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#1429414 - 31/07/2017 19:37 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
After a very quiet season so far, the WPAC has finally started to turn it on with a bit of a sleeper, NESAT, having recently crossed Taiwan (and will continue to bring heavy rain and floods into China), and now Category 5 Typhoon Noru lurking off the coast south of Japan. Noru could come very very close to crossing the coast near Japan but models still don't agree just on when and where - while some (looking at you, GFS) don't have a crossing at all.

Latest analysis from the JMA on NORU:

Originally Posted By: JMA

Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N2255' (22.9)
E13955' (139.9)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)



Here is the latest from the JTWC, which notes the low confidence in the mid to longer term forecast track:

Quote:
WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR
43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC ANNULAR
SYSTEM WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15-
NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 TO
T7.0 (127 TO 140 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY
FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG EASTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET AND TUTT CELL TO
THE EAST. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE AROUND 29 TO 30C. STY 07W IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT FROM
RIDGES TO THE NORTH, WEST AND SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
MORE WESTWARD.
B. STY 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND THE NORTHERN RIDGE
RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL PERSIST
AND SSTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS. TY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT EXHAUSTS MOST OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FROM THE WARM WATER. BEYOND TAU 36 A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE NORTHERN RIDGE AND INTRODUCE A DEGREE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN TO
100 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER.
BEYOND TAU 36 MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE NORTHERN RIDGE.
C. AROUND TAU 72, THE TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED AND THE NORTHERN
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK HALTING THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF STY
07W AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THIS TIME. THE
EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURN DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE SPEED
AND STRENGTH OF THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF THE NORTHERN STEERING RIDGE. STY 07W WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AGAIN AROUND TAU 96 TO 120 AS THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE COMPETES WITH THE NORTHERN RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IMPROVING BUT STILL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN POSSIBLE TRACK
SCENARIOS. OVERALL, THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO BUT THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TRACK POSITIONS AT TAU 120 IS
ABOUT 575 NM. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE UKMET AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE
WHICH SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO THE
NORTHERN RIDGE ORIENTING ITSELF ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS. THE EXTENDED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTIONS NOTED
ABOVE THAT STY 07W WILL NOT KEEP TRACKING WESTWARD, BUT RATHER TURN
TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 120 AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS
THE REGION, AGAIN ERODING THE NORTHERN RIDGE, AND ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE TO ASSUME STEERING. DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF
COMPLEXITY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN




00z Track Guidance:

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#1429475 - 01/08/2017 14:26 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kev in Bello Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5040
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Check out the latest GFS forecast - deepest system I've ever seen forecast. Massive storm, destruction on any land that hits:



EC and GFS both looking fairly closely aligned on this one, not good for S Japan.

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#1429476 - 01/08/2017 14:43 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yes, not looking good for southern Japan:

Quote:
WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR
46//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM
WHICH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE EYEWALL APPEARS TO
HAVE REESTABLISHED ITSELF, THOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LARGE
EYE FEATURE. A 312213Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED THE
EXISTENCE OF A VERY WEAK EYEWALL, WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 105 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 TO T5.5 (77 TO 105 KNOTS) AND
THE OVERALL WEAKENED APPEARANCE IN BOTH THE MULTISPECTRAL AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING, ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES IT REMAINS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE AREA. THE
PREVIOUS WEAK EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS NOW BEEN CUT OFF, WITH
ONLY A WEAK POINT SOURCE NOW PROVIDING LIMITED OUTFLOW TO THE
SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE 30 DEG CELSIUS, AND THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRANSITING OVER AN AREA OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING TREND
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 07W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGES TO THE NORTH,
WEST AND SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE RIDGE TRIPLET ENCAPSULATING TY 07W ITSELF MOVES
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BUILDING AND THE
NORTHERN RIDGE RETREATING TO THE NORTHWEST. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AROUND TAU 36, WEAKENING THE NORTHERN
RIDGE FOR SHORT PERIOD AND ALLOWING TY 07W TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. BUT THIS TURN NORTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
AND TY 07W RESUMES A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BY TAU 72, AS THE NORTHERN
RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TY 07W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL
REMAINS LIMITED TO THE WEAK POINT SOURCE, AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
AN AREA OF LOW OHC VALUES. A SHORT PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 AS THE LIMITED OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY
INCREASING OHC AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES A HIGH OHC POOL. THE SYSTEM
WILL REINTENSIFY YET AGAIN BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE COME TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
WITH ALL MODELS AGREEING ON THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO AND ONLY
MODERATE SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72. GFS AND JGSM ARE THE OUTLIERS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY, WITH ROUGHLY 200 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72.
DUE TO THE INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. BY AROUND TAU 72, THE NORTHERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH OF TY 07W LEADING TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURN
DEPENDS ON THE SPEED, STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE NORTHERN
STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IN TURN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARDS BEGINNING AT TAU 120.
TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72, DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY PRESSURE AND VWS AND MOVEMENT OVER LOWER OHC POOL. THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH A MINIMUM OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96 BUT INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BY TAU 120 AS RADIAL OUTFLOW AND GREATER OHC VALUES COMBINE
TO GIVE THE SYSTEM A SLIGHT BOOST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN THIS RUN
WITH ALL MODELS EXCEPT UKMET AND JGSM AGREEING ON THE FORECAST
SCENARIO. MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 120 HAS NOW DROPPED TO LESS THAN 400
NM. WHILE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED, DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF
COMPLEXITY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK
.//
NNNN




EC & GFS show re-intensification occurring prior to landfall which is a bit of a worry.

