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#1430683 - 14/08/2017 21:24 East African Weather
T.rex Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
I have been contacted by a friend in Kenya to ask whether there are any reliable long range forecasts for the area.

Currently, Kenyans are experiencing a severe drought, which has caused serious hardship to the general population, as well as some devastating inter-tribal and racial tensions, due very largely to the lack of pasture. Game conservation is also being affected and widespread poaching is occurring, probably encouraged by "the fat cats" whose only aim is to make money in the short term.

If anyone could suggest a reliable source for a long range forecast, this would be very gratefully received.

Regards, Mike
_________________________
Mike,

On the Edge of the Range.

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#1430723 - 15/08/2017 10:18 Re: East African Weather [Re: T.rex]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3683
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Most of the major international centres (ECMWF, US CPC, IRI etc.) will have global models which cover the area, although I'm not sure what skill they have.

As your contact will know, but readers here may not, Kenya and neighbouring parts of east Africa have two wet seasons a year - one in March-May and the other in October-November - so the forecasts which are important are the September-November and October-December ones. (The last three wet seasons - i.e. early and late 2016, and early 2017 - have all been below par). Some of the groups I looked at haven't issued forecasts for that period yet, although the IRI one for October-December looks at least vaguely promising.

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#1430754 - 15/08/2017 13:22 Re: East African Weather [Re: T.rex]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3009
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: T.rex
I have been contacted by a friend in Kenya to ask whether there are any reliable long range forecasts for the area.

Currently, Kenyans are experiencing a severe drought, which has caused serious hardship to the general population, as well as some devastating inter-tribal and racial tensions, due very largely to the lack of pasture. Game conservation is also being affected and widespread poaching is occurring, probably encouraged by "the fat cats" whose only aim is to make money in the short term.

If anyone could suggest a reliable source for a long range forecast, this would be very gratefully received.

Regards, Mike


I sure the next wet season is better, although I believe its the minor one and the March to May is stronger.

Dry here too, what does that have to do with Kenya? - my Kikuyu grass is dying.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1430834 - 15/08/2017 21:42 Re: East African Weather [Re: T.rex]
T.rex Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
Hi Blair and Michael,

Thanks for your replies. I am very familiar with life in East Africa, having lived there myself for 18 years, before coming here to Oz in 1984.

You are right, the Nov Dec rains are the "Short Rains", and the "Long Rains" are due at the end of March for 6 weeks or so. Another friend who lives in Nairobi, mentioned in a recent letter, that they have had less than 225mm of rain this year, or only 21% of last year's amount for the same period.

If anyone else can add to the suggestions for additional forecasts, I would be very grateful.

I would also say that the friend who originally asked the question has also expressed his thanks.
_________________________
Mike,

On the Edge of the Range.

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