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#1428802 - 25/07/2017 00:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10119
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
2016/2017 Storm Season Summary at South West Rocks (1st July 2016 to 30th June 2017):

56 THUNDERDAYS (days when thunder was heard at South West Rocks)
#1 - August 2nd
#2 - August 3rd
#3 - September 25th
#4 - October 11th
#5 - October 12th
#6 - October 13th
#7 - October 27th
#8 - October 28th
#9 - October 30th
#10 - October 31st
#11 - November 1st
#12 - November 8th
#13 - November 9th
#14 - November 12th
#15 - November 28th
#16 - November 29th
#17 - November 30th
#18 - December 1st
#19 - December 2nd
#20 - December 3rd
#21 - December 5th
#22 - December 6th
#23 - December 7th
#24 - December 8th
#25 - December 17th
#26 - December 20th
#27 - December 21st
#28 - January 2nd
#29 - January 11th
#30 - January 12th
#31 - January 14th
#32 - January 15th
#33 - January 18th
#34 - January 20th
#35 - January 26th
#36 - January 28th
#37 - February 4th
#38 - February 17th
#39 - February 18th
#40 - February 25th
#41 - February 26th
#42 - February 27th
#43 - February 28th
#44 - March 1st
#45 - March 2nd
#46 - March 4th
#47 - March 5th
#48 - March 14th
#49 - March 18th
#50 - March 19th
#51 - April 4th
#52 - April 6th
#53 - April 26th
#54 - May 22nd
#55 - June 7th
#56 - June 9th


Winter*** - 4 thunderdays
Spring - 15 thunderdays
Summer - 26 thunderdays
Autumn - 11 thunderdays
*** Winter = July 2016, August 2016 & June 2017

><

37 THUNDERSTORM hits at my house in South West Rocks (t'storms which are "near-misses" don't count towards the total. Like this one, using an example from 2015)
#1 - August 3rd [am]
#2 - August 3rd [am]
#3 - August 3rd [pm]
#4 - October 11th [am]
#5 - October 11th [am]
#6 - October 28th [pm]
#7 - October 28th [pm]
#8 - October 30th [pm]
#9 - October 31st [pm]
#10 - November 1st [pm]
#11 - November 8th [pm]
#12 - November 8th [pm]
#13 - November 9th [pm]
#14 - November 9th [pm]
#15 - November 9th [pm]
#16 - November 12th [am]
#17 - November 12th [pm]
#18 - November 29th [pm]
#19 - December 1st [am]
#20 - December 3rd [pm]
#21 - December 5th [pm]
#22 - December 17th [pm]
#23 - December 20th [pm]
#24 - January 11th [pm]
#25 - January 12th [pm]
#26 - January 14th [pm]
#27 - January 18th [pm]
#28 - January 20th [pm]
#29 - February 17th [pm]
#30 - February 17th [pm]
#31 - February 27th [pm]
#32 - February 28th [am]
#33 - March 4th [pm]
#34 - March 5th [pm]
#35 - March 19th [am]
#36 - March 19th [am]
#37 - June 9th [pm]


Winter*** - 4 thunderstorm hits
Spring - 15 thunderstorm hits
Summer - 14 thunderstorm hits
Autumn - 4 thunderstorm hits
*** Winter = July 2016, August 2016 & June 2017

Distribution of Thunderstorm hits through the day:
Midnight-2am - 1 t'storm hit
2am-4am - 1 t'storm hit
4am-6am - No t'storm hits
6am-8am - 2 t'storm hits
8am-10am - 3 t'storm hits
10am-Noon - 2 t'storm hits
Noon-2pm - 2 t'storm hits
2pm-4pm - 4 t'storm hits
4pm-6pm - 7 t'storm hits
6pm-8pm - 7 t'storm hits
8pm-10pm - 5 t'storm hits
10pm-Midnight - 3 t'storm hits


It was a decent storm season overall, with fairly regular storm activity through the traditionally more active months of October through to March. Some excellent displays of lightning through the season, particularly those on November 8th and 9th and also January 14th. The fourth quarter of the season (April-June) had just one hit from 6 thunderdays, which is only a slight detraction from a good season.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
August 2017 Rainfall: 1.2mm (Aug Avg. 80.4mm) // August 2017 Raindays: 1 (Aug Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1244.6mm (Jan-Aug Avg. 1097.9mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Aug Avg. 93.6 raindays)

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#1428806 - 25/07/2017 07:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17467
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
It was pretty poor up here near Bundy. We watched almost all storms slide south and over the border last Summer.Hoping for better this year.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1428819 - 25/07/2017 11:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4429
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
With the flu season starting to ramp up, it is a bit of a worry with the constant heating and cooling from day to day, I am expecting a pretty bad flu to hit Brisbane around or just after the Brisbane Ekka.

