Page 46 of 129 < 1 2 ... 44 45 46 47 48 ... 128 129 >
Topic Options
#1420672 - 04/04/2017 08:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
We should know by the end of winter whether El Nino will form or not. What we need now is follow up rain.

Top
#1420692 - 04/04/2017 11:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

Yeah unfortunately the atmosphere is not cooperating on that. Trades are continuing which makes an proper 3+4 El Niņo unlikely until they abate. Again the models are ocean based, they don't take into account the atmosphere.


I doubt that. CFS for instance generates a variety of ouputs of atmospheric conditions. And how would an ocean based model forecast the amplification of an ENSO event when atmospheric processes dominate the response.

Top
#1420727 - 04/04/2017 19:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 180
Loc: Gympie
Cant believe it's only 19.5C atm. I think Autumn has finally arrived.

Top
#1420728 - 04/04/2017 19:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 178
Loc: Tallai, QLD
On another note, our own day to day weather, BOM has some increased precip in the coming days.
Anyone got a tech explanation to the forces driving it please. DD
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

Top
#1420729 - 04/04/2017 19:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
26.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. Today has been drier with only 3.8mm since 9am. The showery onshore flow looks like it will stick around until Saturday morning.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

Top
#1420730 - 04/04/2017 19:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: DDstorm]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
On another note, our own day to day weather, BOM has some increased precip in the coming days.
Anyone got a tech explanation to the forces driving it please. DD

The flow slowly turns more onshore from tomorrow coupled with cold air moving in aloft later this week associated with an upper low moving across NSW.

Not expecting big totals - just a temporary increase in showery weather with the outside chance of a few places in southern parts of NE NSW/SE QLD getting some hit and miss localised thunder/small hail. Should get a bit cooler further yet during the next few days before temps rise a little.

Top
#1420731 - 04/04/2017 19:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

Yeah unfortunately the atmosphere is not cooperating on that. Trades are continuing which makes an proper 3+4 El Niņo unlikely until they abate. Again the models are ocean based, they don't take into account the atmosphere.


I doubt that. CFS for instance generates a variety of ouputs of atmospheric conditions. And how would an ocean based model forecast the amplification of an ENSO event when atmospheric processes dominate the response.

The majority of the main seasonal forecast models these days are actually fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models including CFSV2, POAMA, EC, etc, not just ocean-driven. In other words, the model's ocean feeds back into the model's atmosphere and vice versa.

Top
#1420732 - 04/04/2017 20:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

Yeah unfortunately the atmosphere is not cooperating on that. Trades are continuing which makes an proper 3+4 El Niņo unlikely until they abate. Again the models are ocean based, they don't take into account the atmosphere.


I doubt that. CFS for instance generates a variety of ouputs of atmospheric conditions. And how would an ocean based model forecast the amplification of an ENSO event when atmospheric processes dominate the response.

The majority of the main seasonal forecast models these days are actually fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models including CFSV2, POAMA, EC, etc, not just ocean-driven. In other words, the model's ocean feeds back into the model's atmosphere and vice versa.

Fair call.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1420734 - 04/04/2017 20:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
On another note, our own day to day weather, BOM has some increased precip in the coming days.
Anyone got a tech explanation to the forces driving it please. DD

The flow slowly turns more onshore from tomorrow coupled with cold air moving in aloft later this week associated with an upper low moving across NSW.

Not expecting big totals - just a temporary increase in showery weather with the outside chance of a few places in southern parts of NE NSW/SE QLD getting some hit and miss localised thunder/small hail. Should get a bit cooler further yet during the next few days before temps rise a little.
Just to add to Ken's post, you can see the Upper Low move across on the charts (from the GFS 00z forecast. Chart used: 500mb temperature (ēC), wind barbs & Geopotential Height).
1pm Tomorrow -


1pm Thursday -


1pm Friday -


1pm Saturday (moved out of view well off the coast) -
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

Top
#1420738 - 04/04/2017 21:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 982
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
N O matter your thoughts on the topic , the cool southerlies I am finding a breath of fresh air. Loving it.

Top
#1420739 - 04/04/2017 21:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Anything below -20 degrees Celsius for 500mb temps over Victoria is cold for this time of year. Snow is possible if these uppers occur and much better if -25 or below occurs.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1420744 - 04/04/2017 23:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 178
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Thx Ken and Seabreeze, nice explanation and graphs. Still workin on that WindyTV, now I understand where to find the upper levels, but where do you look for moisture content?
There's lots to the weather formula, that's for sure. Thx DD
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

Top
#1420752 - 05/04/2017 07:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4328
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov61.8,YTD981.2(1043.4)

Top
#1420758 - 05/04/2017 08:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: DDstorm]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Thx Ken and Seabreeze, nice explanation and graphs. Still workin on that WindyTV, now I understand where to find the upper levels, but where do you look for moisture content?
There's lots to the weather formula, that's for sure. Thx DD

You can find moisture from a variety of charts.
Preciptable Water: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...xpos=0&ypos=593
700-400mb Relative Humidity: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...xpos=0&ypos=689
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1420763 - 05/04/2017 10:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
BTW for anyone interested, the next EC upgrade is currently planned to go operational 20th June (but may change).
This is approx the same time as the next GFS upgrade (which was set back to June from memory).

