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#1429163 - 29/07/2017 15:22 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Current site record for Mildura today. There is a warmer temp from 1892. So not a record for Mildura itself. Wish bom officials would point out to journalists that its a site record and that a warmer temp is listed from an earlier closed site. grrrrrr
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#1429165 - 29/07/2017 15:26 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6437
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan

I barely pay any attention to this forum and I know you said Sunday.


Yep apart from more than 5 days ago, the posts where I had said 27-28C were talking about Sunday.

But now I would go 26C tomorrow as per forecast, but I reckon 27C is a good possibility if there is less cloud or something.

Today only has reached 21C (as per forecast) at Obs Hill but yet it has reached 22C here. But, it could still get warmer given the 850mb temps are warming rather quickly this afternoon.

Knot, you always have to approach those older records (before 1910) with caution as I'm pretty sure there wasn't standard Stevenson screens back then so maximums were probably higher than they should have been.


Edited by Wave Rider (29/07/2017 15:28)
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#1429166 - 29/07/2017 15:32 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
rain gauge Offline
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Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Looks like it won't reach over 22 tomorrow anywhere except the north west of NSW.
Most likely lol
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#1429168 - 29/07/2017 16:00 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5283
Loc: Dural
The approaching cloud mass, which a few here mentioned a couple of days ago, could just keep a lid on things.
BTW, a nice frost here this morning!!

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#1429173 - 29/07/2017 16:34 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
AccessR temp chart 1pm have no where near the 26 forecast for Newcastle tomorrow. Neither does WZ or windy.com. I'm confused.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (29/07/2017 16:35)

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#1429174 - 29/07/2017 16:36 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney's skies are full of smoke from controlled burns.

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#1429175 - 29/07/2017 16:45 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6437
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
AccessR temp chart 1pm have no where near the 26 forecast for Newcastle tomorrow. Neither does WZ or windy.com. I'm confused.


Yes but the temps at 925mb are looking to be up to 18C which translates to about 28C in the right conditions. So I would subtract one from that given it's winter and shorter daylight hours and then another for cloud cover. So 26C seems close to the mark to me.
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2017-18 storm total= 5
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#1429182 - 29/07/2017 17:49 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5283
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Sydney's skies are full of smoke from controlled burns.


There were certainly some decent burns today. One was just a few km's north of me here at Dural and the smoke plume was thick and huge. Thankfully, I haven't smelt a whiff of smoke all day as the light winds were north westerly and pushing it away from here, so, for a change, I've been unaffected here.
Another large burn off was visible from the top of Glenhaven Rd this morning somewhere in the lower Blue Mountains.
Out this way, today has been a perfect winters day. My max was a tad over 18 degrees here. Currently 12.8.

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#1429185 - 29/07/2017 18:11 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
AccessR temp chart 1pm have no where near the 26 forecast for Newcastle tomorrow. Neither does WZ or windy.com. I'm confused.


Yes but the temps at 925mb are looking to be up to 18C which translates to about 28C in the right conditions. So I would subtract one from that given it's winter and shorter daylight hours and then another for cloud cover. So 26C seems close to the mark to me.


The sun makes a huge difference in winter. If it's blocked there's no 26

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#1429189 - 29/07/2017 18:29 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6437
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Okay maybe 25C then.

We will soon see.

Re fire smoke: Yes there was a fair bit of it around the Northern suburbs including in Wollongong itself but none down here.


Edited by Wave Rider (29/07/2017 18:32)
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2017-18 storm total= 5
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#1429191 - 29/07/2017 18:51 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Just stick with it on 28c WR, it doesn't matter how right you are, you will always be wrong around here.

Surface temps are between 22-26c, the further out west you go the more the heat accumulates so theres atleast one 28c that will happen.

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#1429192 - 29/07/2017 18:55 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6437
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Lol well yeah, you never know it could reach 28 still but probably not. I'm still going to go for 26C though.

Might possibly be 28 down here with less cloud predicted and Foehn effect from the escarpment.


