change is crucial. If it's pushed a few hours forward then low 20's or less than 20 it will be.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/07/2017 19:28)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428896 - 25/07/2017 22:59 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5760
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I thought Melbourne's record July high was 23.3C, set on July 18th 2013, someone confirm this please?

Certainly looks like a potentially major winter storm on the way for Southern Australia this weekend, with an exceptionally powerful northerly airflow strengthening across Victoria ahead of a deep surge of cold polar air from Antarctica; the blue line pushes deep into NSW/ACT on Sunday! Currently going for 19C for Melbourne and 28C for Mildura on Saturday!! Could be some very dangerous gales about btw! eek

Today's been almost springlike for sure. Overnight low of 10.1C, my warmest night this winter so far and my first 10C+ night since May 27th when we dipped to 10.9C. Reached a rather mild top of 18.2C here in Belgrave today! smile

A blustery, stormy day to sum it up. It was mostly clear at dawn, with a beautiful sunrise over the Dandenong Ranges and Yarra Valley as I caught the train to work in Box Hill. By 9am it was getting cloudy and we had showers and the odd storm roll through.

The rest of the day was a partly cloudy with sunny breaks. But by 3pm I noticed convection flaring away to the southwest. Over the next three hours a huge wall of cumulonimbus storm clouds could be seen getting closer. By 5pm it started getting very dark, with the impending storm catching the sunset just before 5:30pm! smile

The thunderstorm finally struck at about 6pm! We had roughly 10-20 minutes of loud thunder, infrequent but spectacular lightning, strong wind and heavy rainfall. Good thing the storm cleared just as quickly as it came; the stars were out when I left work for home around 6:30pm.

The trains were delayed by about 10 minutes because of the weather btw.

Back home, the storm was just as intense here as it was at work! The peak rainfall rate was 15mm/hr, with 3.2mm collected.

Currently around 11C.

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#1428900 - 25/07/2017 23:37 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
I thought Melbourne's record July high was 23.3C, set on July 18th 2013, someone confirm this please?


Weatherzone said 23.1 in July 1975, but yes you're right about the date because when I checked Climate Data Online after you mentioned it, it said the record was actually 23.8 at Olympic Park on July 18th 2013.

Even then, it will probably still get beaten on Saturday.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/07/2017 23:37)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428945 - 26/07/2017 14:16 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2245
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
We are sick of upper low doesn't want go inland SE Australia as always jumps and grow stronger over Tasmania sea to New Zealand.

Yesterday was very warm of 19c and i would be surprise if strong NW wind this weekend bring spring like warmth to most Victoria.

Today nice of 15c

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#1428960 - 26/07/2017 19:29 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS still shows a "wild Saturday":


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#1429001 - 27/07/2017 12:32 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Current AccR shows significant divergence of the strong NW'ly gale as it crosses the divide then exits over Gippsland/E Gippsland on Saturday.

This wind might stay substantially aloft??? - Bet we hear a fair bit about the "Riviera" on the media Saturday evening!

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#1429107 - 28/07/2017 19:10 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest AccR still supports a wild windy "warm" day tomorrow??:


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#1429128 - 28/07/2017 22:46 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5760
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I've very busy lately yet again, but here's my daily weather posts from here in Belgrave:

Wednesday July 26th 2017
Low: 8.4C High: 14.6C Rain: 3.2mm

Following the rather springlike conditions the day before (mild and breezy with spectacular thunderstorms at sunset), it was cold, wet and windy with sunshine alternating with showers. The heaviest shower activity occurred around midday - quite a decent band of activity, looked almost like a string of storms - with conditions clearing during the afternoon and evening.

I noticed a few beautiful rainbows as the band of showers at lunchtime swept through btw, but pity I was stuck in work at Box Hill so I couldn't get any photos. frown


Thursday July 27th 2017
Low: 5.1C High: 14.5C Rain: 1mm

A borderline nippy morning, although I was expecting it to get much colder, probably to about 2-3C with possible frost. On the contrary it was breezy with winds out of the north, which explains for the lack of frost and fog, but the breeze had a most unpleasant chill to it. frown

I left home for work around 6:30am. It was mostly clear at first but high cloud started arriving from the northwest as last night's cold front approached; the clouds were tinged pink and yellow between Ringwood and Mitcham around 7:15am, with the sun rising over Melbourne 15 minutes later. smile

Cloud increased throughout the day and it became quite blustery. I left Box Hill for home at 5:30pm, and the skies briefly cleared but it then turned cloudy once more. I reached home by about 6:45pm and about an hour later I left for Dandenong; by this time it started raining.

The weather really worsened during the evening as the front moved into Melbourne; the whole time I was in Dandenong it was windy and the rain was quite heavy, making the drive home after 10:30pm a bit nerve-wracking; no thunderstorms though! eek


Friday July 28th 2017
Low: 6.9C High: 15.6C Rain: 10.6mm

The front moved struck our area at about 12:30am, accompanied by squally winds and heavy showers. A few showers followed during the morning but thankfully the worst of the weather had cleared by the time I left home for work at 6:30am. smile

Still a chilly start to today, with some beautiful sunlit coldie cumulonimbus rolling through Melbourne's southeast suburbs and Mornington Peninsula (plus Phillip and French Islands and the Bass Coast) around mid-morning. Pity I couldn't get any pics from my workplace in Box Hill. frown

The low stratocumulus and cumulus that followed in the colder air behind last night's cold front gradually cleared as the day progressed as winds started swinging back northerly ahead of the impending major winter storm now over the Bight! smile

High cloud started arriving from the northwest around midday, increasing and thickening by mid-afternoon, although I got to enjoy some wonderful mid-winter sunshine for roughly 10 minutes during one of my breaks around 4pm. It was only around 15-16C in Box Hill (15.5C at Bulleen) but thanks to the relatively gentle northerly winds and abundant sunshine the air felt noticeably mild, almost springlike. No windcheater needed!! grin

Remarkably still out there, chilly but not nippy. Also a very dense veil of mid-level and high-level hanging overhead, with the moon reduced to a mere faint smudge. Currently around 10C with the barometer reading 1014hPa.


Hard to believe that tomorrow's going to be a very stormy day with dangerous gales! Good thing I'm able to stay at home. smile

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#1429130 - 28/07/2017 22:48 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5760
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS

For people in the Central, South West and parts of the East Gippsland, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:43 pm Friday, 28 July 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A strong cold front will approach Victoria during Saturday morning, reaching the southwest of the State during Saturday afternoon before clearing to the east during the early hours of Sunday morning.

DAMAGING WINDS: Northerly winds averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 105 km/h are expected to develop about elevated parts of the western and central districts early Saturday morning, extending to remaining parts of the western and central districts by around sunrise and into eastern districts by the afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS: Northerly winds averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts of around 130 km/h are possible about the Alpine peaks from Saturday evening until early Sunday morning.

Winds are expected to ease over western parts of the warning area late Saturday afternoon, over central parts during the evening, and over the eastern ranges early Sunday morning.

Locations which may be affected include Kyneton, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wonthaggi and Bacchus Marsh.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Saturday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1429144 - 29/07/2017 10:45 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Wow already savagely windy at Melbourne Ap with sustained winds of 76km/h and gusts up to 100km/h.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1429146 - 29/07/2017 11:32 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Dead calm, warm and sunny here at Maffra atm.

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#1429160 - 29/07/2017 15:11 Re: Vic - wild "September-like" NW'lies: Sat 29/7/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Calm at Boisdale to round 1330hrs, strengthened now to a blustery northerly, saw 23.4C round 1400hrs.

Therm is nothing flash, a radio remote on shaded back porch open to weather.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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