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#1428480 - 19/07/2017 22:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 810
Loc: Cammeray
I think the September record (nearly beaten the day I watched the mountain biking at the Sydney Olympics) is a pretty strong one. There's just not that much heat inland to get it above 35C IMO.

Aside from the January number I think the March record is also very strong. I can't remember it getting anywhere near 40C in March

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#1428527 - 20/07/2017 17:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 673
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Looks like the potential for some reasonable rain over the SE inland of NSW around month end. Hopefully signals a moistening trend, despite BoM's outlook.

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#1428539 - 20/07/2017 19:04 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
With warmer weather being forecast it could be looking gloomy for the snow - but with the AAO looking like it does below then we could well see some bigger southern ocean storms coming through over the coming weeks:



Fingers crossed for an awesome end to the season, and perhaps even a stronger front bringing some snow up to N NSW too smile


This is generally a pretty good driver for cold fronts. If we do get negative AAO/SAM we will have some good solid cold fronts. Hopefully everything will fall into place for August.
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#1428543 - 20/07/2017 19:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Actually, the patterns look rather odd over the next couple of weeks. From Sunday, the highs are well to the North, like in text books, but the cold air is not breaking through, rather, it's keeping to the South - latitudinal bands. The resulting Westerlies might be OK for snow at high levels (say over 1600m).


Edited by Steve777 (20/07/2017 19:22)
Edit Reason: Clarify

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#1428549 - 20/07/2017 20:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
davidm Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Now this looks tasty in the long range GFS!

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#1428556 - 20/07/2017 21:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Hey that one will actually come off! Look what the date says- AUGUST!! grin
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1428559 - 20/07/2017 22:07 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 254
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Looks like the radar is showing something near Oberon. Would probably be snow if there were any precip there!

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#1428560 - 20/07/2017 22:08 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
No problem with moisture there!!
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#1428562 - 20/07/2017 23:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Sidney, reports of snow falling at Yetholme about 1200m ASL so yes no doubt any precip over Oberon would've also been snow.

Steve, having warm westerlies with highs to the north is way better for cold fronts than highs too far south. I personally think it's a good sign.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1428566 - 21/07/2017 07:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Hey that one will actually come off! Look what the date says- AUGUST!! grin


We all know long range GFS is incredibly accurate, and never proposes insane scenarios only to back off gradually wink
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#1428574 - 21/07/2017 11:28 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I know I know hahaha. Just being hopeful and optimistic. smile
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2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1428576 - 21/07/2017 12:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Jealous of NZ fronts. Hope this Sam business slings one up soon.
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#1428579 - 21/07/2017 12:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Jealous of NZ fronts. Hope this Sam business slings one up soon.


Lucky bastards!!

I think lack of moisture has been the biggest problem for fronts. There are a few now that have been cold enough for snow on the Central Tablelands but no moisture.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1428580 - 21/07/2017 12:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Play it again Sam lol
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#1428622 - 22/07/2017 00:15 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
We're going to get quite a decent warm spell soon enough. GFS has been signalling at rather warm 850 temps at the end of the runs the last couple of days now. I'm banking on high 20's for Sydney some time in the next few weeks.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1428628 - 22/07/2017 07:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Jimi]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 839
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Jimi
I think the September record (nearly beaten the day I watched the mountain biking at the Sydney Olympics) is a pretty strong one. There's just not that much heat inland to get it above 35C IMO.

Aside from the January number I think the March record is also very strong. I can't remember it getting anywhere near 40C in March


The November record is a fairly strong one as well, occurring right in an El Nino period, with the March record also falling later that same summer period.
There have been 40C days in western suburbs in March in recent times, including 1998 and 2002, but not close in Sydney OH.
By contrast, I'd say the October record is a fairly weak one, considering 39-40C days have occurred in the 1st week of November, but just haven't crossed into late October.
The February record is the weakest though, as we saw earlier this year with the 2nd highest temp ever recorded in the Sydney Basin, and earlier again in 2004 with a 16 day heatwave, but neither event could penetrate OH.


Edited by DerekHV (22/07/2017 07:50)

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#1428646 - 22/07/2017 11:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 810
Loc: Cammeray
Agree that November is probably strong too but we almost beat it two years ago. Just a few tenths off

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#1428737 - 23/07/2017 22:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Saturday 29th has been looking pretty warm across NSW for the last few days on GFS with 925mb temps up to 20 degrees in the far west. Looking like possible 25-26 for Sydney but seabreezy on the coast so record could be spared.

But then a cold front after that but pretty lousy temp wise.


Edited by Wave Rider (23/07/2017 22:23)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1428815 - 25/07/2017 10:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3021
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Both Access and GFS are trying hard to change the current pattern around the 1st August. As usual this far out take with a big pinch of salt.
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#1428818 - 25/07/2017 10:59 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Surely we will get a PROPER snowy cold change out here at least once in August. Maybe September instead grin

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