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#1432920 - 05/09/2017 18:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Seira
Hi snowbooby, I think Gray, Sheaffer and Knaff are onto something by proposing an off-equatorial wave-driven disruption the west/east QBO cycle – it may also have something to do with the ITCZ and Hadley Cell expansion over Northern Australia. The question is (if this was of first disruption to the pattern since records began), what are the consequences?

I am still looking through their suggestions so my thoughts are tentative.

I assume we would not be in mid of QBO phase change - outgoing westerly, incoming easterly -but at some other point in the cycle, so consequences flow just from that.

The suggestion is that with easterly phase established(or imminent) a trigger for nino may be provided if there is a fully “charged western warm pool”. (Need to confirm. I’m not sure what the most reliable, accurate source for such assessment would be - time series of warm water volumes, anomolous ssts etc)

Complication is the descent of the easterly phase QBO is fairly frequently delayed just about where it is at present.

Possibly more to follow.....

Thanks for the feedback smile .

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#1432921 - 05/09/2017 18:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1455
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Wow, just checked the long paddock and what a change. I looked at the Sept to November rainfall forecast and blue everywhere. Last of all checked the years with the similar conditions and 1974 has poked its head in. So if this keeps up, we are going to have some very useful rain and a cool summer. I think now the chances of severe storms will be less, but with more dramatic rainfall. I'm very happy with the way things are going and for me, is totally unexpected. My only concern is that the warmer waters aren't as close to the east Australian coastline and the temps off sth america need to drop another degree.
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#1432922 - 05/09/2017 18:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: paulcirrus]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Wow, just checked the long paddock and what a change. I looked at the Sept to November rainfall forecast and blue everywhere. Last of all checked the years with the similar conditions and 1974 has poked its head in. So if this keeps up, we are going to have some very useful rain and a cool summer. I think now the chances of severe storms will be less, but with more dramatic rainfall. I'm very happy with the way things are going and for me, is totally unexpected. My only concern is that the warmer waters aren't as close to the east Australian coastline and the temps off sth america need to drop another degree.


Any linkys please? smile

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#1432934 - 05/09/2017 20:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1455
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Kino, you have heard of google search? Type long paddock, but here it is: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/
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#1432937 - 05/09/2017 20:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: paulcirrus]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Kino, you have heard of google search? Type long paddock, but here it is: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/


No need to be rude, I was asking for the specific one you were referring to. But I'll turn to Google - types in "what map was paulcirrus referring too" - nil results....

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#1432938 - 05/09/2017 20:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17908
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Here

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso.../Queensland.gif

I'm keen to see next month's 3 month forecast. I can't see much happening in the short term (2-3 weeks) but would love to be wrong.
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#1432940 - 05/09/2017 20:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Here

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso.../Queensland.gif

I'm keen to see next month's 3 month forecast. I can't see much happening in the short term (2-3 weeks) but would love to be wrong.


Cheers CF, interesting outlook.

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#1432941 - 05/09/2017 20:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Actually snowbooby smile …I’d like to add to your ideas (I saved this last night smile ):

[It looks like] The easterlies did not actually connect up above 50 mb (in the stratosphere) from thereafter (2016-2017), the record going back to 1953.

As convection would mean strong thermals pushing into the lower stratosphere, it seems to me to make sense that if a strong thunderstorm (for example) was pushing vertically hard-enough, it would mix the air surrounding it – leading to upper-tropospheric eddies (turbulence), or wind shear. This wind shear, when it reaches the 200-to-50 mb region, could weaken the QBO westerlies, and contribute to the QBO easterlies. However, as the westerlies are generally weaker than the easterlies (15 to 20 m/s compared to 30 to 35 m/s), the easterlies could actually be enhanced more (as they move from 200 mb to 50 mb, in the vertical, not 50 mb to 200 mb). As ENSO tends to deal with Kelvin waves, Ocean-Front Waves, Trade Winds and SSTs (wind stress), I think it might be particularly important where the ITCZ is based. Without the ITCZ, strong convection would be limited [outside ITCZ].

[] – Added Today.
Source.

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#1432945 - 05/09/2017 21:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1254
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
For anyone else interested, this is a nice little explanation of the QBO.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

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#1432953 - 06/09/2017 02:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: S .O.]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1533
Loc: Southern Victoria
Originally Posted By: S .O.
I wouldn't bet on that .
Although we've seen warm upwelling off the South/ Central American coast . Since its happened the Atmosphere has gone more La Nina orientated than even when we were heading for Nina in June last year . Two strong Highs have set up either side of the Equatorial Tropics in the Eastern Pacific .

And finally the South Pacific has seen a continous easterly flow accross its entire length without a interupting / breaking low . ( Hence coastal NSW QLD finally getting some respite ) .
The North East Pacific also just had a 1045 High dominate its Eastern Half in the last week up until today .