Some of the highlights (no resolution changes in this upgrade):
* Revamped QC'ing of dropsonde wind data in TC's using its existing 4D Var system (continually ingests obs over 2 x 12hr periods each day).
* More satellite sounding humidity data from more channels.
* Improved QC'ing of radiosonde and GPS obs data.
* Increased supercooled water content at colder temps in convection.
* Better QC'ing of infrared obs data of hydrogen cyanide from wildfires.

Trial results so far indicate improved skill out to 5 days over the SH and NH.

But from my experience over the years, I find that the majority of upgrades to models don't make a huge noticeable difference in day to day forecasting unless it involves a major revamp of its physics and obs assimilation scheme. Pre-operational test data available through certain sources from later this month.

Top
#1420778 - 05/04/2017 14:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Struth Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/12/2010
Posts: 48
Loc: Goonellabah NSW
Hi,
Looking for a little bit of assistance by those that know much more then me :-). We own a Norco distribution to two townships in Northern NSW. When the levee broke in Lismore we were cut off from being able to reach the towns for two days. There has been steady and persistent rain in the region and it is set to continue into tomorrow. Understandably, we are starting to field questions from customers wondering and fearing if the levee could go again and debating whether to purchase up big. We don't want them to do this unnecessarily because many are small businesses and this costs but at the same time no-one wants to run out of milk again.

They are asking because we alerted them to the potential of serious flooding last Wed and tried to stock accordingly, though both towns still ran out of milk. I really don't have any actual expertise and it was because I was reading posts from those that did have know-how that I took seriously the potential and informed accordingly.

I have looked over BOM and a few other weather sites and as far as I can tell there is no real threat of this occurring but I really don't understand what I am reading. So could someone please clarify if possible:
1) What amount of rain would have to fall in a set time period for this to really be a concern:
2.) If I have interpreted correctly and it is unlikely that the levee will go again, is there any way in laymans terms to explain it??

TIA - very much appreciated to anyone who takes the time the first read this and then respond :-).


Edited by Struth (05/04/2017 14:37)

Top
#1420809 - 05/04/2017 18:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
14.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. No rain since 9am.

Originally Posted By: Struth
Hi,
Looking for a little bit of assistance by those that know much more then me :-). We own a Norco distribution to two townships in Northern NSW. When the levee broke in Lismore we were cut off from being able to reach the towns for two days. There has been steady and persistent rain in the region and it is set to continue into tomorrow. Understandably, we are starting to field questions from customers wondering and fearing if the levee could go again and debating whether to purchase up big. We don't want them to do this unnecessarily because many are small businesses and this costs but at the same time no-one wants to run out of milk again.

They are asking because we alerted them to the potential of serious flooding last Wed and tried to stock accordingly, though both towns still ran out of milk. I really don't have any actual expertise and it was because I was reading posts from those that did have know-how that I took seriously the potential and informed accordingly.

I have looked over BOM and a few other weather sites and as far as I can tell there is no real threat of this occurring but I really don't understand what I am reading. So could someone please clarify if possible:
1) What amount of rain would have to fall in a set time period for this to really be a concern:
2.) If I have interpreted correctly and it is unlikely that the levee will go again, is there any way in laymans terms to explain it??

TIA - very much appreciated to anyone who takes the time the first read this and then respond :-).
Just a few showery days ahead, fairly normal weather for this time of year. No chance of major flooding reoccurring and the levee being overtopped. The catchments are saturated, however with the predicted rainfall any river rises should be small and remain below minor flood level.
The Bureau do all the calculations, taking into account how much will fall and river catchment saturation, and will issue flood watches when necessary ahead of potential rain events.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

Top
#1420837 - 06/04/2017 05:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
This has always been a problem going back as far as I can remember to the sixties of rumours of a weather system that caused major flooding regenerating or turning back(especially a tropical system) causing panick. Also the amount of You Tube videos supposedly of TC Debbie that are that of past cyclones. Why do people do it?

Top
#1420841 - 06/04/2017 07:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4328
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 3.6mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov61.8,YTD981.2(1043.4)

Top
#1420844 - 06/04/2017 07:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Nice subtropical jet aloft SEQ giving airlines a bit of saving on fuel ATM - MAS A330 steaming SE to NZ at >570kt.
_________________________
Science is the only answer

Top
Page 46 of 129 < 1 2 ... 44 45 46 47 48 ... 128 129 >


Who's Online
7 registered (Surly Bond, Markus, aussiestormfreak, BrightonBreeze, Raindammit, 2 invisible), 288 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Adele, David Simpson., HannahJayne, krambo, krambo22, Pancake, weather noob
Forum Stats
29421 Members
32 Forums
23730 Topics
1469277 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image