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#1427792 - 11/07/2017 08:03 NSW / ACT - Possible future events
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I have set up this thread for discussion of possible events that cannot yet be accurately forecast but which are starting to appear in the models. The sort of things that could go there would include indications that appear in the models about 7-10 days into the future, before they become threadworthy - cold fronts, heat, snow, rain events, ECLs, etc. Also what might happen based upon indicators like ENSO, Annular Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.

We'll see how it goes.

= = = = = = = = =

I'll kick this off with a possible strong cold change that is appearing in both Access and GFS for Saturday July 18. The blue line penetrates well into Northern NSW and 850 temperatures over Sydney and the Central Tablelands are around -2. In addition, there's enough moisture around to support a decent amount of precipitation on the tablelands, which at these temperatures could include snow on the Central tablelands.

It's early days yet, it could all fall apart but we'll see in due course.

Between now and then it looks like we'll be getting a 'mini heatwave' this Friday 14th followed by an injection of cooler air on the 15th.


Edited by Steve777 (11/07/2017 08:04)

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#1427801 - 11/07/2017 09:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I like this idea Steve smile

I think next week is looking quite interesting - certainly GFS and Access believe there will be plenty of cold air about up this way. We just need precip then BUT that has been the issue for months now. EC has quite fresh 850 temps over us late next week as well.

I really think the chances are better that we will see some PROPER winter weather out here next week. There is already a LOT of cold air about, nothing should flush it out before those changes come next week. Getting a little hopeful smile

As I said though PRECIP - that is the bit that worries me. Will need to be under the correct cloud at times grin

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#1427811 - 11/07/2017 12:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah Dave, precip (or lack of) for these events is problematic for sure. We have had some pretty decent cold but just no accompanying moisture.

GFS is showing a cold one from the afternoon of Tuesday 18th with 850's of -3 spreading up in the CT's and about 5mm in total for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. It's a southerly airstream so precip would certainly favour the Porters Retreat area more than anywhere. The thing that concerns me is that the -30 @ 500mb cold pool clears out to sea fairly quickly which means the air stabilise quite rapidly.(ie. no precip) I will be watching very closely for the 500mb cold pool to disconnect from the coldest 850mb temps. If the current setup holds, this could be an event, but I am banking that the 500mb will go out to sea in later models and then the 850mb temps will warm up. Hopefully I'm wrong but I've seen this happen many times.
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#1427815 - 11/07/2017 13:14 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
You old snow hound!!! smile

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#1427853 - 12/07/2017 01:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Hmm the latest GFS run is looking crap for Tuesday cool change. Moisture is gone and cold pool doesn't line up.

But this weekend's change still looking OK.
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2017-18 storm total= 5
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#1427855 - 12/07/2017 07:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Im in Lithgow on Wednesday.

I see Meteye is forecasting snow for Tuesday just west of Lithgow....please weather gods line this up 😂😂😂
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#1427859 - 12/07/2017 09:15 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Meteye shows snow for the Central Tablelands on Saturday 15th from late morning into the early afternoon for what looks like areas above about 1100 metres West of the Divide, so the Yetholme area West of Lithgow, Canabolis near Orange and the area West of Jenolan and South of Oberon (e.g Shooters Hill). It probably won't be much - the models show little or no precipitation for the area at that time.

At this stage, Meteye is showing a similar story for the afternoon of Tuesday* 18th. However, the models seem to have backed off on moisture and the cold, especially Access. Access does show another change at the end of next week, while the second week of GFS shows the high shifting SE and plonking itself down over Victoria again.

Both days have extensive snow (although not particularly heavy) for the Snowy Mountains.


* I got my days mixed up in my opening past for this thread.

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#1427861 - 12/07/2017 09:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes Precip will be the issue as it has been all this year for sure.

The resorts need this extra kick along to consolidate the season for the next few weeks.

Dawgggg - yep Mt Lambie to Meadow Flat/Yetholme a good chance for you if anything happens.

Watch out though, they close the highway quickly if it looks like icing.

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#1427898 - 12/07/2017 20:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Access looks to be back on board for Tuesday into early Wednesday, with the blue line touching Qld, 850 temps of 0 to -2 over the Central Tablelands and some precipitation. EC gives some support, while GFS doesn't look that crash hot.

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#1427900 - 12/07/2017 21:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yes it looks quite good especially on EC. Very decent change at this stage.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1427908 - 12/07/2017 23:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
7am Thursday 20th on 00z GFS is off the rails with -5 degrees at 850mb over the CT's, -14 at 700 and accompanying upper cold pool. Certainly something to watch. I really think a proper cold snap will actually occur mid next week. GFS is on board like the other two models, albeit a day later but it's a good sign of something brewing.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1427923 - 13/07/2017 09:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Indeed lads, I think we might be in for several weeks of much more fun cold changes out here. Each of the coming colder pulses looking better than recent times.

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#1427924 - 13/07/2017 09:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Sure looks good DaveM!! About time too.

Okay 18z GFS this morning is not as impressive but more realistic with a classic SW change and plenty of moisture. Then Thursday morning looks crazily cold the for NT's with -5 at 850 but not much moisture. What I personally really like about it is that it's a cut off scenario where there is warmer air to the south meaning the cold can just stay and get colder, rather than sinking back to the south.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1427954 - 13/07/2017 17:29 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Models definately coming onboard with this cold change.

Looks timely with my little trip to Lithgow. Come on baby. Keep it coming!
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#1427957 - 13/07/2017 18:19 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Like legit, on Wednesday on Meteye, the possible snowfall is only down the road...





Edited by Dawgggg (13/07/2017 18:27)
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#1427960 - 13/07/2017 19:06 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Good about meteye, meteye usually doesn't come onboard unless it's a solid ride. I find that meteye only forecasts settlings and not snowfalls.

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#1427964 - 13/07/2017 20:19 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
You guys realise MetEye (or ADFD) is not model data, it's put in by a human.
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#1427969 - 13/07/2017 21:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Probably should start thinking about creating a thread for this upcoming event, looking likely, wont say its set in concrete just yet, maybe wet cement!! grin
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#1427970 - 13/07/2017 21:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah that is true but I don't use Meteye anyway. I prefer to look at the models and make my own judgment.

06z GFS is still looking excellent. It's a bit delayed with the change moving through mid-morning and then plenty of snow potential all day for anywhere above 900m with possibly 5-10cm in some areas exposed to the south and west.

The model is showing -3/-11 for 850mb/700mb basically all day and Wed evening. Then Thursday morning, -5 at 850mb with less moisture and warming slightly to -4 and then -3 in the afternoon.

So given the current model runs, it would actually be possible to see snow any time from Wednesday mid morning until Thursday evening.

I'd say it's almossst set in concrete Eddy. There was once or twice when a potential cold snap vanished at 72hrs but that would be unlikely for this I reckon.

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Edited by Wave Rider (13/07/2017 21:53)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1427971 - 13/07/2017 22:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Yes very tempting, just not sure how the BTs are going to fair?
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Rainfall
MTD 15.9mm
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
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