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#1434080 - 15/09/2017 09:34 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 732
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Not sure cycles, but I can say the highest wind gust reported in Florida was 147 MPH or 237 KPH in Naples along the southwestern coast of the state.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1434100 - 15/09/2017 14:45 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4339
Loc: Brisbane
I understand a gust of 155MPH was recorded in Barbuda before the weather station stopped reporting for a time. This is probably the highest measured gust on the ground.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1434144 - 16/09/2017 07:05 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: LDRcycles]
Nev Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2006
Posts: 612
Loc: Waiheke Island, Auckland, NZ
Originally Posted By: LDRcycles
What was the maximum wind gust from Irma? I heard a figure on radio of around 370kmh as it hit Barbuda, but all i can find online is reference to the max sustained winds of 295.


According to NHC's Hurricane IRMA Advisory Archive, max sustained winds were estimated to be around 160 kt (296 km/h), with gusts to 195 kt (361 km/h) between Sep 05, 1800z and 07, 0500z.

Irma's minimum central pressure also dipped to 914 hPa during that time (St. Barthelemy recorded 915.9 hPa as her eye passed over Barbuda).

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#1434146 - 16/09/2017 07:31 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2358
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Great stuff Orebound! Quality as always mate.

TS cool


Hey cheers Rowland and Doug.

It was an interesting chase not without its challenges but worth the trip. Looking forward to getting back to the NW Pacific stuff for the rest of the season though, still our favourite basin.
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#1434217 - 16/09/2017 23:39 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Have you guys seen the operational model runs for the Atlantic for the next 9-10 days or so? And I'm not talking about Jose either...

crazy crazy crazy crazy

Though GFS ensembles still show a chance of this one staying offshore.

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#1434236 - 17/09/2017 10:56 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
New York is being reported as in the firing line from Jose?

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/h...917-gyizbv.html

NHC doesn't seem to support it, keeping the system well out to sea .
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#1434237 - 17/09/2017 11:05 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
This is the track spread for Jose (not the one Mega mentioned) from the 18z runs of various models using that Fox News interface Michael mentioned awhile ago.

The thick white line is the current consensus track using all the models (the white dots are 24hr intervals from model run time):





Edited by Ken Kato (17/09/2017 11:11)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1434240 - 17/09/2017 11:35 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
So not much concern for NY based on that.
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#1434242 - 17/09/2017 12:05 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
Probably not at this stage. Can never say never with tropical systems though obviously.

Here's the one for TS Maria (I'm assuming that's the one Mega was referring to)... much bigger track spread/uncertainty once it starts the curve:



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#1434257 - 17/09/2017 16:39 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Ken Kato]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Probably not at this stage. Can never say never with tropical systems though obviously.

Here's the one for TS Maria (I'm assuming that's the one Mega was referring to)... much bigger track spread/uncertainty once it starts the curve:




Wish we had that spread of models like they do. Jealous.

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#1434260 - 17/09/2017 17:34 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Probably not at this stage. Can never say never with tropical systems though obviously.

Here's the one for TS Maria (I'm assuming that's the one Mega was referring to)... much bigger track spread/uncertainty once it starts the curve:




Yep that's it Ken. Unreal, it looks like Jose might save the east US coast from another direct hit. And what I mean by that is Jose just hangs there for another week leaving a gaping hole in the ridge for Maria to enter.

edit: Just looked at 00z EC & GFS - GFS has adopted EC's old scenario of the above, and EC is now the one with a direct hit on NC. The classic model switcharoo.

Jose has a massive role to play here.

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#1434263 - 17/09/2017 18:01 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And let's not forget about our friends in the Lesser Antilles Islands, this looks quite bad for them.

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#1434356 - 19/09/2017 08:30 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
Now Cat 4 with a reasonable pinhole eye on the GOES-16 imagery taken just before at sunset.

Currently gusts up to 260km/hr, sustained winds of 213km/hr, and central pressure of 950hpa:



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#1434365 - 19/09/2017 10:14 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 78
Loc: Bushland Beach
They are now saying Maria is a Cat 5 that was quick

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#1434370 - 19/09/2017 11:05 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
Yep from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in only just over 24 hours.

Cloud top temps from CIRA/RAMMB:



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#1434380 - 19/09/2017 14:20 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Hearing reports that Dominica faired quite badly from Maria unfortunately.

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#1434381 - 19/09/2017 14:42 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1646
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Not good ,Can;t believe how quick this hurricane went from cat 1 to cat 5 in less than a day.
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#1434426 - 20/09/2017 06:32 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Down to 916mb. Puerto Rico in real trouble here...

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#1434427 - 20/09/2017 06:45 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Also for anyone interested, Josh from iCyclone is in Puerto Rico chasing this:

https://twitter.com/icyclone

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#1434442 - 20/09/2017 09:19 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 78
Loc: Bushland Beach
National Hurricane Center just reporting core pressure at 909

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