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#1433460 - 10/09/2017 07:07 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4295
Loc: Brisbane
Unfortunately, the model runs for Irma have continued to shift a little further West.

Whilst all the big towns on the east coast have been spared the worst Irma has to offer I think towns like Tampa and Naples will not be well served if the core of Irma remains slightly off shore.

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#1433461 - 10/09/2017 07:27 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 75
Loc: Bushland Beach
The wind shear maps look unfavorable for Irma once she gets along side Florida. Does anyone know if this will remain pretty
much the same in 24 or 48 hours. Thanks

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#1433462 - 10/09/2017 08:01 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
I think it's also good to remember that even though the centre of Irma may only skirt the west coast of FL or even stay a bit offshore, it's whatever areas that experience its front right quad (in this case, the northeastern quadrant) which will get lashed.
This is especially the case if the wind field with a hurricane is so big.
Obviously the most destructive winds will still be confined to near its core though.

Tornadoes are also always a risk with landfalling hurricanes like this, as is the flooding and wind threat well into the southeastern states such as Georgia and Alabama after Irma penetrates inland.

Below are the latest tracks from a range of deterministic models and ensembles (colour-coded according to the intensity scale in the bottom left of the image) - I chose to include most of the main global models commonly used in the NHC and JTWC consensus track forecasts as well as the CTCX, HMON, HWRF and the UK, EC, US Navy and GFS ensembles.
I deliberately left out the CMC ensemble though because I'm not a fan of its unrealistically wide and sometimes crazy spread of tracks:




Edited by Ken Kato (10/09/2017 08:05)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1433464 - 10/09/2017 08:21 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: GrannyK]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17700
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: GrannyK
The wind shear maps look unfavorable for Irma once she gets along side Florida. Does anyone know if this will remain pretty
much the same in 24 or 48 hours. Thanks


TC Hamish in the Coral Sea showed that wind shear doesn't always concern these powerful systems a few years back.
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#1433471 - 10/09/2017 09:59 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17700
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
These guys are doing live footage on social media from Key West. The system is still several hours from them but could get interesting later on this afternoon (our time)

https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmerAccu/videos/10155770186994169/

Also, it appears she has made that turn towards Florida by Mega's linky

.
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#1433472 - 10/09/2017 10:24 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5175
Loc: Diamond Valley
Alarmingly, the latest CIMSS 2100UTC wind shear tendency is for the current low shear 10kts to be maintained or even decrease. This, together with warmer SSTs in the open waters of the Florida Straits, has the potential to have this system bomb back to a Cat 5 before landfall.
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#1433473 - 10/09/2017 10:47 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1113
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
This beast has at least 24 hours in ideal temps to intensify - scary stuff

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#1433474 - 10/09/2017 11:24 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1523
Loc: Southern Victoria
I said this last night and everyone was too busy arguing over something else to respond . ( Irma will track further west than forecast ) . Purely in the fact that She is very large and strong that she will create her own steering weather to a certain extent .
If you notice on the last few frames that radar loop as soon as her core u couples from the coast , the outer bands intensify instantly . She just took a huge sip of extra warm surface water , and now she ready to ramp back up . Georgia and Alabama are definitely in the firing line , Louisiana is definitely not out of it yet .
The other thing is , the further west she shifts the more chance that Jose will come further west , as she influences his steering winds .
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#1433475 - 10/09/2017 11:28 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
www.myfoxhurricane.com is a great site for tracking Irma. Yes, she is looking better on satellite, and it did not take long!
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433476 - 10/09/2017 11:31 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
If this track hold true, it will pass right over my old stomping grounds of Tampa-St.Petersburg. Wow, this is getting real! Let's hope you are right S.O.
The FL panhandle and areas west are in a much better position to handle this beast!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433478 - 10/09/2017 11:38 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 75
Loc: Bushland Beach
Thanks! My Fox hurricane very helpful was flipping between news sites and weather sites now I have abit of both.

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#1433479 - 10/09/2017 11:40 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Does anyone remember Hurricane Charlie in Punta Gorda, Florida near Fort Myers? He had rapid intensification as he approached land on Aug. 13, 2004. He was under the influence of a major trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico. I imagine the sheer as Charlie approached was rather significant? Why then did he intensify so quickly into a Cat 4 storm? How much more will Irma intensity with less sheer and warmer waters? Scary!
I was in Tampa at the time and we had virtually no extreme weather with Charlie. That is how small and compact that storm was. Nothing like Irma!
I was working for the fire department at the time and was sent down there for recovery efforts. The damage was so extreme! Charlie was a Cat 4 with 140mph winds at time of landfall and moved NE across the state. Even Daytona Beach has hurricane force winds.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (10/09/2017 11:42)
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433480 - 10/09/2017 11:48 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1113
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Back in 2015 Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours so for Irma to go from a strong Cat 3 to a lower end Cat 5 is certainly possible in the same period...

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#1433482 - 10/09/2017 11:50 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I also rode out Francis and Jean that same year in Tampa. The storms came at us from the east as they made landfall on the mid to lower east coast of Florida. By the time they got to us we had hurricane force gusts, but nothing sustained beyond hurricane force. Still, the flooding to the low lying areas of Tampa-St.Petersburg was significant as the backside of the storm created a SW flow on our west coast. In fact, any storm, even less significant ones cause flooding in the Shore Acres area of St.Petersburg and Bay Shore area of Tampa. Many other areas too..
Let us wait and see what Irma brings....

Just a note, we had 4 hurricanes strike the state within a 6 week period. Charlie, Francis, Ivan and Jean.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433483 - 10/09/2017 12:45 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1113
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
The eye has completely reorganised itself now - bombs away for the next 20 or so hours

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#1433488 - 10/09/2017 13:21 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I agree Pete, I wonder why the National Hurricane Centre has just downgraded the strength of this storm? Staying a medium Cat 3 all the way through....
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433490 - 10/09/2017 13:42 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1030
Loc: Toowoomba
I have been following Irma through Weather underground perhaps like many of you. I am detecting some annoyance with a lot of comments. Like someone said," half say it is weakening, half say it is strengthening, half say it is moving west, half north, half say cat 1 half say 5 etc, ect, ect. Must be frustrating for those who need to really know.


Edited by Hopefull (10/09/2017 13:43)

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#1433491 - 10/09/2017 13:44 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1113
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
I agree Pete, I wonder why the National Hurricane Centre has just downgraded the strength of this storm? Staying a medium Cat 3 all the way through....


Very very confusing to say the least, the majority on American weather forum are puzzled to say the least by that NHC forecast - some of the members in there are very knowledgeable too..,

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#1433492 - 10/09/2017 14:37 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I just watched live news feed from ABC Action News in Tampa. A veteran meteorologist stated atmospheric conditions ahead of Irma are quite conducive for further intensification. He is baffled why the NHC is not clued in on this. He stated perhaps they are seeing other things in the atmosphere they are not. Interesting.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433498 - 10/09/2017 15:11 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
OK, if you go to www.myfoxhurricane.com and look up the tropical video forecast, another top veteran meteorologist says he sees the potential for Irma to regain Cat 5 status by what he sees on satellite. This man does not have a history of exaggerating either. I have known him for a long time. He is top notch.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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