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#1412551 - 15/03/2017 14:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
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It's showing kelvin on cfs stormsurf.

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#1412554 - 15/03/2017 14:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
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So your going to totally dismiss the fact NINO 3 and NINO 4 have been cooling since Mid Feb Mike? Only 3.4 NINO counts does it? The rest of the NINO regions we ignore especially NINO 3 and 4 where it counts for us?

Could of sworn NINO 3 and NINO 4 is what covers NINO 3.4 NINO region anyway.. The general region of these 3 areas has cooled, if you choose to stick your head in the sand to ignore this for your own political agendas that's your problem not mine.

I'm just here updating facts Snow not making predictions (even though its a free country and were allowed too) But Mike still feels the need to argue every stat or piece of info that I put up & those of us who have been around for years on these forums know why.


Edited by _Johnno_ (15/03/2017 14:38)
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#1412573 - 15/03/2017 16:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
So your going to totally dismiss the fact NINO 3 and NINO 4 have been cooling since Mid Feb Mike? Only 3.4 NINO counts does it? The rest of the NINO regions we ignore especially NINO 3 and 4 where it counts for us?


Your first post stated that nino 3.4 index was dropping when compared to the model predictions, which are all for the nino 3.4. I have no disagreement with you at this stage about how long nino 3 or nino 4 indexes may have been dropping, or how this might compare with what the models have predicted for these indexes.

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#1412577 - 15/03/2017 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Sorry I just saw the Kelvin wave on CFS.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
[quote=Funkyseefunkydo]looks to be a kelvin wave inducing strong Papuan coastal upwelling. Could be the clincher for elnino.



Charts show solid westerlies just north of PNG. That should introduce significant upwelling along the coast, and could contribute to a Kelvin wave, although my guess is that more westerly activity would be required. But the previous Kelvin wave came from nothing as far as I could tell, so who knows.

Does 200HPa vertical velocity have any significance beyond identifying likely areas of high pressure below sinking air/low pressure under rising air? So lots of sinking air in west Pacific contributing to enhanced trade winds for the last couple of weeks.

Mike Ventrice and several other mets use 200hPa vertical velocity charts as their go to for MJO waves and other waves such as Kelvin and ER waves. I use both them and OLR maps, in addition to RMM indexes.
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#1412698 - 16/03/2017 11:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Seen this guys?

Of course you are going to get the odd daily rise or even weekly rise but since mid February as I have been saying for a number of posts the general trend has been NINO 3.4 temps have been falling which no model has picked out.

Not sure how long this will last possibly not long but interesting to see nevertheless.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
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#1412731 - 16/03/2017 13:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Certainly a downward trend the past month.
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#1412744 - 16/03/2017 14:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Seen this guys?

Of course you are going to get the odd daily rise or even weekly rise but since mid February as I have been saying for a number of posts the general trend has been NINO 3.4 temps have been falling which no model has picked out.

Not sure how long this will last possibly not long but interesting to see nevertheless.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png


Why didn't you show this earlier instead of quoting to me the BOM weekly data which clearly shows a drop on the last two weeks only.

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#1412750 - 16/03/2017 14:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Well the models still aren't backing off El-Nino. March UKMET and JAMSTEC still show very strong El-Nino conditions developing this year. Surely they can't get it so wrong just a couple of months from the predictability barrier?

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#1412810 - 16/03/2017 19:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
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Models have got another strong easterly burst next week. This will be interesting to see if temps continue to decline/stall in general.. It may continue to halt the upward trend that models had few weeks ago for this period.
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#1412818 - 16/03/2017 19:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
All this data shows El Niņo is definitely not a certain.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (16/03/2017 19:38)
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#1412868 - 16/03/2017 22:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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It will happen.

Felt the switch.
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#1412875 - 16/03/2017 23:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I have not felt anything myself. A lot were certain a La Nina was going to happen.

I still think warm neutral to weak El Nino, or El Nino thresholds with an uncooperative atmosphere.

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#1412890 - 17/03/2017 08:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
Also it is not true that all of the models have been forecasting a uniform increase.

Bom currently shows an almost flat period for 2 months. But at a nino 3.4 of about 0.8, so much higher than what we are actually reading.

NASA has a much slower increase over this and the next month, with some individual model runs showing pretty much no increase mar-may.

ECWF had been forecasting a much slower increase Mar to May for the last few months, with maybe a quarter to a third of individual model runs going backward over this period. However its most recent forecast has mostly abandoned this stall.

JMA has an average that goes backwards, but around June or July, and shows an increase on average the current time period.

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#1412964 - 17/03/2017 16:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
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Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Predictibility barrier + reactive models = anyone's guess
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#1412968 - 17/03/2017 16:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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All the March models are in. So let's take a look at the major models. El Niņo threshold = 0.8.

NASA GMAO = Moderate-Strong El Niņo by Spring
CFS = Borderline El Niņo by Spring
JMA = Warm Neutral by Winter
POAMA = Moderate-Strong El Niņo by Spring
ECMWF = Weak El Niņo by Winter
UKMO = Moderate El Niņo by Winter
Chinese model = Borderline El Niņo by Spring
Met France = Strong El Niņo by Winter

Some notes from the minor models...
New Saudi Arabia model, that also has the highest reading of the ENSO charts reviewed. It suggests a very strong El Niņo peaking in Spring/Early Summer.
The IRI forecast has a flat period before winter, when it goes to Borderline El Niņo.

