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#1429437 - 01/08/2017 08:55 Minimum temperatures at Goulburn
Teddy Offline
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Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 339
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
Interesting discussion on the radio ABC666 about possible manipulation of Goulburn's minimum temperatures.
Goulburn apparently recorded a minimum of -10.4C around 3 weeks ago but this was changed back to,-10C a letter to the relevant minister was sent by the caller to the minister who then contacted BOM who said that the station malfunctioned that day.
The caller is saying like wtf? It had been functioning normally but was then told Goulburn can't record such low temperatures?
If the figures on the BOM website are clearly wrong like for example somewhere in SA last month had been recording 17-20C and then suddenly records a 40C then fair enough clearly a glitch but ifs it only a difference of less than a degree.
Is there some hidden agenda going on here?

Cold and foggy this morning-1C fairly big standard for winter.

Teddy


MOD EDIT: Topic locked permanently. The discussion about Goulburn's minimum temperature has strayed too far into the Climate Change debate.


Edited by Seabreeze (23/08/2017 19:29)
Edit Reason: Topic locked

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#1429441 - 01/08/2017 09:08 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
EddyG Online   content
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4260
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Any links to the story?
I've had a quick look on ABC Canberra website, but to no avail.
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#1429443 - 01/08/2017 09:35 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Teddy Offline
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Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 339
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
Not sure if it has made the print media it was a phone call to the local radio station.
Be interested to see any follow up for this after all if BOM is being pressured to change things...

Teddy

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#1429444 - 01/08/2017 09:43 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3430
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Does the discussion refer to Goulburn Airport, open since 1991? The monthly observations page shows a minimum of -10.4 on July 2. There's also a site at Goulburn TAFE, open since 1971 (with a few gaps), but the coldest recorded there to 2016 is -8.5

I had a quick look at the stats for the Airport. The coldest ever recorded in June, July and August between 1992 and 2016 (all available data) are -10.2, -9.2 and -10.9 respectively. On the face of it, minus 10 point something in July looks like just a matter of time, in fact anything as low as -12 wouldn't look out of place.

So I don't know. AWS's do malfunction and it takes a while for someone to notice. I expect that there would be protocols in place to check values that stand out, for example an apparent new monthly cold record some 1.2 below the old one. I don't know how they would work out the correct value, but it would be preferable to leaving a gap if it could be determined with a reasonable level of confidence. I think it unlikely that anything sinister is going on. I trust the BOM more than I trust the Government.

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#1429448 - 01/08/2017 10:08 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Umm cough cough. The bom is part of the governments administrative arm aka the bureaucracy Steve. Like all bureaucracies be they private or public they are given to group think. Just take a look at the ABC or SBS for group think.
The question is simple. Why did a temp measurement at Goulburn airport get rounded up to take it out of the sub 10 category. This incidenr tarnishes their reputation as gatherers and custodians of temp data. And temp data is of greater significance today than at anytime in geoligical history as it is used to create a meme that humanity is doomed unless we radically change energy production practices. Scrutiny. Integrity of data is paramount.
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#1429450 - 01/08/2017 10:28 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
A few more thoughts. Does the bureau claim the -10.4 was an error. And if so how did they determine that? If it was determined to be an error, why was it rounded up instead of a possible lower reading. If the rounding up was an error. Than what is the frequency of this occuring with minimum temps at other aws stations?
And of course if no error took place but was because anything below 10 is weeded out at Goulburn than why at Goulburn itself when there are records of sub ten there. Would they weed out sub tens at Thredbo. Of course not. So why Goulburn. In fact. Why any aws at all.


Edited by Knot (01/08/2017 10:34)
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#1429451 - 01/08/2017 10:32 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3430
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Knot
...Scrutiny. Integrity of data is paramount.


I agree with that.

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#1429452 - 01/08/2017 10:50 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
I personally think they are pushing a certain agenda (which must not be spoken of) by increasing the value of an extremely cold minimum so there's nothing to disprove that we are getting said change in our weather over a long period of time. -10.4°C in 2017 perhaps is too cold for what "it's meant to be" under said changes to that thing.

(Trying my hardest to get the message across without saying directly..)

Here is the full story btw Eddy.

Quote:
The Bureau of Meteorology has ordered a full review of temperature recording equipment and procedures after the peak weather agency was caught tampering with cold winter temperature logs in at least two locations.

