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#1429024 - 27/07/2017 18:15 Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A blatant plageurisation (there is no way I'd ever spell this correctly - Samboz???) of Twisters post this morning.

Latest GFS supports his keen eye! - early days but...........


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#1429032 - 27/07/2017 20:30 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Plagiarism

Examining the rest.....as well as wind on Sat ??

grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1429046 - 28/07/2017 08:49 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Forecasts for here not talking up wind tomorrow Petros, 24kph 1pm-4pm' ish from NNW/NNE, see what happens.

Had a look at next week, ACCESS - that possible ECL starts forming Tuesday and strengthen as a good Low over a large portion of Eastern Aus, the first I can remember for quite a while.

Wed. next showing good rain for parts of SA and Western NSW, then Thur. the Low moves eastward across NSW and South into Vic.

Doesn't show ECL this stage on ACCESS but this is one of the best systems and very nice to see, hopefully with good rains in the next week or so.

The GFS 1o day WZ, backs up ACCESS from what I can see and has a cut off Low to the S/E of Aus mainland by Sat week, 5/8 . It's also showing plenty of moisture.

(Good enough to get excited re possible rain......... laugh )


Edited by samboz (28/07/2017 08:56)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1429072 - 28/07/2017 11:26 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz
Plagiarism

grin


Ever reliable Samboz smile

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#1429098 - 28/07/2017 17:38 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 266
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Extremely still around Melbourne right now, no wind at all.

The calm before the storm hey?
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Wunderground

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#1429108 - 28/07/2017 19:18 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS still supports a cut-off, but moving eastwards pretty damned quick:



Potenitally sad for Vics rainwise, BUT if it moves off to NZ as quick as mooted, then potentially invites the next following frontal system to arrive up from the SW unblocked?

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#1429109 - 28/07/2017 19:27 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Lots happening in the next week, multiple lows etc, should be interesting.

As usual, our 4 x 80% chance of rain days have evaporated (:D) but at least the patterns looking more fav. for moisture.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1429131 - 28/07/2017 23:11 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes interest 7-10 day period coming up, a great way to say goodbye to July and hello to August! Looking forward to it oh yeah! grin

Firstly the potentially major winter storm that's currently racing across the Bight and is about to burst upon this weekend, with a very powerful, potentially dangerous northerly airflow strengthening across Victoria ahead it, hence the SWW for Destructive Gales that's now in effect for tomorrow! Then a vigorous, unstable cold pool that follows behind the main storm for a couple of days.

Then the cut-off low that's forecast comes through around the middle of next week, just hope it doesn't wander too far to our north.

Then it looks like more stormy weather with another powerful cold front and multiple lows embedded within a large cold pool from this time next week onwards! smile


For the most part this winter it's been depressingly dry and quiet, but hopefully this pattern is a sign of things to come as we move into the final month of Winter 2017 and prepare for spring and summer once more! Looking forward to the upcoming Battle of the Air Masses and Storm Season 2017/2018! =D

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#1429162 - 29/07/2017 15:18 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The cut off ECL at least stayed consistent with earlier models, according to ACCESS.

Looking at Vic. obs just now, funny weather given extremes within the state.

Be great to see some wild wet SW fronts come thru!
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1429188 - 29/07/2017 18:23 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS shows the promise of next weeks cut-off clearly:



Usefull rain in much needed regions of Vic.

AND ...the promise of a follow-up event????

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#1429194 - 29/07/2017 19:10 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Notice the system over eastern Aus. at the end of next is quite low hPa @ 1019 compared to recent months.......ACCESS refers.

Gives the SW fronts a chance.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1429317 - 30/07/2017 19:00 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS:


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#1429403 - 31/07/2017 16:52 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still on track to provide some useful rain, esp. over the Western agricultural sector. Hope its not too late!:



Check out the bleak wintery outbreak over Vic next Saturday! - any thread starters out there?

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#1429501 - 01/08/2017 18:26 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cut-off is now being born at the peak of the cold-air upsurge into Kalgorlie as I type:


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#1429528 - 01/08/2017 22:36 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 523
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Watch it explode overnight an into tomorrow over SA,

Shame not a strong in-feed of moisture then we be talking widespread 30-50 Isol 80mm+

Very strong dynamics tomorrow weaken a bit Thursday.

Mallee and most of vic see 5-10mm, isol 15-20mm in up slope ad heavier bands ad or storm or shower
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1429562 - 02/08/2017 12:45 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2293
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovey day of 16c and the system looks like dump rain most NW to Northern Victoria and inland west of NSW.

Hope farmers will happy for growing season if enough rain.

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#1429599 - 02/08/2017 19:05 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest track map of this cut-off low:




....love or hate what rain you get from this, at least it heralds a wild wet wintery period in its wake!!!


Edited by Petros (02/08/2017 19:06)

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#1429678 - 03/08/2017 17:36 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Freezing day here, very near frost, fog till afternoon, 10.9C max, .....and that could have been from last evening! - 8C here atm.

Hope rain arrives soon to warm the place up!

I see latest GFS moots 15mm rain here tonight, AccR only 5mm.


Edited by Petros (03/08/2017 17:40)

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#1429704 - 03/08/2017 20:27 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Cold max of 7.9c with a freezing easterly
Blowing.
Currently been light rain the past couple of
Hours and 6.9c

In for a nice night of rain judging by the
Radar

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#1429705 - 03/08/2017 20:35 Re: Vic - potential arrival of a cut-off Low 2-4 August 2017 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 523
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Horrible cold but VERY welcome rain for many many people, never a bad thing a low passing just N of Vic always brings good rain to many.

Many 10-20mm falls which is just great and few more showers in coming days should help great little cut off this one also very welcome rain in NSW as well

Those in the SW will get there rain in the coming 5 days.

Showers, local hail and thunder, heavy snow in the alps strong to gale force NW to SW winds over the coming 4 days fun times ahead.

Is it October yet?
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Bring on the STORMS

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