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#1430223 - 09/08/2017 07:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1778
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
According to Mega's map we could get anomalies up to 12 degrees above the average just west of Brisbane? 22 (Aug average max) + 12 = 34? Jees that could get Aug 09 a run for its money.


As long as we get a La Nina in similar strength a year later like 09, it wouldn't be so bad!

Looking at the Average August Temperatures in 1972 prior to the strong 73/74 la nina it was also 1-2 degrees above average for SE QLD.


Well spotted hopefully history repeats itself.

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#1430224 - 09/08/2017 07:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
According to Mega's map we could get anomalies up to 12 degrees above the average just west of Brisbane? 22 (Aug average max) + 12 = 34? Jees that could get Aug 09 a run for its money.


As long as we get a La Nina in similar strength a year later like 09, it wouldn't be so bad!

Looking at the Average August Temperatures in 1972 prior to the strong 73/74 la nina it was also 1-2 degrees above average for SE QLD.


The difference being, the upcoming heat features max temps far above average (and deep into decile 9 territory) for a prolonged period, not just 1 to 2 degrees.
OCF's currently even suggesting up to 34C for places like Gatton by mid next week.

This comes on top of the seemingly endless unseasonably warm daytimes we've been having so far this winter.

And every single year since 2001 has featured warmer than normal winters overall here with the only exceptions being 2007 and 2011.

These days, we often have to get a really big La Nina to make any sizeable dent in that kind of warmth... not just any old La Nina.

In other news, 10th frost of the year so far here this morning (average is 14).



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#1430235 - 09/08/2017 10:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1236
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Very nice sunset Gleno great photo.

Had a couple of flashes and rumbles late yesterday 17:30- 18:00. as far as rain we received 1.5mm.


Thanks Colin, yes good to see a bit of storm activity the other day though rain was brief

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#1430236 - 09/08/2017 10:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: retired weather man]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1236
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Beautiful photo gleno.

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.6mm.


Thanks RWM

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#1430237 - 09/08/2017 10:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1236
Loc: Australia
Had some American tourists speak to me the other day, and they are gobsmacked at our winters, how warm it is. There from the northern part of the states. I guess someone from Miami or the Southern part of Florida could relate to our winters, although i'm not sure if Florida gets into the high 20's in there coldest months?

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#1430238 - 09/08/2017 11:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
Hope you told them that this warmth is unseasonal lol

Southern Florida can often get into the mid 20's during winter but the difference is, Florida also often gets colder continental airmasses (colder than ours) diving down from the NW when there's a cold outbreak.

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#1430259 - 09/08/2017 14:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3683
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Miami's mean January max is about 24 - this takes the form of a lot of days around 26-28 with the occasional cold outbreak. Most years they'd have at least one sub-15 day, and can go sub-10 in the strongest cold outbreaks. It has snowed there once, in 1977.

Northern Florida is significantly colder in winter with average highs only in the mid-upper teens, and can get a lot colder: when I visited in January 2008, there was one day with strong northerly winds and noon temperatures near 0. (With humidity below 20%, there was also a Red Flag warning (US terminology for a fire weather warning), which is a bit of a culture shock for those more used to Australian fire weather).

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#1430277 - 09/08/2017 18:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1778
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Pretty amazing temps forecast for the next 7 days.

Brisbane max: 26/29/29/27/27/29/30
Brisbane min: 8/10/12/11/11/13/14

August average max for Brisbane is 22, average min is 10.

And that's just to the end of the forecast period. For Ipswich three of those days are over 30 with 33 next Wednesday (and 34 at Gatton). EC has Brisbane reaching 32 next Thursday and Friday. I can see temps pushing mid-30s further west if the seabreeze doesn't kick in too early or push too far inland.

We've had extended spells of warm days this winter but this is just insane.


Edited by Nature's Fury (09/08/2017 18:04)

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#1430285 - 09/08/2017 20:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rsav Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 47
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Hope you told them that this warmth is unseasonal lol

Southern Florida can often get into the mid 20's during winter but the difference is, Florida also often gets colder continental airmasses (colder than ours) diving down from the NW when there's a cold outbreak.

It was probably something like this that contributed to the space shuttle Challenger disaster.

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#1430286 - 09/08/2017 20:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Rsav Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 47
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Miami's mean January max is about 24 - this takes the form of a lot of days around 26-28 with the occasional cold outbreak. Most years they'd have at least one sub-15 day, and can go sub-10 in the strongest cold outbreaks. It has snowed there once, in 1977.

