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#1430957 - 17/08/2017 10:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus

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#1430963 - 17/08/2017 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
This is the same Joe Bastardi that was telling us a few months back that a decent El Nino was coming on? He's just following the models that are following what is actually happening. Think he's spending too much time retweeting Trump's posts...I usually watch what he has to say but this year he has been off the mark on the tropical Pacific.
Can see all three main influencers for us in the neutral (SAM, IOD, ENSO) so will be interesting to see what this year brings...and what happens after this season. BoM mention the unmentionable (at least in this forum) as one of their reasons why day and night temps will be above normal across much of Aus, but looking like average rainfall likely. Can actually see a really decent storm season for NENSW SEQLD coming up smile

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#1430964 - 17/08/2017 12:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17908
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
Can actually see a really decent storm season for NENSW SEQLD coming up smile


Yes, me also. Here's hoping anyway.

Also , I agree on the Bastardi comment but he wasn't the only one.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1430967 - 17/08/2017 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
This is the same Joe Bastardi that was telling us a few months back that a decent El Nino was coming on? He's just following the models that are following what is actually happening. Think he's spending too much time retweeting Trump's posts...I usually watch what he has to say but this year he has been off the mark on the tropical Pacific.
Can see all three main influencers for us in the neutral (SAM, IOD, ENSO) so will be interesting to see what this year brings...and what happens after this season. BoM mention the unmentionable (at least in this forum) as one of their reasons why day and night temps will be above normal across much of Aus, but looking like average rainfall likely. Can actually see a really decent storm season for NENSW SEQLD coming up smile


A - people are allowed to change their opinions & minds, surely? Gee whiz 🙄🙄🙄🙄

B - why bring politics into here. There was no need to reference Trump, surely.


Edited by Kino (17/08/2017 12:31)

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#1430971 - 17/08/2017 13:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
This is the same Joe Bastardi that was telling us a few months back that a decent El Nino was coming on? He's just following the models that are following what is actually happening. Think he's spending too much time retweeting Trump's posts...I usually watch what he has to say but this year he has been off the mark on the tropical Pacific.
Can see all three main influencers for us in the neutral (SAM, IOD, ENSO) so will be interesting to see what this year brings...and what happens after this season. BoM mention the unmentionable (at least in this forum) as one of their reasons why day and night temps will be above normal across much of Aus, but looking like average rainfall likely. Can actually see a really decent storm season for NENSW SEQLD coming up smile
[quote=Kev in Bello]

To be fair most people that follow weather would have agreed with him. Now I have not followed his stuff of late(or at all really) but my issue is those who refuse to acknowledge their thoughts were wrong and to make matters worse squirm and wiggle to make it look as though they were never really wrong!

It was pretty obvious months ago to a lot of us that things were. It going according to plan and started looking not so much in models butlooking at what was actually happening. It may not have had any forecast skill about it but neither did the models!

It looks like the IOD is doing the same and changing too. I thought it would have been a cracking positive phase and for about a week it was but it seems to be fading too.

As for political tweets, casting stones from a glass house is always bound to end badly for anyone.......


Edited by adon (17/08/2017 13:29)

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#1430972 - 17/08/2017 13:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ones political Tweets doesn't render their views/opinions regarding weather/climate invalid?

I bet certain people in here retweet Sarah Hanson-Young, doesn't mean I'm going to dismiss their climate/weather views/opinions.

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#1430977 - 17/08/2017 14:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I used to follow Bastardi closely but not anymore. Nothing to do with his political stance, but because he's become way too outspoken and will block anyone who dares disagree with this meteorological stance on something (even fellow Mets). As Kev said, he's also been way off the mark of late, not only relating to the Pacific but also when it comes to US climate predictions. You won't ever see him admit he was wrong though. Guys like Ben Noll, Michael Ventrice, Eric Blake, Jason Nicholls...the list goes on, actually have really insightful discussions with each other on twitter and don't try to over sensationalize everything.

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#1430978 - 17/08/2017 14:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Certainly stirred that one up. My comment was "Think he's spending too much time retweeting Trump's posts..." - that if you look at his posts the majority are political and not weather related...wondering if that has got most of his attention...
I'll come clean as well @Adon I definitely saw a decent El Nino coming...nothing like it happening. I'll also come clean @Kino - I am no fan of Trump, so definitely some bias in there.
I'll happily come out with my thoughts - decent storm season NENSW SEQLD, wet summer across the east coast and then dry next year with decent chances of a Nino kicking in. Welcome to quote me in 6 months and laugh at my naivety smile

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#1430981 - 17/08/2017 14:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
Certainly stirred that one up. My comment was "Think he's spending too much time retweeting Trump's posts..." - that if you look at his posts the majority are political and not weather related...wondering if that has got most of his attention...
I'll come clean as well @Adon I definitely saw a decent El Nino coming...nothing like it happening. I'll also come clean @Kino - I am no fan of Trump, so definitely some bias in there.
I'll happily come out with my thoughts - decent storm season NENSW SEQLD, wet summer across the east coast and then dry next year with decent chances of a Nino kicking in. Welcome to quote me in 6 months and laugh at my naivety smile


Fair enough, and appreciate your comments.