Edited by Wave Rider (29/07/2017 18:58)
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2017-18 storm total= 5
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#1429196 - 29/07/2017 19:18 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The 27.6 reached at Richmond RAAF (old site) on 24/7/1990 is probably an indication of the potential for July heat in the Sydney area when all the ducks line up - clear skies, very hot air mass (relative to the season), no sea breeze and no cool change before late afternoon. Same goes for the 47.8 at that site on 14/1/1939.

Such a 4-way conjunction would be very rare, even more so near the coast.


Edited by Steve777 (29/07/2017 19:19)
Edit Reason: 24/7/1990

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#1429201 - 29/07/2017 19:54 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 838
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Cool night, already down to 12C.
No indication that a 27 year July record is "on notice", that is for sure.
Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Either a record, or another "close but no cigar" event for the year.

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#1429210 - 29/07/2017 20:32 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's quite cold in Sydney's West under clear skies, 6 to 8 degrees in places affected by inversions like Sydney Olympic Park and Bankstown. Coastal sites are still around 15. Mount Boyce is relatively warm, at 9 degrees, equivalent to about 16 at sea level. I've often noticed that adding 7 to mount Boyce gives you something close to OH, as is the case now. Both sites are higher than their surrounds and cold air drains away.


Edited by Steve777 (29/07/2017 20:34)
Edit Reason: Last sentence

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#1429212 - 29/07/2017 20:49 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Good old Ood was only a degree short of its highest recorded July day. Some serious winter heat roiling about. 30 at Birdsville. Whats interesting is how much cooler Moree and Walgett were today. Relatively speaking. Quite a lot of wind shifts would explain it.

@WR I know bom says pre 1910 should be taken with a pinch of salt. But it could be that this arbitrary 1910 thing is to conceal some temps that the public doesnt 'need to know'. If bom has info that Mildura reading in 1892 was with a stevenson screen in situ, than I for one want to know that. The way raw data is massaged is suspicious. And the bom has been caught rounding cold temps up as recently as at Goulburn airport when a -10.4 was rounded to 10.


Interesting bout Mt Boyce Steve
Clear here. Encountered heaps of smoke in east lake Macquarie. Eyes are still stinging



Edited by Knot (29/07/2017 20:54)
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#1429214 - 29/07/2017 21:00 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 838
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It's quite cold in Sydney's West under clear skies, 6 to 8 degrees in places affected by inversions like Sydney Olympic Park and Bankstown. Coastal sites are still around 15. Mount Boyce is relatively warm, at 9 degrees, equivalent to about 16 at sea level. I've often noticed that adding 7 to mount Boyce gives you something close to OH, as is the case now. Both sites are higher than their surrounds and cold air drains away.


Yeah it's dropped to 6.3c here now as well, quite a dramatic drop really.

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#1429215 - 29/07/2017 21:02 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
I thought tonight was supposed to be quite mild?
Currently 5.8c.
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#1429216 - 29/07/2017 21:07 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Places like Ivanhoe, Hay and Swan Hill are still in the 20s, so I suppose a late night spike in the temp is possible.

I still think the cloud will play a pivotal roll in the temps tomorrow.
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#1429217 - 29/07/2017 21:12 Re: NSW- Possible record-breaking July 'heatwave', 29th & 30th July 2017 [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5283
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
Just stick with it on 28c WR, it doesn't matter how right you are, you will always be wrong around here.



That's not correct and you need to let go of this attitude.
Everyone on this forum has an opinion or comment to make. They may not always agree with yours, or indeed others. It doesn't make each other right or wrong.
What would be appreciated is that you stop turning every post of yours into a thinly veiled shot at those that don't agree with your opinion.

The temp dropped briefly below 11 degree's here just after 7 pm. There was still no breeze here and it was feeling cold. It is now back up to 14.2 degrees. It's certainly a little windier outside and feels warmer. Camden is currently at 5.5 deg's with no breeze.


Edited by Homer (29/07/2017 21:14)

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