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#1427972 - 13/07/2017 22:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: EddyG]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Yes very tempting, just not sure how the BTs are going to fair?


I reckon this change is too W/SWly for the Barringtons. It's possible that there will be snow and be easily cold enough but nothing amazing- at this stage.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427974 - 13/07/2017 22:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23536
Loc: Townsville
Anyone ever seen *heavy snow* forecast by meteye on the CTs?

What is the threshold for *heavy snow*?
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2015/16 Storms
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#1427975 - 13/07/2017 22:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23536
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
You guys realise MetEye (or ADFD) is not model data, it's put in by a human.


Had no idea!

I assumed it was model based, but its pretty wicked if its human input.


Edited by Dawgggg (13/07/2017 22:28)
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#1427976 - 13/07/2017 22:28 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4260
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider

I'm seriously contemplating a snow chase on Wednesday.


Yes very tempting, just not sure how the BTs are going to fair?


I reckon this change is too W/SWly for the Barringtons. It's possible that there will be snow and be easily cold enough but nothing amazing- at this stage.


Forecast is for possible snow showers on Wednesday & Thursday
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#1427977 - 13/07/2017 22:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Dawgggg]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Anyone ever seen *heavy snow* forecast by meteye on the CTs?

What is the threshold for *heavy snow*?



Generally anything over 10cm/3hours. I have never seen meteye forecast it, even though it should have been many a times.

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#1428014 - 14/07/2017 18:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Don't forget to include Non Events
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#1428021 - 15/07/2017 03:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Stoxxo Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/04/2014
Posts: 17
Loc: Central Coast
Originally Posted By: Knot
Don't forget to include Non Events

Not totally sure i understand your view point, sure the models get it wrong sometimes but its a weather forum and looking into the models will always be a part of this forum.

Not having a go, just not entirely sure about the constant negativity, we all have a common interest though smile

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#1428024 - 15/07/2017 07:47 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Could always change things to Weather Model Zone Weather Simulation Zone or something. If I was using models to bet on the horses and I never backed a winner I would probably go back to a form guide. It's the over blowing of these things that annoys me. As if the weather is some computer game or something. A model snobbery. A model aristocracy. I will have my ten cents worth and continue to be a blue singlet weather guy. But I suspect there will be less and less room for that around here. I'm cool with that.
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#1428030 - 15/07/2017 09:52 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Mate, we're just using this thread to speculate about possible future events, like the title says. I never actually take these things seriously until a couple days out anyway. It's just entertaining to watch the models and how they change and then learn from it. I like computer generated and human models.. grin

Originally Posted By: Stoxxo

Not having a go, just not entirely sure about the constant negativity,


Yeah I agree.


Edited by Wave Rider (15/07/2017 09:55)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428032 - 15/07/2017 10:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
I think I might actually stop the model talk for a while for Knot's sake and post my observations elsewhere where it's a bit more appreciated. smile
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428047 - 15/07/2017 10:58 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@WR . Now come on mate. I never singled you out for special attention. And I am not against models per se. I am against hyping models. There is a difference. And as for negativity. I have never been one for this 'all lets get along jive'. There has been no real front half way thru calendar winter in my locale. And I am damn well @issed bout that. If you see my comments about that fact as negative so be it.

Now regarding forecasting models. Have they been on the money this winter. No they haven't. All that supercomputing has been wrong. So I figure a good old pencil and a bit of paper and a cursory look at some weather stats was as good an indicator of how this winter would pan out. And so far its been how I predicted for the Sydney region/ coastal and the alps poor snow depth. Pen and paper 1. Models 0
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#1428048 - 15/07/2017 11:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Unfortunately that's the way the models have been all winter, where they have gone for a good event only to be downgraded, so hence the over-hyping.