The bureau has admitted that a problem with recording very low temperatures is more widespread than Goulburn and the Snowy Mountains but rejected it has ­attempted to manipulate temperature records.

The bureau’s chief executive, Andrew Johnson, has called for an urgent review and the immediate replacement of recording equipment at a number of undisclosed sites. The action was outlined in a letter to federal Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg and follows weeks of turmoil over why data showing minus 10.4C readings at Goulburn and Thredbo went missing.

Bush meteorologist Lance Pidgeon blew the whistle on the missing data after watching the minus 10.4C Goulburn recording from July 2 disappear from the bureau’s website. “The temperature dropped to minus 10.4, stayed there for some time and then it changed to minus 10 and then it disappeared,” Mr Pidgeon said.

He relayed his concerns to scientist Jennifer Marohasy, who has queried the bureau’s treatment of historical temperature data. After questions were asked, the bureau restored the original recording of minus 10.4C to its website. A bureau spokeswoman said the low recording had been checked for “quality assurance” before being posted.

READ MORE
Media’s silence of the scams
The bureau said limits were set on how low temperatures could go at some stations before a manual check was needed to confirm them. “The bureau’s quality ­control system, designed to filter out spurious low or high values was set at minus 10 minimum for Goulburn which is why the record automatically adjusted,” a bureau spokeswoman said.

“The error was picked up yesterday internally and quality control processes are being reviewed for those stations where temperatures below minus 10 are possible.”

Dr Johnson told Mr Frydenberg the failure to record temperatures of minus 10.4C at Goulburn on July 2 was due to equipment being “not fit for purpose”.

A similar failure had deleted a reading of minus 10.4 at Thredbo Top on July 16 even though temperatures at that station had been recorded as low as minus 14.7 in the past. That temperature was still blank on the bureau’s website yesterday.

Dr Johnson said failure to record the very low temperatures had “been interpreted by a member of the community in such a way as to imply the bureau sought to manipulate the data record”.

“I categorically reject this ­implication,” he said.

The bureau’s handling of temperature data and the homogenisation of records to form a national average has been controversial.

It has said warmer minimum temperatures were one reason for the upward trend in average temperatures due to climate change.

In a letter to Mr Frydenberg, Dr Johnson said: “Preliminary analysis had indicated the ACORN-SAT national temperature record had not been affected by the issues experienced at ­Goulburn and Thredbo Top ­Station.” But, he added, electronic ­hardware “not only at Goulburn and Thredbo Top Station, but also a small number of other automatic weather stations in cold climate locations, are not fit for purpose”.

“I have taken steps to ensure that the hardware at this locations is replaced immediately,” he said. “To ensure that I have full ­assurance on these matters, I have actioned an internal review of our AWS network and associated data quality control processes for temperature observations.

“The review will be conducted by a member of the bureau’s senior leadership team and will ­involve independent external ­expertise where appropriate.

“I expect the review to be conducted in a matter of weeks and I will report back to you as soon as it is completed.”

Dr Marohasy said Dr Johnson’s claims of equipment failure were easily disproven by the screen shots that showed the very low temperatures before being “quality assured” out.

She said claims the omission of the very low temperatures did not affect the national temperature record were also easily disproven.

“While Goulburn station is not a listed ACORN-SAT station, it is used to homogenise Canberra and Canberra is an ACORN-SAT station,” Dr Marohasy said.

The bureau did not respond to questions about how widely the quality control system had been applied and at what upper temperature the cut-off had been set.

Dr Marohasy has evidence of the initial minus 10.4C recording at Thredbo before it was deleted for quality ­assurance.

“This either reflects an extraordinary incompetence, or a determination to prevent evidence of low temperatures,” Dr Marohasy said.


Edited by Wave Rider (01/08/2017 10:57)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1429454 - 01/08/2017 10:56 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3430
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Knot
A few more thoughts. Does the bureau claim the -10.4 was an error. And if so how did they determine that? ...

There is a "feedback" link near the bottom right hand corner of the BOM landing page. Anyone concerned about data or about any aspect of the BOM's work can use that to ask questions. I have used it a couple of times when I spotted apparent errors in historical data and the BOM changed the values. For example (going by memory) I spotted record low max of 13.3(?) at Sydney Airport in January 1955. This didn't look right. The BOM checked and changed it to 31.3. Maybe it was a typo when digitising data.

