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#1428321 - 18/07/2017 14:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
Biggest trade wind surge since March. At least by TAO obs so far. Hard to tell from forecast whether it will get stronger IMO. CFS 30 day forecast has it continuing unabated for the next 30 days, which should give cooling a good chance to set in.

TAO also suggests the strongest WWB for the year (which is not all that strong) at the same time, in the far west. Could cause a Kelvin wave - I think the enhanced trades in the central Pacific might actually enhance the generation of a Kelvin Wave. But would have to wait and see what this means. To date the warming trend has not been built on Kelvin Waves, and is in a different location to where a Kelvin wave has the strongest impact.

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#1428331 - 18/07/2017 14:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Hi Mike,

How close to El Nino, La Nina or Neutral do you think the Pacific will be for the remainder of the year, and what parts of the country will be mostly affected and how, do you think? Just asking your opinion smile .

I think it may be neutral but do not follow the ENSO much due to being in SA.

Kind Regards,
Seira.


Edited by Seira (18/07/2017 14:54)

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#1428512 - 20/07/2017 15:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
Warm neutral to borderline el nino. Depending on what happens with the current trade wind burst. If it strengthens and becomes longer term maybe it could get to cool neutral, although La Nina seems far fetched to me at this stage.

Impacts of a typical el nino are dryer conditions across inland NSW Qld in particular during winter spring. Rainfall impact to date (June + July to date) is similar to a moderate to strong el nino, but early days yet and could easily be wetter in next months.

If the trade winds weaken again and the warming trend continues the pattern of development of this el nino has been quite unusual and I would not be suprised if the impacts are unusual as well.

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#1428602 - 21/07/2017 20:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Quote:

The El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO neutral for the rest of 2017.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific (the NINO3.4 region) have been warmer than average, though still in the neutral range, since mid-April. The current NINO3.4 value of +0.5 °C is the result of a localised warm anomaly. The overall sea surface temperature pattern is inconsistent with a developing El Niņo, meaning further ocean warming and El Niņo development remains unlikely. This is reflected in neutral ENSO outlooks from all international climate models surveyed. Other indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index, cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds also remain at neutral levels.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. However, two of six climate models suggest positive IOD thresholds could be reached in the coming months. Only one of these models suggests these will last long enough to be considered a positive IOD event. Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average winter and spring rainfall over central and southern Australia.

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#1428608 - 21/07/2017 20:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
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Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
How on earth does the IOD come out as neutral??? It looks like the chuck of the ice shelf from Antartica parked itself off the coast of Broome!

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#1428682 - 22/07/2017 23:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1533
Loc: Southern Victoria
The western comparison area of the IOD had some huge upwelling influenced cooling in mid June feeding off the African coast . Which really stopped the Positive in its tracks . The ITF and the Oacific trending away from EL Nino thresholds and well on its way to Cool neutral has seen some warmer transportation of waters down from the Nth to the Eastern comparison region . Give it time and by late winter early spring you should see more NW Infeeds . Probably too late for farming , but good for water storages . As hopefully the wetter trend will make an Impact before w.e head into the warmer transition and evaporation cycles . Here's hoping anyway .
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#1428727 - 23/07/2017 20:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
It's all temperature depending really. It we don't see a hot NW wind day, a lot of damage could be avoided but painful memories tell me that the hot stuff is only a couple of weeks away. By hot I am. It talking heatwave or anything like that but 20-25c with a decent wind rips huge amounts of moisture from dry paddocks. Then you have the lucky ones like some of my friends back home. They have had there average growing season rainfalls already so they have a huge bank of moisture to lean on if and when it does come.

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#1428728 - 23/07/2017 20:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Rainfall impact to date (June + July to date) is similar to a moderate to strong el nino, but early days yet and could easily be wetter in next months.

Ok let's skip opinion stuff; this is not working out. If I said an enormous upper ridge is sitting up the NSW/QLD coast, and the rainfall is low there, for 2-3 months, does that mean the upper ridge caused the low rainfall. What evidence do I have?


Edited by Seira (23/07/2017 20:38)

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#1428733 - 23/07/2017 21:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looks more likely to be cool neutral to me for sure. Possibly even weak La Nina. Has looked this way for awhile now.
Spring def looking wetter than what it was looking.

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#1428790 - 24/07/2017 19:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1428920 - 26/07/2017 11:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1601
Loc: Kingaroy
The SOI is starting to come up which could be the first indication of a shift towards a cool neutral to possibly even La Nina conditions especially if the big trade wind surges continue.

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#1428936 - 26/07/2017 13:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Not sure about a weak La nina to much warm water above mixing in not allowing things to cool quicker. El Nino possibility has done its dash we may see a brief cool neutral period for a few months but that's as far as I think it will go. Constant 2 months of trade winds blowing since early June and the NINO 3.4 temp anomaly has only fallen 0.2c from 0.6c to 0.4c this week and that's without any WWB's so will take an almighty effort to see an a weak La nina from here.

Most models indicate warm neutral to continue bar POAMA and CFS. I'm thinking between now and end of the year the range will be between +0.3c to -0.3c which is pretty much bang on neutral.


Edited by _Johnno_ (26/07/2017 13:27)
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#1428937 - 26/07/2017 13:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
POAMA has temps of -0.7c as we move into August there's the first error. 3.4 NINO temps WILL NOT fall 1.1c in the next couple of weeks after ONLY falling 0.2c in two months.. Very unlikely. POAMA is overdoing the cooling. Temps will slowly fall but not that much and in that quick time.


Edited by _Johnno_ (26/07/2017 13:28)
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#1428967 - 26/07/2017 21:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
3.4 has just plunged to below 0.0c for the first time since March, and if GFS / EC are anything to go by, then you'd have to expect further cooling in the coming weeks.


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#1428973 - 27/07/2017 00:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Well that's interesting Mega.. NOAA has it at +0.4c on Monday.
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#1428976 - 27/07/2017 07:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Well that's interesting Mega.. NOAA has it at +0.4c on Monday.


Yeah I'd love to know the data source it's using, was posted by a Met on twitter. NOAA's weekly induces should be out today too.

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#1429023 - 27/07/2017 17:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17908
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Unisys seems to agree with Mega's observation.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur
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#1429093 - 28/07/2017 16:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4360
Loc: Brisbane
Looks like some solid trades showing up on the GFS forecast for the coming weeks. Might be enough to push the forecasts into La Nina territory if accurate.
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#1429096 - 28/07/2017 17:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
CDAS, which, keep in mind, uses satellite data, has dropped below 0c now too:


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#1429099 - 28/07/2017 17:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Great to see Mega
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