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#1428892 - 25/07/2017 22:08 NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
GFS has been showing 18 degrees at 925mb for many days now for Sydney and surrounds which could translate to about 27 or 28C on both days which would break some records by quite a decent margin. There are even 925mb temps up to 20C in the far west so places like Mildura may see in excess of 30.

Not to mention winds could also be very strong in the southern and western areas, along with the coast in some areas which traditionally get strong NW winds like Newcastle.

Post observations here, and I may add a bit more later
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428893 - 25/07/2017 22:40 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4269
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
GFS has Newcastle under some solid cloud for the majority of the weekend, especially Sunday whereas Sydney and the Illawarra is reasonably free of cloud for the weekend.
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Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1428894 - 25/07/2017 22:45 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Ah yeah, I didn't pick up on that but I see what you mean now. Hopefully for your sake you get mostly sunny days so you can head to the beach.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428895 - 25/07/2017 22:56 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4269
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
I can head to the beach pretty well anytime, for instance I had 7 lawns to mow today, I quit after one job and headed to the national park.

But tomorrow GFS run could well have the cloud further south or north, I look forward to tomorrows run!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1428897 - 25/07/2017 23:08 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
That sounds pretty chilled out Eddy. Starting up a lawn mowing business?
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428899 - 25/07/2017 23:11 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
eauetsoleil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2016
Posts: 209
Loc: Bexley North
Sea Temp off Sydney is currently about 20C close to shore according to
http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/beachapp/oceanbulletin.aspx
but with some colder currents sitting closer to shore according to the BOM site, I'll be ready for as low as 18.5C if I head to the beach on Sunday with the forecast 3-4ft swell, for a first ever July Sydney beach swim/surf for me.

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#1428912 - 26/07/2017 08:19 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1852
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Obs Hill's habit of a slow morning warm up will bite into the 9am reset today.
Lowest overnight I can see is 14.2 but 11.0 will be the 'official' figure.

Other places such as Mascot won't be robbed.

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#1428942 - 26/07/2017 14:04 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek


Saw this little gem on the ads haha. What a joke. If only our Decembers were as mild.

SMH, media already got a hold of it..

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#1428953 - 26/07/2017 16:40 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4269
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Now it looks like the Metro & Hunter will be cloud free for the majority of the weekend.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1428954 - 26/07/2017 16:54 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Yippee. Daytime heat might be more without cloud but at least Sat night be ezier to put up with.

@WR. Obs Hill didnt hit 22 or 22.6 today so that changes the equation a little over the next 5 days there. As said before. If forecast pans out then its Friday Sat and Sunday that will have to turn it on to beat the 2013 record. Assuming Obs hits 19 tomorrow, Friday 22 and Monday another 19. What would Sat and Sunday have to get to beat record?

@ Warren. The media subscribe to the chorus of the Newcastle Song. 'Don't you ever let a chance go by...'


Edited by Knot (26/07/2017 16:55)
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#1428974 - 27/07/2017 02:05 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Knot, they would have to reach at least 54C collectively to beat the record assuming that the forecast for the other days is what you said. So it would have to be at least 27C on both days, or 26 then 28 or 25 then 29C etc.

It most likely won't happen, and the forecast for tomorrow (today now) and Friday have downgraded by a degree. Obs Hill is now forecasted to be 21C on Saturday and 26C on Sunday. I would personally add a couple to both days so Saturday 23C and Sunday 28C is what I'm going for. Saturday will be a nice day with light afternoon seabreezes but then the surge of heat coupled with strong winds moves in through the night and into Sunday.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1429004 - 27/07/2017 12:40 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Good detective work WR. Tall order to get a pair of days that high. Although if Obs is warmer today than forecast and tomorrow is heaps warmer than maybe do able but still prob no cigar (except for a bondi one with all the beach goers on the weeken he he). Now ferret out that most days 20 or over in July dude
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1429035 - 27/07/2017 20:46 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
I think a July averaged record is pretty well schlonged now given Obs came in under the forecast. And that is good news to me. i Dont like seeing records tumble too quickly. Sunday still a possible for a an all time high though. And thats cool as it has been a fairly long standing one. But its gotta be convincing. Not 26. Not 26.1 etc. Sydney is too altered in 27 years for there not to be some effect on nor west driven temps. 27 would be convincing
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1429037 - 27/07/2017 21:05 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
And I think looking at the latest 06z GFS the record will in fact be touch and go with a max of 25 or 26C. 28C has looked possible for many days but not now.

So at this stage it will now not be a 'convincing' record or even any record.


Edited by Wave Rider (27/07/2017 21:10)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1429040 - 27/07/2017 22:28 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4269
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
And I think looking at the latest 06z GFS the record will in fact be touch and go with a max of 25 or 26C. 28C has looked possible for many days but not now.

So at this stage it will now not be a 'convincing' record or even any record.


Yep doesn't look as good now, Sunday looks to be cloudy all day.

I'll go for a top of 24c.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1429041 - 28/07/2017 07:08 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 779
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
I often look at the "heat engine room" area, around the Cameron Corner (border NSW-SA-QLD) and surrounds, inland taipan territory, and how much heat is going to be directed this way.
Places like Birdsville are looking at 4 days in a row over 30C, and Bourke 28C for Sunday.
It looks like the NW airflow will be enough to break records.
Still, the build up and anticipation is nothing like August 1995, or other times, when you could just smell the record coming.

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#1429047 - 28/07/2017 09:09 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: DerekHV

Still, the build up and anticipation is nothing like August 1995, or other times, when you could just smell the record coming.


I know what you mean actually. Like today for example is too cold so it doesn't have that anticipation of some new records being broken in just 2 days time.

Yeah Eddy I see what you mean with the cloud cover. So I would actually also go 24C at this stage.


Edited by Wave Rider (28/07/2017 09:10)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1429068 - 28/07/2017 10:48 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4269
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Yeah Eddy I see what you mean with the cloud cover. So I would actually also go 24C at this stage.


Yep its just a wait and see game now!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1429086 - 28/07/2017 14:46 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Thought Moree might have clinched its July max record today but looks to have peaked at 26.5 as the wind wraps to the west and cools a bit. But its almost certain to do it over the next two days unless the low in the bight speeds up pushes a little further nth wards and budges the nor westers more into the far north of the state and the nth coast. Time will tell

The gradient is the biggest this winter with a diff approaching 80 hPa.


Edited by Knot (28/07/2017 14:56)
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1429088 - 28/07/2017 15:28 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I was surprised at how windy today was and how cool it felt. The Sydney area only made it to 19-20 today after a relatively warm start. The chart shows a sneaky cold front off Sydney at 10:00AM.

Will be nice to feel 26 (degrees) again on Sunday.

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