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#1430463 - 12/08/2017 08:54 Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug.
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
This 966 hPa low with cold air mass (<540 ) is modeled by ACCESS to arrive early Tue. morning and linger with showers until the following Sat. Temps this stage 15C-17C, good chance of being lower when we get there.

It has potential to be a good wet down for pretty much all of Vic and if it comes off start to fill the void of dry months we have experienced.

Given the cold air it should also be one of the better snow falls too.

Had strong gusty wind last night roaring roaring around the house and shaking it, warmish morning at 15C now with scattered cloud.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1430470 - 12/08/2017 12:38 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Samboz - winter returns with a vengeance!

Agree re snow!

Fine and very windy here, not such a bad day to miss golf!

.....and hows this for a bleak Thursday night for Victoria!:



Edited by Petros (12/08/2017 12:40)

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#1430503 - 12/08/2017 18:36 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yeah, Petros ... looks like it'll roar in and make the temperatures of the days leading up seem like dim memories. Samboz, it will be interesting to see how much rain comes out of Tues/Wed - official forecasts only have a max total for my area for the two days of 9mm though better elsewhere.

Windy, mild here today.

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#1430506 - 12/08/2017 19:08 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mild n widy day here too TB, ...sticking with the Thursday night looming, the latest GFS shows it just as cold and windy, but less wet:




.....but as Samboz would say "hang on Petros, ...its still early days yet!"

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#1430509 - 12/08/2017 20:01 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
BOM - Boisdale (Near Maffra) forecast -

Tue 15 Aug Forecast Min3°C Max19°CPossible rainfall: 4 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 90%
Wed 16 Aug Forecast Min8°C Max18°CPossible rainfall: 0 to 3 mmChance of any rain: 80%
Thu 17 Aug Forecast Min7°C Max17°CPossible rainfall: 0 to 1 mmChance of any rain: 50%
Fri 18 Aug Forecast Min5°C Max14°CPossible rainfall: 0 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 60%

Best rain day Tuesday, Coldest Fri 14C.........(cold Thur night)

Certainly early days, fingers crossed P. grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1430510 - 12/08/2017 20:07 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Colac, for instance stands to do much better rain wise -

Tue 15 Aug Forecast Min7°C Max15°CRain increasing.Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mmChance of any rain: 90%
Wed 16 Aug Forecast Min8°C Max14°CShower or two.Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mmChance of any rain: 50%
Thu 17 Aug Forecast Min7°C Max11°CShowers.Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mmChance of any rain: 80%
Fri 18 Aug Forecast Min4°C Max10°CShowers.Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 80%
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1430536 - 13/08/2017 12:02 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This mornings GFS upate shows circa 3 inches of rain up in Alexia's territory over next 7 days!

I reckon Maffra will accumulate 15-20mm on latest guidance.

Heaps of snow for Vic Alps is good news.

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#1430539 - 13/08/2017 12:35 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1031
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread samboz
Really interesting period coming up,
Firstly good rain on Wednesday and
Then looks very cold with good
Snow to possibly pretty low levels as well!
Be good fun watching all this unfold 😀

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#1430544 - 13/08/2017 18:07 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...continuing my mini Thursday night theme:



Like last night, GFS continues to be lighter on with rain, and tilts the wind more to the WSW than SW as portrayed in its "wetter" prediction in today's morning run - but note the indicated rain above is only 12 hours worth (not a full day's accumulation). Still, a very bleak night for most of Vic, heaps of snow, ......and all up, heaps of rain for Alexia in Corryong.

I saw that Snowy Hydro has the best snow depth since 2004 after last weekends blizzard, will be pushing much closer by this time next week????


Edited by Petros (13/08/2017 18:09)

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#1430567 - 14/08/2017 09:00 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Mentioned S.A.M. (aka A.A.O.) in other threads. Looking better this stage, thanks Snowy Hibbo for link -

https://postimg.org/image/jfcb2gjgl/

To explain S.A.M. a little - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/SAM-what.shtml
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1430617 - 14/08/2017 15:05 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2323
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very surprised Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral.

