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#1431663 - 25/08/2017 11:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Sounds like a good question for snowies smile Over to you Dan smile

Actually I suspect "Yep" would have a good handle on that as well grin

Hi Nielsy, always good to have more local contributors in here smile hope to see stacks of posts down the track. grin

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#1431665 - 25/08/2017 12:15 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1901
Loc: Westbury
There is a cost, but you should get plenty of data for Tasmanian BOM sites at the base rate (>$100) - just be sure to request everything in one lot. The number of stations and the length of the record requested doesn't really affect the price unless you want virtually every site.

Use to be free if you were a student. There is a page on the BOM site to lodge any requests.

Modelled data (ACCESS) and gridded datasets tend to be far more $$, but beyond the needs for most users.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data-services/

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#1431668 - 25/08/2017 13:21 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Nielsy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/11/2005
Posts: 8
Loc: Sandy Bay - 121m, Tasmania
Thanks DaveM and Snowies! Good direction to get me started. I'll make sure I work out exactly what I need before I put a request in to get bang for buck. Thanks again!

Looking forward to chasing some snow tomorrow.

Cheers,

Niels

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#1431682 - 25/08/2017 17:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 908
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Originally Posted By: Snowies
Might be interesting for some low level snow sat night and early sun. GFS 12Z projecting 520 thick over the southern parts of the start.


Looking the goods Snowies.

SF, you might be lucky down your way.

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#1431695 - 25/08/2017 20:26 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2062
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Hope so Payshense!

How are the models looking tonight?

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#1431710 - 25/08/2017 22:19 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1901
Loc: Westbury
Most of the snow action after 10pm tomorrow night, GFS has the 850TMPs dropping from 1 degree at 7pm, to -7 at 4am the next morning. GFS has reasonable precip at times, ACCESS does not.

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#1431711 - 25/08/2017 23:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2062
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Thanks Snowies,
Will be interesting to see what the next run holds!

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#1431727 - 26/08/2017 10:37 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6437
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Won't be far off sea level snow down there as 850mb temps get down to -8 on GFS tomorrow, and -19 at 700mb. Not much upper support though. Still, it's pretty much guaranteed that payshense will get a snowfall, probably quite a decent one. Stale fish should also get some snow, but that will depend on the moisture. Even Mtn H20 should get some being at 200m.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1431801 - 26/08/2017 19:48 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2062
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Thanks Wave Rider for your forecast, still looks ok me thinks.
Should see 1 or 2 cm by morning at 300m.
Heavy shower just came through now but has eased.

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#1431807 - 26/08/2017 22:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1901
Loc: Westbury
Comparing this change with previous cold events, July 23rd, 2016 and August 3rd, 2015 - the biggest differences are at the 500hpa level, this event expected to reach -29, 2016 reached -33 and 2015 was nearly -39. Pretty significant difference as the lower levels aren't as different. Really would want to be in the -30+ range, suggests that showers may struggle to get through the ranges.

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#1431818 - 27/08/2017 08:19 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2062
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Very light dusting on the deck.
Snow thicker but light on Vinces Saddle.
Yes very few showers.
Temp dipped to 1.2 degrees.

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#1431836 - 27/08/2017 09:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 908
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
38mm

1-2cm snow settled here. Nice coating of powder on the trees earlier. Suns out now.

Got down to -0.5.

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#1431973 - 27/08/2017 20:13 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2062
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Up at Great Lake 1cm of drizzle snow and hail.
-3.5 degrees.
Had a good hail shower at home this arvo as well.

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#1432086 - 29/08/2017 08:34 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1901
Loc: Westbury
Here's hoping the models are right for early next week... if the 16 day GFS is believable, could be two changes with 520 thickness... anyway, see how the models develop it over the next 3-4 days.

Frosty this week, -3.9 yesterday and -2.9 this morning, should be another cold one Thursday morning.

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#1432089 - 29/08/2017 09:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep Snowies - This mornings GFS has a large area of 520 over pretty much all of Tassie and a little beyond late next week.

I suspect it will pull back a chunk from that but wow, what if it actually happened - VERY low level snow for much of the state under any decent showers.

I guess these sort of set ups are possible but gee it looks a bit much to me smile

Should be quite a cool week for Tassie next week.

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#1432101 - 29/08/2017 10:31 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1901
Loc: Westbury
Yeah, similar numbers to the 2015 sea level fall, supported up to the 500hpa level with -36+ 500 tmps over the southern half. It can happen, but not normally twice in 3 years... or twice in a week if the longer range GFS is right... if anything the 2nd looks more impressive... anyway, if the models start with the ridiculous then maybe we'll get a couple of solid snowy outbreaks with snow to low levels.

Snow forecast to 400m tomorrow, probably not much in it though.


Edited by Snowies (29/08/2017 10:31)

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#1432155 - 29/08/2017 21:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6437
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
What were the numbers for 850mb during the 2015 sea level fall, Snowies?

GFS goes for -7 and even -8 at 850mb would be VERY close to sea level snow I would think with -38 at 500mb to support it as well.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1432157 - 29/08/2017 22:08 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1901
Loc: Westbury
The GFS forecast from the 2nd of Aug that year had -7.2 and -39.2 at 7am in the morning (3rd) over Hobart. The 10am sounding at the airport at 10am reported -6.7 and -37.5 - which were on par with the forecast from the previous day. Snow fell to sea level and settled in a number of places - although not so much the CBD which is very protected by the mountain in these conditions.

Currently a forecast of -7.8 and -38.7 respectively for the same location this time. 517 thickness and sub 520 for a day...

Admittedly GFS is a bit out on its own in terms of how extreme it is, but EC not too far behind it - which makes a very low level fall more plausible.


Edited by Snowies (29/08/2017 22:09)

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#1432323 - 31/08/2017 17:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
TonyO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/04/2012
Posts: 50
Looking good for low level snow( not sea level now) and another 10-15mm next Tuesday/Wed for us here in the Huon. Upper levels support some good shower activity expecially Tuesday night/wed.
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#1432346 - 31/08/2017 22:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 72
Loc: Tasmania
What's your prediction on levels Tony? Are we talking 400m range, or elevated suburbs?
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