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#1432300 - 31/08/2017 12:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Cool neutral for SEQ in summer:

Since 1980 I make these years as cool neutral:
83/84, 84/85, 85/86, 95/96, 96/97, 00/01, 01/02, 05/06, 08/09, 11/12, 12/13, 13/14, 16/17.

Classifying these years in SEQ on BOM summer decile rainfall maps by eyeball, I think


Below Avarege: 7 - 83/84, 84/85, 96/97, 01/02, 05/06, 13/14, 16/17
Average: 3 - 85/86, 00/01, 08/09
Above average: 3 - 95/96, 11/12, 12/13

It seems to me that a cool neutral summer in SEQ might be more likely to be dry than wet.

In contrast for Spring rainfall during cool neutral years does seem to be more often above average:

Below average: 1 - 12
Average: 4 - 85, 96, 00,11,13
Above Average: 6 - 83,84,95,11,05,08

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#1432301 - 31/08/2017 12:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Apart from the Bureau's site, you can also view what rainfall patterns were like historically during different seasons depending on what the SOI was doing:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/rainfallprobability/index.php

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#1432302 - 31/08/2017 13:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
I posted this a couple of weeks ago."I have been looking at the Long Paddock site and how it uses the SOI phases for rainfall outlooks, especially for this thread. With the current SOI position described as volatile by the Bureau, I wonder how it will pan out. For the August to October period, The forecast appears very UNspectacular for the Southern parts of SE inland QLD which surprised me. How will it turn out? Well, Mike, it makes me wonder how it ever rains anywhere during summer in SEQLD & NE NSW especially the inland parts.


Edited by Hopefull (31/08/2017 13:08)

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#1432303 - 31/08/2017 13:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
For what it's worth, here's some rainfall anomaly suggestions generated by several models then calibrated to past forecasts vs reality.

Even though the green areas for later in spring and summer look nice, you can see that it's only a slight majority of models currently going for that so it's close to borderline probabilities.
Basically, anything that only has pale colours or isn't coloured = could go either way.

Whatever you do, don't take the exact positioning of the wet and dry areas too literally... if a location's close to the edge of an area, the uncertainty is very high.

1st map = rainfall anomalies averaged across Sep.
2nd map = same as above except averaged across spring.
3rd map = same as above except averaged across summer.







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#1432304 - 31/08/2017 13:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks, Ken a bit to digest. The incredible variation even over small distances makes it hard to work out.

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#1432307 - 31/08/2017 14:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Was
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Apart from the Bureau's site, you can also view what rainfall patterns were like historically during different seasons depending on what the SOI was doing:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/rainfallprobability/index.php


Seems to paint a different picture to BOM's analysis on rainfall in el nino and La nina years. In particular a stronger impact on east coastal Australia, and stronger impact in summer.

Haven't looked into SOI as much as other ENSO aspects, but from what I gather SOI is a significantly better predictor of rainfall than say nino 3.4. However SOI is much harder to predict so that predicting rainfall by trying to predict nino 3.4 may be as or more usefull as predicting rainfall by trying to predict SOI.

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#1432374 - 01/09/2017 10:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 328
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
BOM's rainfall analysis for September to November.

Issued 31 August, next issue is 14 September 2017.



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/?cid=001tw80#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0

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#1432401 - 01/09/2017 13:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 123
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Severe monsoonal flooding in south Asia at the moment. In previous events when a La Nina has been projected and south Asia gets bad monsoonal rains we often see flooding rains in spring/summer (e.g. terrible floods in Pakistan in 2010 before our own flood events in 2011).


I was thinking the same thing. Parts of America also struggled with flooding around the same time - https://water.usgs.gov/floods/events/2011/

Anyway, fingers crossed for some exciting seasons.

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#1432428 - 01/09/2017 17:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
That is encouraging Dipole. Looking at the cool Pacific waters I can see this one factor that could cause a wetter than normal spring. I hope it pans out. It would be a nice change, especially for the farmers.
www.windy.com shows monster Hurricane Irma going just north of the Caribbean Islands and into the Florida Straits in about 9 days time. Still a long, long way out, but this would be catastrophic as waters are very warm and deep. There is also very little sheer expected throughout its journey.
I think this site goes by the European Model? GSF has Irma catching a ride on the trough pushing off the east coast of the USA and swinging north towards the Northeast USA (New York/Boston area).
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1432430 - 01/09/2017 17:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
You can select between EC and GFS in windytv in the lower right. It should automatically default to EC when you first load it up if you don't do anything.

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#1432446 - 01/09/2017 21:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Cheers Ken.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1432447 - 01/09/2017 21:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Still on track for max temps to get close to, or exceed 30C in many locations away from the coastal strip by late weekend/early next week.