Lovey early spring like of 21c at 3pm.

Nice see late cold SW westerly winds coming days.

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#1430618 - 14/08/2017 15:05 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
What a beautiful day lovely see the big 20 again! Wish I was flying today frown
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1430633 - 14/08/2017 18:00 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
23.8C here today! - I wonder if tomorrow will be warmer!

Still looking wet up at Corryong over the outlook.

....and Thursday night still looks blizzard-like to me, the westerly tilt to the incoming southern maritime air might make it less cold than it might have been for low lying Vic coastal areas, but up in the Alpine!!!!????


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#1430655 - 14/08/2017 19:08 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5871
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Would love to be back up at Corryong right now! My time to return there will come around soon enough. wink

A shame I was stuck in work in Box Hill today, but today was my warmest day (and night) so far this winter! It dipped to only 14.0°C (my hottest August night on record), and climbed to 22.2°C here in Belgrave, my first 20°C+ day since June 16th when we hit 20.0°C.

My previous record-high August minimum is 13.3°C on August 3rd, while my hottest winter night on record is 14.5°C on July 22nd 2016. My hottest winter day on record is 24.3°C on August 30th 2014.

Glorious mild to warm and mostly sunny, aside from a few light showers that swept through this morning as a result of the pre-frontal trough. Also light winds, and a beautiful sunrise and sunset too!

Hard to believe a week ago it was my coldest day for the year, with a max of only 9.9°C on August 7th, all the more considering my first 20°C+ day for the spring/summer season has arrived roughly a week ahead of schedule; usually it doesn't arrive until around August 21st. Happy that despite the looming cold blasts, the rapid annual springtime warm-up in preparation for summer has finally started!! smile

Currently around 13°C. Looking forward to the heavy rain and storm risk tomorrow, hoping for at least 15-25mm! grin


Edited by aussiestormfreak (14/08/2017 19:14)

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#1430657 - 14/08/2017 19:12 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1031
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
A max of 16.5c up here today 😂😂
Never seen anything like it for this time of
Year lol

Some nice rain looming on the horizon
And then a 500m snow line according
To the BoM for west south gippy on
Friday

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#1430662 - 14/08/2017 19:20 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5871
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Amendment to my last post...

My previous record-high August minimum is 13.3°C on August 3rd 2016. Sorry guys my bad, feeling tired and unwell atm. frown

Further to my above post, I'm looking forward to when the Battle of the Air Masses finally begins in earnest from September onwards, helping to unleash Storm Season 2017/2018! =D


Edited by aussiestormfreak (14/08/2017 19:26)

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#1430677 - 14/08/2017 20:36 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: logansi
What a beautiful day lovely see the big 20 again! Wish I was flying today frown


I was lucky enough to go flying today out in the training area for pre cautionary search and landing practice..... it was gorgeous today. Pity all of that will change frown
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1430693 - 14/08/2017 21:56 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Originally Posted By: logansi
What a beautiful day lovely see the big 20 again! Wish I was flying today frown


I was lucky enough to go flying today out in the training area for pre cautionary search and landing practice..... it was gorgeous today. Pity all of that will change frown


I'm meant to be doing first solo this week but looking great frown
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1430696 - 14/08/2017 22:05 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Today: cloudy morning, sunny afternoon. Warm 23C. Moderate winds from northerly 1/4. Official forecasts and WATL generally edging Wed/Thurs rainfall up for this area: 5 -10 or 11mm and then possible smatterings over the following days. This area is getting VERY dry.

Dooga ... reckon you have chance of some snow on Friday?

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#1430702 - 14/08/2017 22:20 Re: Wet Low impacting Tuesday 15th-Sat 19th Aug. [Re: samboz]
macman Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/03/2010
Posts: 3
Can anyone explain the significance of the blue line on the thickness charts? Something to do with snow? Thanks.

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