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#1432321 - 31/08/2017 16:56 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS - TS Irma recurving away from the east coast
EC - Much further south, Irma moves over the Bahamas at the end of the run and into the gulf. Worst case scenario but is an outlier.
NOGAPS - Same as GFS
CMC - Same as GFS
JMA - Same as GFS

Have to wonder whether EC will fall inline with the others soon.

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#1432322 - 31/08/2017 17:14 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Interesting that a number of the GFS ensemble members actually take it onto the east coast as well rather than NE into Canada as a dirty extra-tropical system. This one is still anyone's guess at this stage.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017083100/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_41.png - all over the shop.

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#1432343 - 31/08/2017 21:33 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Euro ensembles tonight:


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#1432344 - 31/08/2017 21:44 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Joe Bastardi is going ape over this one as well, reckons major hurricane hit on east coast. Yikes.

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#1432354 - 01/09/2017 06:04 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Irma is already a cat 2 this morning, jesus.

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#1432357 - 01/09/2017 07:35 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1877
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Last night's GFS run had Irma down to 895 hpa. Well offshore eastern USA but a seriously strong system.

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#1432423 - 01/09/2017 15:56 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Cat 3

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#1432427 - 01/09/2017 16:57 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
00z EC operational with a huge shift north and out to sea. Still early days though.

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#1432435 - 01/09/2017 18:21 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1877
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
00z GFS has it hitting NY/Boston as a 930 hpa system. That's insane, too bad to be true surely.

Looks like a bit of a polar front swinging south-east before the hurricane arrives, but you'd think a hurricane of that strength would make its own steering environment and hardly be affected by a weak front. Anything could happen at this point.

Good article below:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html

Interesting points about GFS vs EC forecasting Hurricane Sandy. Perhaps EC might be a better predictor of this system too.


Edited by Nature's Fury (01/09/2017 18:26)

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#1432484 - 02/09/2017 10:36 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 179
Loc: Reynella, SA
We're currently on a driving holiday around the US and heading down to New Orleans, Orlando and Miami in mid-sept. Becoming increasingly concerned about cyclone Irma and another pot. sig. event developing just south of Irma.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

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#1432509 - 02/09/2017 14:51 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
P Man Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 21
Loc: Cambridge, Waikato NZ
These Cape Verde Hurricanes are amazing in terms of the distance they travel across the Atlantic. Its about 6500km from Africa to Florida. That distance is about the same as Tahiti to Townsville. In our region, the Solomon islands are the breeding ground and they are 2000km from Townsville.

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#1432520 - 02/09/2017 16:58 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Jesus christ you would hope the latest EC run didn't verify...South Carolina absolutely nailed. GFS landfalling further up the coast in Virginia.

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#1432529 - 02/09/2017 18:10 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1877
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Jesus christ you would hope the latest EC run didn't verify...South Carolina absolutely nailed. GFS landfalling further up the coast in Virginia.


With that kind of strength does it really matter where it hits? Although if it did hit New York as a Cat 5 then Roland Emmerich would just have to make a documentary of the event instead of one of his big-budget disaster movies.

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#1432531 - 02/09/2017 18:25 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Nature's Fury]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
Jesus christ you would hope the latest EC run didn't verify...South Carolina absolutely nailed. GFS landfalling further up the coast in Virginia.


With that kind of strength does it really matter where it hits? Although if it did hit New York as a Cat 5 then Roland Emmerich would just have to make a documentary of the event instead of one of his big-budget disaster movies.


With the warm water needed to sustain a category 5 is it even possible for a category 5 to hit as far north as New York?

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#1432535 - 02/09/2017 18:37 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Would probably take on subtropical characteristics if it got that far north ie. not fully tropical. Still devastating nonetheless.

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#1432548 - 02/09/2017 20:18 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4673
Short on time to write too much but here's a couple of graphics re Irma - 1st map is GFS ensemble out to about 10 days and 2nd map is a combo of GFS and CMC ensemble tracks:





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#1432555 - 02/09/2017 20:41 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1877
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Fantastic overview of the current hurricane situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WVSXVB3M84

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#1432560 - 02/09/2017 21:15 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6618
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Fantastic overview of the current hurricane situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WVSXVB3M84



Really enjoyed that, very informative, thanks.

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#1432646 - 03/09/2017 14:04 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1877
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
This morning's GFS has Irma down to 878 hpa! Making landfall at 920 in Washington DC.

EC weakens the Bermuda High, strengthens the front moving down and has Irma swing off to the NE probably clipping Canada.


Edited by Nature's Fury (03/09/2017 14:09)

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#1432649 - 03/09/2017 14:32 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Nature's Fury]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
This morning's GFS has Irma down to 878 hpa! Making landfall at 920 in Washington DC.

EC weakens the Bermuda High, strengthens the front moving down and has Irma swing off to the NE probably clipping Canada.


If that comes to pass it will be the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in terms of air pressure!

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