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#1430181 - 08/08/2017 16:57 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's the 15 day forecast for Sydney from Weather.com.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/ASXX0112

Seems to be consistent with the BOM forecast for the coming week and the models. A run of 10 days of 20+ coming up, peaking at 26 tomorrow week, then a reversion to close to average. I generally find this forecast a bit cool (in relation to OH anyway) and the latter part always tends close to normal.

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#1430185 - 08/08/2017 17:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Sydney and up this way getting to nearly 20 in a WSW to West airflow in early August gives a hint of what's coming. This predicted heat will be coming off an already warm base. Rather than a burst of heat following a run of 14, 15 or 16 days.
It is a tall order to crack 30 next week in August at Obs Hill. Only occured twice .1995 of course. And 1954. And only in last week of August. For it to occur 10 or so days earlier would be a real screamer. Despite the stacked odds I think it is do able given the heat in northern Australia.
I don't think Richmond has cracked 30 any earlier than the 22 with impressive 32.8. But what is weird about that recorded temp is that Obs Hill records only a 16.8 on the same day. Couldn't possibly be twice as hot at Richmond surely. What do others Zonies think of this?
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#1430188 - 08/08/2017 17:39 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
The Richmond 32.8 reading from 1953
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#1430201 - 08/08/2017 19:14 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Knot
Couldn't possibly be twice as hot at Richmond surely. What do others Zonies think of this?

I think it's typo when digitising old data.

Sydney OH and Sydney Airport (max that day 15.4) were both in the middle if a run of cool to average maxima. In Richmond, the previous day had a max of 17.4, max temps over the previous week were 14.5 to 19.7 and data for August 23 and 24 is missing.

What would clinch it for me would be maxima for the 22nd for another inland station for Sydney, the Hunter or even the Tablelands. I did a quick check and couldn't' find any. The maximum in Dubbo on 22/8/53 was 12.8 in a run of mostly low to mid teens. Dubbo might have been affected by W-SW change that didn't't reach Richmond until mid afternoon, plus a cloud band after a cold morning (4.4) while Richmond was hot, but that would be a stretch. I note in passing that the following night (min on 23rd) was relatively warm, being 10 degrees at both locations.

If the Sydney coastal stations were affected by a seabreeze on August 22, it would probably have still reached the 20s or at least the high teens. The fact that the Airport was a bit cooler than OH suggests a Southerly wind that day. If it was a Southerly displacing a hot air mass, I would expect it to have been warmer.

So evidence is lacking online, but what is available suggests that it cannot have been that hot in Richmond on that day.


Edited by Steve777 (08/08/2017 19:17)
Edit Reason: Typo

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#1430203 - 08/08/2017 19:39 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I sent the following query to the BOM via the 'feedback' link on the BOM home page:

Quote:
Hottest August Day at Richmond RAAF (old site 67033)

I suspect that maximum of 32.8 for 22/8/1953, as recorded online, is incorrect. Maybe it was a typo when digitising old data.

Sydney OH and Sydney Airport (max that day 16.8 and 15.4 respectively) were both in the middle of a run of cool to average maxima. In Richmond, the previous day had a max of 17.4, max temps over the previous week were 14.5 to 19.7. Data for August 23 and 24 is missing.

What would clinch it for me would be maxima for the 22nd for another inland station for Sydney, the Hunter or even the Tablelands. I did a quick check and couldn't' find any. The maximum in Dubbo on 22/8/53 was 12.8 in a run of mostly low to mid teens.

It might be worth checking out.

Regards - Steve


REF2017-220-12.


Edited by Steve777 (08/08/2017 19:46)
Edit Reason: Add Ref

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#1430204 - 08/08/2017 19:39 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Good stuff Steve, let us know when/if you get a response.

Looks like a weird summer set up next week. Seriously weird, with NW winds and NE seabreezes right along the coast as it's summer but just cooler.


Edited by Wave Rider (08/08/2017 19:44)
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#1430206 - 08/08/2017 19:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Yes great stuff Steve. Geez if it is a typo than how many other typos in the online data.
1954 temp at Richmond is similar to Obs Hill on the 24th.
Maybe the person doing the reading on that day was on the sauce lol
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#1430207 - 08/08/2017 19:59 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thanks WR, I will.

If I were to guess, the maximum that day was 61.0 F, or maybe 61.1, incorrectly entered to a form by a data entry temp decades later as 91.0 (or 91.1) and converted by software to 32.8. It then slipped through whatever checking process was in place and there you are.