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#1429486 - 01/08/2017 16:54 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Latest EC, now just skirting the west coast of Japan and the east coast of South Korea:


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#1429684 - 03/08/2017 18:18 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS:

EC:


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#1429779 - 04/08/2017 16:59 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Here she comes! Models have definitely overcooked Noru from a few days ago though, which isn't surprising given the high latitudes, but they still predict a fairly sharp rise in intensity prior to landfall.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/


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#1429875 - 06/08/2017 04:22 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1429876 - 06/08/2017 04:32 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD


75kt sustained with 90knt gusts according to JTWC...significant but not the typical doomsday scenario the models originally had planned.

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#1431619 - 24/08/2017 19:21 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kev in Bello Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5040
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
This is the latest NHC warning on Harvey. This is a fascinating storm - a huge rain bearer that will likely stall just inland from the coast for 24 hours or more, then perhaps even move offshore again. Likely to see massive rain totals on the Texas coast - going to be some very severe impacts from this storm for a significant time - days and days.
The 0400Z warning from NHC: "Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been sampling
Harvey during the past few hours. Both aircraft indicate that
Harvey is becoming better organized and the central pressure is
falling. An average of the flight-level winds and the SFMR yield an
initial intensity of 40 kt. There are some unconfirmed reports of
stronger winds at flight-level to the northeast of the center,
but I am waiting for the plane to go back to that area for
confirmation.

It appears that the environment has finally become favorable
and all of the guidance calls for intensification. In fact, the
Rapid Intensification Index is up to 45 percent. The current NHC
forecast is a little lower than the model consensus to maintain
continuity from the previous advisory. If the current intensity
trend continues, the winds will have to be adjusted upward
in the next advisory.

The initial motion is toward the north or 360 degrees at 9 kt.
However, this is a combination of motion and reformation under the
convection. Harvey is already on the western edge of the
subtropical ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the
Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will steer the cyclone on a general
northwest to north-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. Once
Harvey makes landfall in Texas, most of the global models predict
that the steering currents will collapse and Harvey will begin to
meander over Texas and perhaps will move back into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy
rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions
of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday
through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

3. A Storm Surge Warning is now effect from Port Mansfield to
San Luis Pass, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the
next 36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area."

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#1431621 - 24/08/2017 19:47 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I saw one forecast of up to 27 inches from Harvey!

BTW anyone else who follows Joe Bastardi agree that he's becoming a rambling mess lately? Bizarre, half his posts now are unreadable. Sad.

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#1431641 - 25/08/2017 02:35 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Harvey is intensifying rapidly this morning...forecast Cat 3 on landfall but even more worrying is the possible forecast to meander for a few days after, huge flood risk with this one.

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#1431642 - 25/08/2017 04:45 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
OMG 12z EC has 40" of rain through to next Tuesday in parts of SE Texas. Absolutely devastating of that came off.


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#1431669 - 25/08/2017 14:00 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4295
Loc: Brisbane
May be the first major hurricane strike in the US for over a decade. Storm surge combined with intense rainfall will make this incredibly dangerous.

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#1431675 - 25/08/2017 16:41 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1431683 - 25/08/2017 17:42 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1610
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow ,They say it will stall dumping up to a metre or 40 inches of rain that will not be good.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1431703 - 25/08/2017 21:48 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23536
Loc: Townsville
Pressures dropping to nearly 950hpa. Hes sp close to becoming a major.

This will cost Billions.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1431712 - 26/08/2017 05:06 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Cat 3 major. 120 mph winds & a central pressure of 943mb!

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#1431717 - 26/08/2017 09:41 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23536
Loc: Townsville
Cat 4.

Strongest to hit since charlie
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1431731 - 26/08/2017 11:14 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Dawgggg]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5882
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:
Currently 8:10PM Friday here; Harvey's eye is nearing landfall near Port Aransas, Texas. Harvey is the first Category 4 Hurricane to hit Texas since Hurricane Carla in 1961.
I've heard that some WX models even show the remnants of the storm still circulating over S Texas & dumping rainfall a week from now!
What a way to break a drought!

Thoughts & Prayers for ALL Those Impacted.
It's interesting to keep tabs on the METAR Map readings.

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#1431737 - 26/08/2017 11:53 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12562
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
This is just chilling to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkDPhTyXYH4
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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