Unsurprisingly, daytime max temps this winter were warmest on record when averaged across QLD.

Even though overnight/early morning min temps in our region became a lot colder later this winter, the warmer than normal June and July min temps still managed to keep min temps warmer than normal overall.

And for our region, the crazy daytime warmth was more than enough to offset the cold min temps to keep the mean temps for this winter warmer than normal.

It was also drier than normal across large sections of Australia although more recent rains in some southern parts reduced this dryness somewhat.

Some "highlights" copied and pasted from the Bureau's QLD summary for this winter:
* Warmest mean daytime temperatures on record for Queensland; 2.23 C above the long-term average (just above the previous recrord from 2009)
* Queensland had its second-warmest winter on record in terms of mean temperature, 1.66 C above the average
* Most stations in southern Queensland had their highest winter mean daily maximum temperature on record or in several decades
* Palmerville and Seventeen Seventy had their highest winter temperature on record
* Overnight temperatures were more than a degree above average for Queensland as a whole
* Coastal locations, including Seventeen Seventy and Double Island Point, reported their highest winter mean daily minimum temperature on record while Gladstone and Lady Elliott Island had their highest winter mean daily minimum temperature in several decades
* Many locations had their highest winter mean temperature on record or in several decades

2nd map = MAX temp deciles map for this winter
(the mean deciles are here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/inde...3month&area=nat)





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#1432461 - 01/09/2017 22:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
If it wasn't for the US providing some intriguing weather to watch these past few months I'd be a lot more frustrated over our weather than I am currently. I've kinda just come to accept that powerful frontal systems die once they reach SW Australia then suddenly bomb again once they've passed into the Tasman Sea, usually leaving a big high pressure cell in its wake over the bight. It's all been very predictable and uninteresting weather in our part of the world, and in my opinion, has been, for quite some time, regardless of the fluke that was TC Debbie.

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#1432501 - 02/09/2017 13:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
If it wasn't for the US providing some intriguing weather to watch these past few months I'd be a lot more frustrated over our weather than I am currently. I've kinda just come to accept that powerful frontal systems die once they reach SW Australia then suddenly bomb again once they've passed into the Tasman Sea, usually leaving a big high pressure cell in its wake over the bight. It's all been very predictable and uninteresting weather in our part of the world, and in my opinion, has been, for quite some time, regardless of the fluke that was TC Debbie.


Have you been watching the major flooding in the Indian subcontinent? 2/3rds of Bangladesh is underwater, Pakistan and India are being swamped. It's up there with Harvey.

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#1432502 - 02/09/2017 13:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2928
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
See what the next few weeks have got to offer, looking somewhat more interesting. The days have been very nice has a good feel to the sky.

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#1432515 - 02/09/2017 16:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
If it wasn't for the US providing some intriguing weather to watch these past few months I'd be a lot more frustrated over our weather than I am currently. I've kinda just come to accept that powerful frontal systems die once they reach SW Australia then suddenly bomb again once they've passed into the Tasman Sea, usually leaving a big high pressure cell in its wake over the bight. It's all been very predictable and uninteresting weather in our part of the world, and in my opinion, has been, for quite some time, regardless of the fluke that was TC Debbie.


Have you been watching the major flooding in the Indian subcontinent? 2/3rds of Bangladesh is underwater, Pakistan and India are being swamped. It's up there with Harvey.


Yeah, just not as much media coverage on it unfortunately, totally overshadowed by what's been going on in the US.

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#1432547 - 02/09/2017 20:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Mega, that always seems to be the case. This trend should continue as Irma seems to move enough westward underneath the Atlantic Ridge to impact somewhere along the east coast of the USA. Still a long way out however....
Both GFS and the European Model now have Irma making impact along the east coast. GFS near Wash D.C and the European somewhere in the Carolinas. It is interesting to watch the trends, that's for sure!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1432550 - 02/09/2017 20:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Have posted a couple of maps re Irma here:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1432548#Post1432548

Closer to home, far more boring as per usual with just the chance of some showers and thunderstorms inland later tomorrow and becoming more hit and miss by Monday - EC's suggestion for 6-day rainfall totals below:



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#1432551 - 02/09/2017 20:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
What would happen if we had a Hurricane Harvey type event here in south east Queensland? How would Wivenhoe and Somerset cope with over a metre of rain falling in 48 to 72 hours?

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#1432579 - 02/09/2017 22:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I think the answer to that would be, No!
Depending on water levels at Somerset, those sorts of inflows in Somerset in particular with the age of that concrete wall & rapid rise in water level could be devastating IMO.

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