On the other hand, I have not had a response when asking about apparent 'phantom' falls if 0.2 rainfall from a clear sky at OH or the Airport. So you might get lucky, or not.

I believe the BOM, I don't believe for one minute they would fudge the data. In any case, anyone wanting to do do would have changed it to -9 and probably no one would have queried it.

Be that as it may, anyone with concerns about that Goulburn minimum can ask the BOM if they wish. If someone does so and gets feedback, it would be interesting to see the result posted here.


Edited by Steve777 (01/08/2017 11:03)
Edit Reason: Last two paras

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#1429455 - 01/08/2017 11:14 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Ron W at Walcha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/04/2008
Posts: 420
Loc: Walcha. NSW Northern Tableland...
BOM forecast for Walcha tomorrow- "Early Light Frost, -6 to 13!What does a heavy frost require?

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#1429458 - 01/08/2017 11:29 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Weather change is a myth, our climate and weather is the same as it always has been with lack of volcanic eruptions and solar minimums.

Ron, wouldn't rely on the BoM, anything below -3 is a hard freeze yet they never forecast it.

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#1429462 - 01/08/2017 12:28 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Knot]
Teddy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 339
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
Originally Posted By: Knot

And of course if no error took place but was because anything below 10 is weeded out at Goulburn than why at Goulburn itself when there are records of sub ten there. Would they weed out sub tens at Thredbo. Of course not. So why Goulburn. In fact. Why any aws at all.


Yes apparently Thredbo has been singled out as well!
I've no idea why either but Yes as custodians of weather data you'd think no shenanigans would be taking place?
Teddy

Edit just read Wave Rider's response good find. Well they set -10C as an absolute minimum that would explain the changing of data. Perhaps lower limits for the data will be set at some locations now to avoid future issues.


Edited by Teddy (01/08/2017 12:34)
Edit Reason: Saw Wave Rider's post

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#1429465 - 01/08/2017 12:37 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
EddyG Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4260
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Thanks WR

Unbelievable!!

So in theory Goulburn's minimum could have been even lower?
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#1429466 - 01/08/2017 12:37 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 467
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Bush meteorologist Lance??

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#1429474 - 01/08/2017 14:05 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Is it a case at the bureau that the 'Lunatics have taken over the asylum'


Edited by Knot (01/08/2017 14:07)
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#1429487 - 01/08/2017 16:57 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Knot]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 467
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Knot
Is it a case at the bureau that the 'Lunatics have taken over the asylum'

Maybe it's a funding thing?

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#1429490 - 01/08/2017 17:18 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Bush meteorologist Lance??


Lol I guess so.

And thinking about it further after my post, I don't think (and hope) they wouldn't be pushing an agenda and it is just because the AWS could be limited to a range of -10 to 50 for example. But that doesn't explain the all time record low of -10.9°C.


Edited by Wave Rider (01/08/2017 17:18)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1429492 - 01/08/2017 17:30 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3430
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Also, given a choice between a conspiracy and a stuffup, I'd go for the stuffup in the absence of specific evidence for the former.

As to this particular case. I proffer a plausible alternative explantion:

* An AWS records a reading of -10.4
* Being more than 1 degree below a monthly record, it comes out on a report.
* The figure is checked by a human being.
* The equipment is checked and found to be faulty, maybe in need of recalibration
* Alternatively, maybe the equipment doesn't work well below -10, but that would surprise me. If this is the case, they need better equipment, especially in a cold location.
* BOM decides not to discard the reading but round it to the nearest whole number, which is -10.

I don't know. I don't work for the BOM. I haven't been to Goulburn for a while. It's rather cold in Winter as I recall. But the above seems to me to be far more believavle that any deliberate tampering with the data for some sinister purpose.

* I note in passing that the old monthly record was eclipsed a few times during the month, but these instances appear not to have caused concern.


Edited by Steve777 (01/08/2017 17:37)
Edit Reason: Added 5th bullet point

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#1429493 - 01/08/2017 17:33 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 467
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I don't see how it could be an agenda driven thing. These cold temps only happen with a blocking high with clear skies and no wind. No fronts reaching the mainland in winter is where our attention should be.

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#1429494 - 01/08/2017 17:34 Re: Minimum temperatures at Goulburn [Re: Teddy]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
I was meant to say I don't think they WOULD be pushing a certain agenda

Yes I agree with your assessment Steve, I could probably not think of anything more plausable, especially the last point.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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