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#1433740 - 12/09/2017 12:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Had a couple of little frogs croak at me this morning, havnt heard from them for ages.

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#1433778 - 12/09/2017 18:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Yeah mad elf we had frogs croaking today and heard the first cicadas of spring a few days ago. Pretty warm this evening with doors and windows still open, probably the first 30C+ of the season tomorrow. Spring is definitely here but rain won't be for a while yet. Hurry up November!
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1433815 - 13/09/2017 07:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: LightningGus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Posted this in the ENSO thread:

Just be patient guys. The atmosphere can't ignore the significant cooling for much longer and the IOD is weakening. October will see the big switch. CFS is already onto this, showing significant wet signals for October.

Gotta wonder how strong this La Nina will be. CFS has Nina down to -1.5, but below -1 for almost 5 months. For days all the newest runs have been below -1.5 with a lot dipping down to -2.

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#1433817 - 13/09/2017 07:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 613
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Hard to believe that a La Nina could evolve from the way things are but its good to hear there's a ray of hope out there lets thanks for injecting some positivity NF fingers crossed.

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#1433830 - 13/09/2017 09:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
You don't necessarily have to have El Nino before you can get a La Nina.

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#1433835 - 13/09/2017 09:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 613
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Whether it is or it isnt theres no doubting it feels like an el nino drought like conditions over most of the east coast and inland anyway hoping for some sort of change to prevent the eastern states from turning into a dustbowl

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#1433838 - 13/09/2017 09:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
So what is this big turn around going to be? A couple of storms over Brisbane and along the coast or a genuine mid to late spring rain event or two. Spring is a bizarre time of year and anything can happen and sometimes seems to have no relation to the state of enso.

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#1433845 - 13/09/2017 10:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Mike made a good suggestion in the climate driver thread. Go to the BOM climate section and explore the rainfall archives, especially the Deciles. Incredibly informative. I have tried to put a link but it ain't working, must be doing something wrong.


Edited by Hopefull (13/09/2017 10:10)

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#1433855 - 13/09/2017 10:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2928
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
This thread is to discuss day to day weather not climate drivers that are months away.

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#1433857 - 13/09/2017 10:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Day to day weather!!!. What's to discuss?. We are only talking about next month.

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#1433859 - 13/09/2017 11:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
To me when frogs start croaking at me, there be rain on its way. Elders 28 day rain forecast is very optimistic about first weekend in October. It would be nice, still a long way away though.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/09/2017 11:34)

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#1433862 - 13/09/2017 11:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
The frogs here only start croaking after rain starts falling or when it's very humid at night.

I always can't help get the feeling that when we have a long spell of much drier than normal conditions, when it does finally break (which can be awhile), it seems to break in a big way... although not necessarily prolonged or enough to break drought conditions. Not based on anything scientific though of course.

If anyone cares, here's a few graphics for tomorrow. That OCF map of probabilities of precip is for between 9am tomorrow and 9am Fri.
(and the 1st graphic is a forecast multimodel plume of NINO3.4 SST anomalies showing most models currently still going for either neutral ENSO or a La Nina later this spring or summer).

The main aspects will be

1) significant fire dangers
2) strong wind gusts especially over higher ground inland
3) inland shower/thunderstorm activity later today/early tomorrow... some could be gusty...but not much rainfall reaching the ground







[/img]

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#1433873 - 13/09/2017 12:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2928
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Hopefull im looking to the west and surprisingly there is some weak convection. Which makes me think there might be some pre frontal convection later this evening which is something worth discussing if you are into photography or other weather related phenomenon.


Edited by Seabreeze (13/09/2017 14:26)
Edit Reason: unnecessary remark

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#1433874 - 13/09/2017 12:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Best looking cloud I've seen for many weeks to our west.

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#1433886 - 13/09/2017 14:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1663
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Overcast out here. Baro is dropping. Might get a rumble and sprinkle later on ,Would like some rain my solar panels are covered in dust, Right next to the Warrago Hwy and road trains lol.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1433907 - 13/09/2017 15:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
Day to day weather!!!. What's to discuss?. We are only talking about next month.


Tell me about it. Better to just stick to the Climate Drivers / ENSO thread for anything past next week or you're bound to step on a few toes in here. Lots to learn and discuss in there which is more than I can say about this thread as of late.

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#1433926 - 13/09/2017 17:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
By the way, the day-to-day weather thread is very flexible. It's really a 'General Weather' kind-of thread but specifically for our region. It includes things like, current weather if it's not event thread-worthy (no matter how boring/mundane the weather may be), past/historical weather, and also potential future weather (including how ENSO & IOD etc. may affect our area in the coming months). It has even moonlighted as the SEQLD/NENSW Day to Day Gardening thread on occasion during times of quiet weather. grin
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1433941 - 13/09/2017 19:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 982
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I saw some of that cloud today too Doug , I call it cumulo false hope.

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#1433946 - 13/09/2017 20:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
There's been a fairly impressive extent of convective cloud build-up over the inland this afternoon/evening as per the Weatherzone image below but as expected, hardly anything reaching the ground as far as the Downs go... til recently:



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#1433947 - 13/09/2017 20:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Still a bit of lightning in that small cell approaching the far SE Granite Belt atm

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