A combination of all the ENSO models show Borderline El Niņo with a peak during Spring of 0.9 degrees above the average. Considering it's impacts at the moment may not be very large, but with a combination of other climate drivers, it might have a very strong impact.

And this doesn't take into account the current atmospheric conditions in the NIŅO region, which are less than favourable for an El Niņo. Interesting stuff!
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#1412969 - 17/03/2017 16:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
And the only dynamic forecast that is going for Cool Neutral, is the Lamont-Doherty model. That's very reactive!
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#1412975 - 17/03/2017 17:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

All the March models are in. So let's take a look at the major models. El Niņo threshold = 0.8.

NASA GMAO = Moderate-Strong El Niņo by Spring
CFS = Borderline El Niņo by Spring
JMA = Warm Neutral by Winter
POAMA = Moderate-Strong El Niņo by Spring
ECMWF = Weak El Niņo by Winter
UKMO = Moderate El Niņo by Winter
Chinese model = Borderline El Niņo by Spring
Met France = Strong El Niņo by Winter

Some notes from the minor models...
New Saudi Arabia model, that also has the highest reading of the ENSO charts reviewed. It suggests a very strong El Niņo peaking in Spring/Early Summer.
The IRI forecast has a flat period before winter, when it goes to Borderline El Niņo.

A combination of all the ENSO models show Borderline El Niņo with a peak during Spring of 0.9 degrees above the average. Considering it's impacts at the moment may not be very large, but with a combination of other climate drivers, it might have a very strong impact.

And this doesn't take into account the current atmospheric conditions in the NIŅO region, which are less than favourable for an El Niņo. Interesting stuff!



Seems to have a few differences with the latest models according to BOM. In particular NASA is currently shown as peaking around 1.7. EC is similar.

My normal approach is to consider the top 4 models, EC, CFS, NASA and JMA. CFS and JMA are kind of outliers on the BOM assessment being borderline el nino, with the other lesser models such as POAMA supporting EC and NASA. My assessment of top 4 is based on some stats I found which date back to 2012 I think, so possibly getting a bit out of date. CFS has chopped and changed a lot last year from forecasting a strong el nino, then a strong La Nina. But CFS was very good in its predictions of the recent extreme el nino with its first predictions of a strong el nino from November 2015. JMA has seemed to forecast on the cool side consisently for the last 12 months.

Another puzzle is that BOM show METEO france with the warmest forecast, but the link to the METEO forecast details shows the IRI plume, with a much lower forecast.

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#1412982 - 17/03/2017 17:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

All the March models are in. So let's take a look at the major models. El Niņo threshold = 0.8.

NASA GMAO = Moderate-Strong El Niņo by Spring
CFS = Borderline El Niņo by Spring
JMA = Warm Neutral by Winter
POAMA = Moderate-Strong El Niņo by Spring
ECMWF = Weak El Niņo by Winter
UKMO = Moderate El Niņo by Winter
Chinese model = Borderline El Niņo by Spring
Met France = Strong El Niņo by Winter

Some notes from the minor models...
New Saudi Arabia model, that also has the highest reading of the ENSO charts reviewed. It suggests a very strong El Niņo peaking in Spring/Early Summer.
The IRI forecast has a flat period before winter, when it goes to Borderline El Niņo.

A combination of all the ENSO models show Borderline El Niņo with a peak during Spring of 0.9 degrees above the average. Considering it's impacts at the moment may not be very large, but with a combination of other climate drivers, it might have a very strong impact.

And this doesn't take into account the current atmospheric conditions in the NIŅO region, which are less than favourable for an El Niņo. Interesting stuff!



Seems to have a few differences with the latest models according to BOM. In particular NASA is currently shown as peaking around 1.7. EC is similar.

My normal approach is to consider the top 4 models, EC, CFS, NASA and JMA. CFS and JMA are kind of outliers on the BOM assessment being borderline el nino, with the other lesser models such as POAMA supporting EC and NASA. My assessment of top 4 is based on some stats I found which date back to 2012 I think, so possibly getting a bit out of date. CFS has chopped and changed a lot last year from forecasting a strong el nino, then a strong La Nina. But CFS was very good in its predictions of the recent extreme el nino with its first predictions of a strong el nino from November 2015. JMA has seemed to forecast on the cool side consisently for the last 12 months.

Another puzzle is that BOM show METEO france with the warmest forecast, but the link to the METEO forecast details shows the IRI plume, with a much lower forecast.

1. I understand the BOM has a non public link to Met France's ENSO forecast.
2. The IRI plume is made when all the models are updated, so some may change before the plume is published.
3. In the ENSO game and seasonal forecasting in general, a top 4 doesn't exist IMO. All Seasonal forecasting plots are mostly unreliable. You must use all the available plots to get the most accurate plots. It's not like the 7 day forecast you can just get the EC chart and you are done.
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#1413021 - 17/03/2017 20:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1601
Loc: Kingaroy
According to this article, we're still feeling the affects of the last El Nino which could fuel the one predicted this year.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/could-leftover-heat-from-last-el-ni-o-fuel-a-new-one

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#1413345 - 19/03/2017 11:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Those 2c+ temps in NINO 1 and 2 is starting to cause all sorts of problem in South America

http://news.trust.org/item/20170317231203-gvjhc/
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