If the SST's stay the way they are AND that cooling happens, it's hard not to think we will see a wet Spring/Summer. Looking at latest EC Ensemble, if that thermal trough comes off, could be a significant sign of what's to come (would expect to see severe storms NE NSW / SE QLD with decent heavy rainfall right along the NSW coast IMO).

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#1430983 - 17/08/2017 14:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
I used to follow Bastardi closely but not anymore. Nothing to do with his political stance, but because he's become way too outspoken and will block anyone who dares disagree with this meteorological stance on something (even fellow Mets). As Kev said, he's also been way off the mark of late, not only relating to the Pacific but also when it comes to US climate predictions. You won't ever see him admit he was wrong though. Guys like Ben Noll, Michael Ventrice, Eric Blake, Jason Nicholls...the list goes on, actually have really insightful discussions with each other on twitter and don't try to over sensationalize everything.


Agree, some of his recent postings have not even made sense TBH, quite ramble, like he's got quite eccentric lately.


Edited by Kino (17/08/2017 14:41)

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#1430984 - 17/08/2017 14:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
laugh I'll come clean...... I have no bloody idea what will happen! For a person who actually stood for an election, I am not a fan of many(like maybe 2) politicians.

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#1430987 - 17/08/2017 15:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: adon
laugh I'll come clean...... I have no bloody idea what will happen! For a person who actually stood for an election, I am not a fan of many(like maybe 2) politicians.



Good on you! Least you put your money where your mouth is. #respect

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#1430988 - 17/08/2017 15:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Trade winds just keep on blowin':


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#1430990 - 17/08/2017 15:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17908
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Some may be interested in this article.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...ge-temperatures
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1430991 - 17/08/2017 15:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Wow, don't they just. Can see why the models think a La Nina is coming on...
Have been watching this one: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellit...fic_930x580.gif

Gives a good idea of changes over time. You can see the warm water from the Pacific spilling across into the indian Ocean and impacting on the IOD. You can also see the waters off the east coast and in the Coral Sea warming up (even after taking seasonal changes into account) - and check out the hot waters way to the north of us. Amazing to see just how much of the ocean is above average - the La Nina, if it kicks off, will be the exception.

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#1430992 - 17/08/2017 16:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Just bookmarked that one Kev, thanks.

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#1430994 - 17/08/2017 16:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mega
Just bookmarked that one Kev, thanks.

This is the main site and has animations of anoms, SSTs, 7 day changes...everything you could want and more. When I try to get my head around what is happening some of these animations help clarify what is going on. The archive is also pretty useful.

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#1430996 - 17/08/2017 16:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
Originally Posted By: Mega
Just bookmarked that one Kev, thanks.

This is the main site and has animations of anoms, SSTs, 7 day changes...everything you could want and more. When I try to get my head around what is happening some of these animations help clarify what is going on. The archive is also pretty useful.


Yeah, they're awesome, cheers! That cold upwelling is incredible. Hope it continues smile

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#1431042 - 17/08/2017 20:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Thanks Kev! Bookmarked too!

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#1431054 - 18/08/2017 06:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega
Trade winds just keep on blowin':



A lot of the easterly anomalies are mostly to the west of 180 where they supress warm kelvin wave activity, but don't do much directly to cool the nino regions. Westerly anomalies are showing in the east Pacific. Still some area of enhanced trade winds far enough east to be a cooling influence if verified.

CFS is similar but more pessimistic with a wider area of esterly anomalies and a narrower area of enhanced trades. Overall i'd say CFS has westelies dominating. Latest TAO data seems to confirm a weak warm kelvin wave is in progress, so i'd expect warming for the next few weeks if CFS verifies.

Also both CFS and EC show that westerly anomalies are currently dominating much of central and eastern pacific, however TAO charts are showing easterly anomalies. Sometimes the TAO charts can be a bit flaky right at the end, and its possible that they will change to agree more with CFS/EC in the next day or three. Current EC and GFS forecast models suggest westerly anomalies strengthening quite a lot, but only briefly around 48 to 72 hours, however i consider these the least reliable indication of future trade wind activity - but much better within this relatively short time period.

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