Incredible. That's like Hervey Bay getting snow!

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#1430290 - 09/08/2017 22:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 691
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I was born and raised in central Florida near Tampa. Your analysis of FL winter weather is spot on. It really depends on the snow pack in the northern and central states and the jet stream. If the jet takes a big dip in the eastern states, it can get very cold. This happened quite a bit in the 70's and early 80's. Many orange groves were lost at that time. It is also interesting to note that the summer storm season seemed to be quite active during this time period, especially on Florida's west coast with the SE wind colliding with the west coast see breeze. Classic summer pattern!
_________________________
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#1430291 - 09/08/2017 22:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Rsav]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
Originally Posted By: Rsav
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Hope you told them that this warmth is unseasonal lol

Southern Florida can often get into the mid 20's during winter but the difference is, Florida also often gets colder continental airmasses (colder than ours) diving down from the NW when there's a cold outbreak.

It was probably something like this that contributed to the space shuttle Challenger disaster.


It did indeed - the O-ring on one of the solid rocket boosters eventually failed due to the excessively cold conditions leading up to the launch, and the rest is history.

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#1430292 - 09/08/2017 22:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
I was born and raised in central Florida near Tampa. Your analysis of FL winter weather is spot on. It really depends on the snow pack in the northern and central states and the jet stream. If the jet takes a big dip in the eastern states, it can get very cold. This happened quite a bit in the 70's and early 80's. Many orange groves were lost at that time. It is also interesting to note that the summer storm season seemed to be quite active during this time period, especially on Florida's west coast with the SE wind colliding with the west coast see breeze. Classic summer pattern!

It's also interesting to watch the cloud associated with the seabreeze fronts from the east and west colliding, commonly around the Lake Okeechobee area on satellite imagery during the summer months.

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#1430298 - 09/08/2017 23:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
AnnerleyX1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2013
Posts: 50
The next week on OCF is looking ridiculous. 7 days of temperatures 5-10 degrees above average, topping out with 2, possibly 3 30+ degree days in a row. It's August 2009 all over again...

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#1430302 - 10/08/2017 07:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2244
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Pretty cool start to this morning here with temp dipping to 7.5 with an app.temp of 4.4, it really did feel like that here.

A few pages back (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1430298/84) my thoughts with the current weather pattern was that towards the end of August, from the 25th or thereabouts, we could probably see highs of 29 and 30. Looking at the latest forecast and BoM are going for 29 and 30 within the next 7 days as AnnerleyX1 has also pointed out. This is crazy. I think 2009 we had the big dust storms too?
_________________________
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#1430303 - 10/08/2017 08:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4264
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth Thu min 5.8C, grass min 3.1C - coldest for the month.

To date the month locally is 0.3C below average - max is average, but min is 0.6C below. But judging by the forecast for the next week we will be then in a positive anomaly.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep0.0(33)YTD 697.8(841.0)

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#1430305 - 10/08/2017 08:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1236
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Pretty cool start to this morning here with temp dipping to 7.5 with an app.temp of 4.4, it really did feel like that here.

A few pages back (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1430298/84) my thoughts with the current weather pattern was that towards the end of August, from the 25th or thereabouts, we could probably see highs of 29 and 30. Looking at the latest forecast and BoM are going for 29 and 30 within the next 7 days as AnnerleyX1 has also pointed out. This is crazy. I think 2009 we had the big dust storms too?



I was just about to ask you guys if Brisbane or the Gold Coast area has ever had a major dust storm? I was in Sydney when the dust storm hit there back in 2009 and I couldn't describe the eerie feeling travelling to work.I think the storm hit in the early hours of the morning, so had of it hit say at lunch time, the photos would of been amazing seeing a roll of dust coming in from the west. I know its a bit off topic.

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#1430306 - 10/08/2017 08:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
Yep gleno, both Brisbane and Sydney were blanketed by the dust storm.

The dust also spread across a huge portion of eastern and northern Australia in general (as well as depositing dust on ski fields in New Zealand) but outside of NSW and southern QLD, visibility was generally nowhere near as bad as Brisbane and Sydney.


Edited by Ken Kato (10/08/2017 08:39)
Edit Reason: typos

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#1430312 - 10/08/2017 09:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 153
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
I remember waking up that morning, sitting up in bed and looking out the window to an orange thick haze that I couldn't see though - called the boss and told them I won't be going to work in that lol.

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#1430322 - 10/08/2017 11:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6275
Loc: Central Qld.
Was 2009 a wet year for Brisbane?
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