It seems the lack of Oceanic / Atmospheric coupling trend continues . Could we have just seen this be a pause in a long building La Nina ?



Mike this was about the time that you started to get fixated on the warm subsurface , but the atmosphere locked into a La Niña pattern before the warm mid Pacific Sub surface could embed itself .
So now we have both the atmophere and SST's about to couple .
Ever since Feb/March the Atmosphere has seen off this warm upwelling and in the Far East and is now continuing into a La Niña coupling . And we are not just talking about one side of the Equator . Both Nth and Sth East Pacific have broad areas of cooler surface water . So no lingering "Blob" to create the stall we saw late last year . I think this turnaround / flip flop is going to catch a few people off guard .
Oh and for the record AGW can only spell more variance in the ENSO signals , from heightened signatures . But like other arguments , the negative feedbacks of these overcharged signals will provide a tempering effect that will see the kind of crazy bounces that we have witnessed in the last 3-4 years .
Of course this will change when the IPO trend switches back . But like the early 1900's full cycle , there will be far less intense prolonged periods and infrequent erratic shifts and out of trend events this time around . Compared to the back to back cut and dry pattern/cycle we saw of cool wet from the 40's to mid 70's and then dry warm from the mid 70's to 00's ....
Oh and Johnno ? , I don't think positive IOD and La Niña's are rare . Just that the Positive IOD will delay but then increase the rapidity of a building La Nina's precipitive delivery in continental Aust. As in it will be late but a more abrupt shift to noticeable effects of the La Niña here .


Edited by S .O. (06/09/2017 02:23)
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#1432984 - 06/09/2017 09:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1601
Loc: Kingaroy
The flooding in South Asia and the upsurge in Atlantic hurricane activity could be an indication of the atmosphere shifting to a La Ninalike state. Hopefully we get some decent rain from it.

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#1432989 - 06/09/2017 11:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
Can't see much has changed in atmospheric patterns, with the global pressure patterns for the last 30 days similar to what I've seen for much of the last year:



NE Pacific: High pressure weakened, tropical activity enhanced. El nino like
SE Pacific: High pressure strengthened. La Nina Like
SW Pacific: High pressure weakened, tropical activity shifted NE away from coral sea. El Nino like
NE Pacific: High pressure strengthened. Tropical activity shifted a long way north and west by this high pressure. La Nina Like.

The SE high pressure seems to be a bit stronger past 30 days, but the NE high pressure is weaker. We are at peak of tropical activity to the north which means the el nino like tropical activity in SW pacific is almost totally dead and having almost no impact on trades. NE Pacific tropical activity is further north with reduced impact on equator, and SE strong high pressure is further north with greater impact on equator.

If these patterns hold, and they seem to have been in place for most of the last year, then I suspect that as the season changes to SH summer, the LA Nina like influence of the SE Pacific on the equator will become less important, and the El Nino like influence of NE and SW Pacific will become more important. La Nina like influence of the NW pacific is probably important in both seasons, but maybe more-so in out winter/spring.

Indian Ocean has lots of low pressure near equator which I think is working with NW Pacific high to increase equatorial trades through far west Pacific and to north of Australia.

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#1432990 - 06/09/2017 11:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Thanks S.O

Anyone got the indices for the IOD at the moment? Going by the ssts anomalies maps it is starting to look like a traditional Positive IOD now with cooling off Sumatra as well.
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#1432991 - 06/09/2017 11:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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#1432993 - 06/09/2017 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1689
Our saving grace is the Pacific going cool and slowly strengthening which may be helping with waters staying warmer than normal across northern OZ and I guess as S.O points out that will only spread more westwards as we move deeper into Spring as the POS IOD starts fading away by November with the Pacific taking more control.
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#1433004 - 06/09/2017 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
I'm Happy for climate change thread to be opened again

I'm not. Change the approach to discussion or accept that the re-opened thread/s won't change!

Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
That way this thread can be left alone and call it and be used for what it is an ENSO/IOD/SAM thread and NOTHING ELSE.

I agree.


Edited by Seira (06/09/2017 14:30)

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#1433005 - 06/09/2017 14:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17908
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Our saving grace is the Pacific going cool and slowly strengthening which may be helping with waters staying warmer than normal across northern OZ and I guess as S.O points out that will only spread more westwards as we move deeper into Spring as the POS IOD starts fading away by November with the Pacific taking more control.


Here's hoping. Total fire ban again today at home.
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#1433023 - 06/09/2017 16:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1601
Loc: Kingaroy
It's very dry at the moment.

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#1433037 - 06/09/2017 17:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
That last run on the coralwatch animation! Wow

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#1433049 - 06/09/2017 19:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2903
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Doesnt that deep blue running west along the equator look great!

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