I don't know whether the peak's been and gone already or not. An amazing number of people I know came down with a nasty virus in June/early July including myself. Not sure whether they were bad colds or actual influenza but it sure was nasty.

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#1428820 - 25/07/2017 12:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4429
Thanks Seabreeze, always good to have someone counting the number of thunder days outside of the official sites.

Stanthorpe went down to -4.9C with a grass level temp of -7C this morning.

The frost here this morning was almost a carbon copy of yesterday's. Here's some shots I took:






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#1428844 - 25/07/2017 17:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17467
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Great shots.. That as close to frost as I like being. Someone else's photos.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1428849 - 25/07/2017 17:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 555
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
That thunderday count is pretty impressive there at South West rocks we've had around 40 days when thunder was heard around this area.Can't complain about that either , hopefully another god season ahead.

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#1428852 - 25/07/2017 18:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1084
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Nice frost pics Ken. Similar conditions here for the last 5 mornings, nice to finally get a little bit of winter chill. Not so nice lifting a few dozen frosted metal pipes by hand at 6am this morning. Fingers still went numb even under thick woolen gloves eek
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 378mm ytd

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#1428867 - 25/07/2017 19:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4429
Thanks LightningGus smile

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#1428869 - 25/07/2017 19:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4429
Still on track for unseasonal warm daytimes outnumbering cool daytimes for the rest of this month and through much of next month.
Area-averaged temps across QLD and the NT also currently look on track to become the warmest July on record unless some incredible cold snap happens (almost impossible).

The cool to cold nights still look like continuing in our area til the weekend then become unseasonably warm by next week.

Here's a multimodel map for next month calibrated by comparing past forecasts to reality:



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#1428898 - 25/07/2017 23:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10119
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks Seabreeze, always good to have someone counting the number of thunder days outside of the official sites.
Cheers Ken. I find it handy to record the thunderdays/thunderstorms, rather than just solely relying on memory.
By the way, the past four seasons here have been:
56 thunderdays (37 t'storm hits) during the 2016/2017 season
50 thunderdays (29 t'storm hits) during the 2015/2016 season
65 thunderdays (52 t'storm hits) during the 2014/2015 season
38 thunderdays (33 t'storm hits) during the 2013/2014 season


Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
That thunderday count is pretty impressive there at South West rocks we've had around 40 days when thunder was heard around this area.Can't complain about that either , hopefully another god season ahead.
Yeah, considering we're right on the coast here, and some distance from the ranges. Hopefully another good storm season ahead, though I have a feeling it might be a bit quieter this season here (maybe in the realm of 35-40 thunderdays), but I guess we'll see.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
August 2017 Rainfall: 1.2mm (Aug Avg. 80.4mm) // August 2017 Raindays: 1 (Aug Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1244.6mm (Jan-Aug Avg. 1097.9mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Aug Avg. 93.6 raindays)

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#1428906 - 26/07/2017 07:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2223
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Thanks Seabreeze for the hard work you contribute to this forum and for the latest figures.

Thanks Joesk for posting the video which was pretty cool, and very nice pics of the frost Ken. I Don't like your chart though, cry I just wanted a cold winter after such a long summer, but it became obvious pretty early on that we were heading for a warm season. We are breaking the wrong records again, it has been a pain to keep looking at the charts and seasonal outlooks this year.

Unbelievable how warm this winter is, I always judge winter by looking at Toowoomba, Warwick, Stanthorpe and Glenn Innes's temps as a hint of how we are going and this year it has not been good, pretty warm through out those regions as well. Over the next 7 days we have two days predicted to hit 27C. From July to September we are supposed to have above average temps and the dry spell to continue. If we were to go by what is happening in the Northern Hemisphere for their Summer it could be a bit of an unpleasant period or a bit hairy/scary. Severe floods, storms, mudslides, heat waves hitting 50C etc. It appears that we are on tract to have a Neutral weather pattern holding in place for this summer. Wouldn't surprise me to see highs of 29/30C towards the end of August.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/

Ken has posted the charts relevant for the upcoming months. Need to stay tuned and see how it pans out.


Edited by Colin Maitland (26/07/2017 07:34)
Edit Reason: corrected stuff and speillliiing
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1429085 - 28/07/2017 14:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2708
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Amazing warm end of July temp 28.7C atm, 12%RH.

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#1429090 - 28/07/2017 15:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 153
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks Seabreeze, always good to have someone counting the number of thunder days outside of the official sites.
Cheers Ken. I find it handy to record the thunderdays/thunderstorms, rather than just solely relying on memory.
By the way, the past four seasons here have been:
56 thunderdays (37 t'storm hits) during the 2016/2017 season
50 thunderdays (29 t'storm hits) during the 2015/2016 season
65 thunderdays (52 t'storm hits) during the 2014/2015 season
38 thunderdays (33 t'storm hits) during the 2013/2014 season


Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
That thunderday count is pretty impressive there at South West rocks we've had around 40 days when thunder was heard around this area.Can't complain about that either , hopefully another god season ahead.
Yeah, considering we're right on the coast here, and some distance from the ranges. Hopefully another good storm season ahead, though I have a feeling it might be a bit quieter this season here (maybe in the realm of 35-40 thunderdays), but I guess we'll see.