And I wasn't trying to single you out to be rude, I just know that this model talk annoys you in particular. So I will refrain from any discussion of long range models unless it is 2 or 3 days away, because you are right and do have a point. As I said, I do it from an entertainment point of view, I don't neccessarily have to share that here. But yes I will stop the over-hyping because I am guilty for it and this winter it had made me look silly.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1428049 - 15/07/2017 11:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@WR You don't have to duck away from posting about model prognostications to avoid getting up my nose. A bit of to and fro about stuff aint so bad. Partic when there is nothing in the way of some decent weather events to get all worked up about.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1428051 - 15/07/2017 12:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4434
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Post away WR the more annoying you are the better entertainment it is.lol
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SEP rain 0.0 mm

2016 Rainfall-1241.9mm
2015 Rainfall-1568.2mm
2014 Rainfall-1109.1mm


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#1428068 - 15/07/2017 17:17 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3430
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I started this thread because I found a similar thread in the Victorian forum interesting. Most people like to speculate on what's coming next, not just in weather. So model talk will feature here if this thread keeps going. Others may like to attempt long-range forecasting, make assessments based on indices, what wildlife are doing, whatever. I recall that during periods of extended heat or rain earlier this year, people were very interested in talking about records that might be set or when it might end.

As always, anything said about weather that extends beyond 7 days into the future has to be taking with lots of grains of salt, as we all know.

Some of us would prefer to keep to what's happening now and in the next couple of days, others want to look further ahead, most want to do both at different times (or at the same time). There's plenty of weather to go round.

==============

Anyway, as it turned out, today's front was a non-event, even the Snowies just got a light dusting of snow. The change due Tuesday evening looks stronger. On the surface chart, it looks to be digging up air from the Deep South, but, for whatever reason, the air that arrives in Sydney and nearby regions doesn't look particularly cold. In any case moisture is lacking North of about 35 deg South.

So what comes next? My 2 cents' worth (maybe an accurate valuation) for this part of the State is for warmer than it has been, with weak cool changes a couple of times a week, based upon:

1. My understanding of what the models show.

2. This: Sydney 10-15 day forecast. I think this is often a bit cool in Winter. I add a degree for OH.

3. Also this: the warm signal from NAEFS: NAEFS July 23-30. As it has for the whole year, the Tasman looks like a warm bath, but the warmth now covers most of the continent.

We shall see.

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#1428069 - 15/07/2017 17:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5135
Loc: Dural
I like that post Steve.
It would be good if we can just keep this thread to what it was intended for, it would make it enjoyable.
So what, if some of us are enthusiastic about future weather events, even if they don't pan out as models predict?

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#1428071 - 15/07/2017 17:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
At the end of the day I get enjoyment out of reading the charts and models, because I find the anticipation of a possible event fun even if it doesn't occur. And if so I work out what may be tell tale signs of a weather event dying for next time.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1428086 - 15/07/2017 19:47 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4260
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Wish this forum had a like button. You summed it up well Steve777 especially this line you quoted!!


Originally Posted By: Steve777

As always, anything said about weather that extends beyond 7 days into the future has to be taking with lots of grains of salt, as we all know.



Anyway still 6 weeks left of winter, here's hoping for an event or two!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1428088 - 15/07/2017 20:04 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Eddyg, any significant weather, snowy or stormy happens usually the month leading TO and OUT of Winter. Theres two types of Winters.

ECL Ridden with usually the entire season full of Rain or Snow, or the one we are currently experiencing. The Rain and Snow conditions usually sort themselves out in August and September.

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#1428101 - 15/07/2017 23:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
Eddyg, any significant weather, snowy or stormy happens usually the month leading TO and OUT of Winter. Theres two types of Winters.

ECL Ridden with usually the entire season full of Rain or Snow, or the one we are currently experiencing. The Rain and Snow conditions usually sort themselves out in August and September.

Wait so any significant snow events only happen in May and September. That would be a very silly thing to say, because that isn't the reality. Most snow events occur in July and August. Thunderstorms don't really occur much in the winter, because there isn't as much instability to cause it in the winter. Thunderstorms are mainly a summer thing.
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