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#1429103 - 28/07/2017 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12557
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
When was the last time NINO3.4 dropped below 0?
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1429122 - 28/07/2017 21:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2020
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
January this year.

It was persistently negative from about June last year to January this year.In the neutral range though.

Of course that does not mean it will rain.

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#1429481 - 01/08/2017 16:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4293
Loc: Brisbane
Some serious cooling starting to show up now. I can't seem to embed the T-depth animation but you can see for yourself at

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

The EQ. Upper-Ocean Heat Anomalies speaks for itself.



GFS still has solid trades for the coming weeks in the central Pacific. How long before we see a La Nina watch.

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#1429512 - 01/08/2017 20:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5293
Loc: Not tellin!
If it does go to La Niña, it will make a mockery of the models most of them had us burning in hell by now! ( yes I know that's not right but they were all going for at least a moderate Elnino.

If this comes off, maybe it's time to look at the drivers and assumptions being used to come up with these "predictions"

What do you think Mike????


Edited by adon (01/08/2017 20:16)

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#1429516 - 01/08/2017 21:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7024
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Maybe we could have a look at the CPC Equatorial Pacific Thermocline Depth since the 28th of May smile !?!

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#1429518 - 01/08/2017 21:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4293
Loc: Brisbane
Sure put up a link.

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#1429522 - 01/08/2017 22:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7024
Loc: Adelaide Hills.

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#1429525 - 01/08/2017 22:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1771
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
That's crazy how suddenly those cooler waters have appeared and the warmer waters just disappeared. I thought it was an error in the animation at first.

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#1429538 - 02/08/2017 07:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4293
Loc: Brisbane
Nice Seira. That's what I tired to unsuccessfully link in my first post.

With consistent trades in the forecast and looking at where we currently stand cool anomalies will persist for a while yet.

The SOI is also starting to play ball.


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#1429551 - 02/08/2017 09:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
Kev in Bello Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5039
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
That's crazy how suddenly those cooler waters have appeared and the warmer waters just disappeared. I thought it was an error in the animation at first.



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#1429868 - 05/08/2017 20:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5293
Loc: Not tellin!
If the cool spot off the NW coast would warm as quickly as this patch in the Pacific, we could get quite wet! The IFT is starting to move warm water west.

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#1429997 - 07/08/2017 07:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1542
Loc: Kingaroy
What is the IFT? If La Nina does indeed form this year it will turn what we currently know about the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on it's head because you normally have to have a strong El Nino before you can get a La Nina.

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#1430004 - 07/08/2017 08:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2020
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Is the opposite true though? You need a strong La Nina to have an El Nino?

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#1430005 - 07/08/2017 08:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5293
Loc: Not tellin!

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#1430008 - 07/08/2017 08:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1542
Loc: Kingaroy
I'm not sure. La Nina is like a counter weight it balances out the global temperature fluctuations caused by El Nino. There was no La Nina in 2016 which led to the extreme weather patterns that we saw last year and early this year.

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#1430013 - 07/08/2017 09:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1608
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Thanks for the link Adon, It was a good read.
_________________________
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1430108 - 07/08/2017 20:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 467
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looks like the IoD is skyrocketing positive.

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#1430133 - 07/08/2017 21:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5293
Loc: Not tellin!
Yeah......bugger

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#1430174 - 08/08/2017 15:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 467
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Some of you may know Per Strandberg. Tweeted yesterday. :
'Note, I have discovered a bug in my software which has made the result less reliable.'
'The consequence of this is that I’m not going to update my ENSO forecast in the near future.'

Will just stick to tweeting anti GW you tube vids.

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#1430279 - 09/08/2017 18:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2020
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Wow lots of cool SST anomalies along the equator now.

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