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#1432350 - 31/08/2017 23:31 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
TonyO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/04/2012
Posts: 50
Hi WTV,may have to wait for snowies detailed analysis for exact levels and timing. Certainly 200m maybe 100m, wind direction and moisture levels all timing together will have to wait for a couple of days out. Amyway it will be a good snowy change!!
_________________________
60m Above sea level Huon Valley GROVE http://www.weatherlink.com/user/groveblueberries/index.php?view

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#1432368 - 01/09/2017 09:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
Too variable, lasts nights 12Z run was quite a bit warmer than previous runs. SF is away next week so he won't mind if it doesn't snow much or at all...

GFS has been quite bullish up until last night especially in the far west and central areas, in fact at times the upper temps are cooler in the NW half before eventually spreading statewide as it takes quite some time for the winds to swing further to the south. ACCESS and EC a little less bullish.

I'd say the BOMs forecast of 300m is a sound mid-way bet at this stage, could be close to sea level in the west and 200m elsewhere if the earlier runs are right, maybe as high as 400m if last nights runs are closer to the truth.

Give the models another 24-48hrs to decide.

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#1432373 - 01/09/2017 10:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
Plots show just the variability in GFS for a single location in Tas. Thick white line is the most recent run added (00Z 31st - yesterday). Covers 17 runs of GFS at 00Z and 12Z each day (8.5 days).




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#1432431 - 01/09/2017 17:34 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
TonyO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/04/2012
Posts: 50
Thanks Snowies, always value your input.
_________________________
60m Above sea level Huon Valley GROVE http://www.weatherlink.com/user/groveblueberries/index.php?view

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#1432438 - 01/09/2017 18:37 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2052
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
So what level do you all think on tonight's run?

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#1432450 - 01/09/2017 21:51 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
boxingkoala Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2011
Posts: 55
Must say i am following snowies thoughts with great interest. If only i understood those graphs.
Dave
_________________________
Cradoc 110m asl

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#1432451 - 01/09/2017 21:53 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: TonyO]
boxingkoala Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2011
Posts: 55
Your not the tonyo with a boy playing gk at the lions by any chance?
_________________________
Cradoc 110m asl

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#1432455 - 01/09/2017 22:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
Looks similar to this morning. Monday afternoon/evening will be the best chance of low level snow, there is a bit of a lift in levels early Tuesday, before lowering again briefly during Tuesday. 200-300m looks a chance based on thickness and 500tmps. Oddly the winds stay round to the NW - which is unusual in cold changes.

Wet Sunday in the North, potentially some reasonably heavy falls.


The graphs plot the temperatures at a given level in the atmosphere (1500m and 5km above the surface) for a given location (my place) over a number of runs of GFS. The midpoint of the graph is current time (the last run of the model). Left of middle are forecasts that are now in the past, right of the middle is what is forecast to happen.

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#1432457 - 01/09/2017 22:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
TonyO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/04/2012
Posts: 50
Hi Bk yes Nick does play for Lions
_________________________
60m Above sea level Huon Valley GROVE http://www.weatherlink.com/user/groveblueberries/index.php?view

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#1432460 - 01/09/2017 22:39 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
boxingkoala Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2011
Posts: 55
Lol i am christians dad. Small world
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Cradoc 110m asl

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#1432465 - 01/09/2017 23:57 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2052
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Thanks for the info Snowies.

Not going away now, change of plans.

It will all fade away now that I am staying home!

Hahhah

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#1432496 - 02/09/2017 12:55 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
I wouldn't have changed my plans for it... seems pretty locked in atm. Not much change run to run. Similar to July 23rd last year, but from the NW which makes this one harder to read.

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#1432574 - 02/09/2017 22:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2052
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Nah didn't change just for the weather, got the flu ATM.

What do you think re rain?
Bom has very little forecast. The cold is there!

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#1432609 - 03/09/2017 09:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 332
Loc: Hobart
Chance the west coast could be totally cut off with the amount of low level snow forecast over there! Sad that it will be so dry in the south-east..

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#1432628 - 03/09/2017 11:02 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 153
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Hi all,

Very warm and windy atm, currently a warm 19.2C (reached 19.7C earlier) with a roaring Northerly at 42 km/h gusting to 72 km/h out here at Brighton, pressures dropping of rapidly ahead of the front, looking forward to the next 24 hrs of weather! grin

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#1432647 - 03/09/2017 14:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2052
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Not sure weather we will get showers or not but it all seems cold enough in the upper and lower levels to make good showers but they may go up through Bass Straight.
Snowies what do you think re showers in the South.

The West Coast will get caked!

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#1432680 - 03/09/2017 19:20 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
Correct, the conditions look pretty good for showers and the sat pic reflects that, a reasonable amount of upper level moisture as well. GFS has partly trended back toward some of the colder temps seen in earlier runs. Cold air should arrive around daybreak tomorrow (cold enough for snow below 500m). Shower activity will decline with warming upper temps on Tuesday afternoon evening. Meteye has expanded the area expected to see snow, with the maximum extend occurring in the early hours on Tuesday. The NW, WNW winds are unusual for a low level snowfall, will most likely leave Hobart in a bigger rain shadow than usual. I'd have thought most populated areas will get 2-7mm - maybe a bit more in exposed elevated areas, less the further east you go. Locally (to me) Deloraine's forecast for Tuesday is for showers or snow showers.

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#1432695 - 03/09/2017 20:46 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
wingtipvortex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2011
Posts: 71
Loc: Tasmania
Snowies. I'm meant to be driving up to Cradle on Sunday the 10th. It's a day trip for a wedding ceremony. Is there a possibility that I won't be able to make it?
There's talk about another front later in the week also.
Thanks in advance for any info.
_________________________
Kingston. Low Event Watcher!

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#1432707 - 03/09/2017 21:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2052
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
The sat pic looks good but will it make it through the Mts?
WTV looks like a snowy and cold Saturday!
Have fun.

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#1432708 - 03/09/2017 22:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
TonyO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/04/2012
Posts: 50
The Sat pic is developing nicely. I think we should get some good showers through into the top of Huon valley.
_________________________
60m Above sea level Huon Valley GROVE http://www.weatherlink.com/user/groveblueberries/index.php?view

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