Edited by Steve777 (08/08/2017 20:02)
Edit Reason: Clarify

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#1430220 - 08/08/2017 22:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Some seriously wicked heat on its way somewhere. GFS is plotting 22C at 925mb right over Sydney so low 30's next Wednesday if this holds.


Edited by Wave Rider (08/08/2017 22:42)
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#1430225 - 09/08/2017 08:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 673
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
I noticed the warmth forecast too. For mid August this will be record breaking if it happens. Unfortunately we have returned to the dry pattern seen over July.


Edited by Rob G (09/08/2017 08:31)

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#1430229 - 09/08/2017 09:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I already had the Richmond 32.8 on my suspect list but it doesn't seem to have been flagged in the main database. Will follow up.

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#1430239 - 09/08/2017 11:08 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 839
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Just looked at the old Richmond RAAF weather station, it is only 400 metres away from the current station.
Stats:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=67033

I'd say the old Richmond record is an anomaly as well, while the current one is 31.3C from 1995. (same as OH)
Notably the Jan 14 1939 record is missing there, as this is still the hottest temp ever recorded in the Sydney Basin.
The current Richmond RAFF station got to 47.0C in Feb this year.

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#1430240 - 09/08/2017 11:18 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 839
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Sydney and up this way getting to nearly 20 in a WSW to West airflow in early August gives a hint of what's coming. This predicted heat will be coming off an already warm base. Rather than a burst of heat following a run of 14, 15 or 16 days.
It is a tall order to crack 30 next week in August at Obs Hill. Only occured twice .1995 of course. And 1954. And only in last week of August. For it to occur 10 or so days earlier would be a real screamer. Despite the stacked odds I think it is do able given the heat in northern Australia.
I don't think Richmond has cracked 30 any earlier than the 22 with impressive 32.8. But what is weird about that recorded temp is that Obs Hill records only a 16.8 on the same day. Couldn't possibly be twice as hot at Richmond surely. What do others Zonies think of this?


I think OH cracked 30 twice in 1995, if my memory serves me correctly, so that is 3 times overall.

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#1430243 - 09/08/2017 11:44 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Response from BOM regarding query on Richmond max, 22/8/1953:

Quote:
In reply please quote: H88L214859

Dear Steve,

Thanks for letting us know.

One of our staff members also saw the discussion on this, and has already alerted the relevant section. The observation indeed looks wrong and will be flagged as "Suspect."

Regards,
Climate Monitoring and Prediction

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#1430244 - 09/08/2017 12:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 810
Loc: Cammeray
Nice turnaround. I also remember being posted a BOM report in a booklet when I asked them about the Jan 1991 Sydney storm as a teenager. For free. For an organisation that is bound to be hamstrung by govt bureaucracy they do alright in my view.

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#1430246 - 09/08/2017 12:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@Derek. Think you find it was only the once in Aug 95 at Obs. It nearly made it to 30 on the 31st but not quite at 29.8. Or so the data online says. But who knows whether a lot of it is wrong after this Richmond 53 error. I hope the bureau still has paper backups of all this digital entries. Coz if not then stuff will just disappear at the click of a button. A lot of secrecy at the bureau I reckon. I don't get why. It's not like it has any national security role.
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#1430257 - 09/08/2017 14:02 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: DerekHV]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Just looked at the old Richmond RAAF weather station, it is only 400 metres away from the current station.
Stats:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=67033

I'd say the old Richmond record is an anomaly as well, while the current one is 31.3C from 1995. (same as OH)
Notably the Jan 14 1939 record is missing there, as this is still the hottest temp ever recorded in the Sydney Basin.
The current Richmond RAFF station got to 47.0C in Feb this year.


There's some sites in NSW (only NSW, I think) for which the extreme monthly values have been digitised but the daily data hasn't - these get picked up on the Bureau climate averages pages (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_067033_All.shtml) but it looks like Weatherzone only pulls from the daily data.

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#1430264 - 09/08/2017 16:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Off topic, but that system over Western Australia at the moment is huge.
Imagine that over the south east states!

http://satview.bom.gov.au/

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#1430265 - 09/08/2017 16:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Homer
Off topic, but that system over Western Australia at the moment is huge.
Imagine that over the south east states!

http://satview.bom.gov.au/


Not entirely off topic, but yeah you got love that front dragging all that heat down for us in the coming days!!

Brilliant for us heat lovers grin
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#1430266 - 09/08/2017 16:45 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: EddyG]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Homer
Off topic, but that system over Western Australia at the moment is huge.
Imagine that over the south east states!

http://satview.bom.gov.au/


Not entirely off topic, but yeah you got love that front dragging all that heat down for us in the coming days!!

Brilliant for us heat lovers grin


Cheeky bugger. smile

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