Pretty much the only decent storms I got to see this year were when I was home at SWR. Sydney had a terrible season.

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#1429097 - 28/07/2017 17:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Golden State]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6331
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Golden State
Question a little off the current chilly topic, when can we expect to have a general forecast for the spring & summer ahead ? Seems to be around this time of year that we get a look-ahead story or three regarding what we're in for.. I'm just hoping 'above average temperatures & below average rainfall' isn't rolled out for the fourth or fifth year in a row #prayforrain


I've heard nothing either. Would love to know other's thoughts on whether they think there's any correlation between winter and the storm season, whether colder / warmer winters have generally led to active / less active storm seasons in the past. Overall it's been a very warm winter with only really a handful of cold nights...mostly during the last week or so.

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#1429116 - 28/07/2017 20:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1740
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Warmer winters and early spring can lead to a good start to the storm season. You get the best of both worlds - warm surface temperatures and cold winter fronts pushing up from the south create good storm environments. Beyond that though I don't think there is a lot of correlation.

I think we're in for a big storm season this year. It looks like we'll be stuck in neutral with little interference with IOD or ENSO so it won't be too dry or too moist. It will all depend on the long-wave trough pushing up some nice fronts and more local climatic factors.

Going to go out on a limb and say we'll see an early start to the storm season in September and October with consistent and severe activity through November to January, particularly in the historically active mid-November period. I think we might see one to remember this year.

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#1429117 - 28/07/2017 20:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1227
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Golden State
Question a little off the current chilly topic, when can we expect to have a general forecast for the spring & summer ahead ? Seems to be around this time of year that we get a look-ahead story or three regarding what we're in for.. I'm just hoping 'above average temperatures & below average rainfall' isn't rolled out for the fourth or fifth year in a row #prayforrain


I've heard nothing either. Would love to know other's thoughts on whether they think there's any correlation between winter and the storm season, whether colder / warmer winters have generally led to active / less active storm seasons in the past. Overall it's been a very warm winter with only really a handful of cold nights...mostly during the last week or so.


I seen a similar question asked on one of the weather pages. Whether this "heat buildup" will cause a more wetter summer and wet season from increased evaporation from a warm winter? Maybe Ken could give some insight into how a dry and warm winter has a effect on the seasons ahead.

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#1429137 - 29/07/2017 07:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1007
Loc: Toowoomba
I suppose most of us weather followers start wondering (about this time of year) about the coming spring and summer. Looking at the climate driver posts, the SOI above +ve5.0 and the above average SST's about the north and east coasts it seems promising that we may have at least have average weather and maybe good rain everywhere.

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#1429177 - 29/07/2017 17:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Hopefull]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 305
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I'm sceptical. Last year it was very warm in late July & August - even warmer, there was one day in July which got up to 29 degrees. And last year's storm season wasn't a big one, nor did it have any particularly severe storms.
_________________________
Donut hole V2.0.

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#1429204 - 29/07/2017 19:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Lewis]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1740
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Lewis
I'm sceptical. Last year it was very warm in late July & August - even warmer, there was one day in July which got up to 29 degrees. And last year's storm season wasn't a big one, nor did it have any particularly severe storms.


We did have some good storms, for example the one with the 150+ kph gust at the airport. Still waiting for a repeat of the great storm seasons/outbreaks of November 2008 and 2013 though.

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#1429234 - 30/07/2017 00:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10119
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thanks Colin. smile

Originally Posted By: Befour
Pretty much the only decent storms I got to see this year were when I was home at SWR. Sydney had a terrible season.
If I recall correctly, I think the first-half of the storm season down Sydney way was especially quiet storm-wise? Take comfort that Sydney is not the Hobart / Sth East Tasmanian coast though which only gets about 5 thunderdays a year.

Noticed that Lord Howe Island experienced a storm last night that brought 98km/h wind gusts at the airport and 119km/h gusts at the aptly named Windy Point.

Currently experiencing the longest dry spell of the year here, 15 dry days in a row (including today). A very slight chance the dry spell may come to an end on Monday night with the trough's passage, but at this stage any precip along coastal parts looks like staying southwards of about Port Macquarie.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
August 2017 Rainfall: 1.2mm (Aug Avg. 80.4mm) // August 2017 Raindays: 1 (Aug Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1244.6mm (Jan-Aug Avg. 1097.9mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Aug Avg. 93.6 raindays)

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