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#1431377 - 21/08/2017 17:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Awful cold and still afternoon, I was absolutely freezing despite there being no wind. It felt like 11 or 12 degrees but it's around 15 actually so I must be coming down with a fever. Had the heater on full warmth all the way back from Wollongong.


No, you're ok, it's cold brrrrrrrr

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#1431381 - 21/08/2017 18:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 838
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Yesterday morning's -4.5 at Griffith was the coldest on record at the current site for August, the old record being -3.3. It's not the coldest on record, that being -5.9 on 17/7/77. At the nearby CSIRO site (records 1915-89), the July and August records are -5.4 and -4.3 respectively.

So we have a new low temperature record for August, one of a number of low temperature records this Winter, at a site with records back to 1970, so its a significant one. "Warmist alarmists" don't say there'll be no more cold weather, no more cold records. We do however think that the fact that 'hot' records have been outnumbering 'cold' records by about 3-5 to 1 in recent decades is significant.

That -4.5 doesn't look particularly remarkable for the site. The BOM might check it, being a degree below the old monthly record, I don't know, they will follow their normal checking process. However, unless the equipment is malfunctioning, I do not believe that it would be 'removed', 'homogenised' or whatever. That would be extraordinarily unprofessional on the part of BOM staff. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.


Well the BOM left the Singleton record from July, -4.2C, so they might leave that one alone as well. (admittedly Singleton only has 14 years of records at it's current site).
Still Singo has broken both it's highest (47.2C on Feb 11) and lowest records in one year, the high one the least likely to be broken again.
And looking at Griffith, the low temp is not particularly noteworthy for that location as you already noted.

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#1431391 - 21/08/2017 21:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Since when isn't a 55-year-old record not noteworthy? Have we all been so brainwashed by the warmist agenda?

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#1431397 - 21/08/2017 22:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3585
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Hello Kino. In my post earlier this morning there were a few points you raised.

Originally Posted By: Kino

Goulburn - there's one word for you.

And clearly I meant August, but nitpick if you must.

And it's a 55 year old record so that makes it 1962.


1. Nitpicking. I prefer to think of it as clarification. I knew what you meant, it wasn't a 'gotcha'.

2. Length of record. The record online goes back to 1970, 47 years: Griffith averages. Apparently there are more years of records that aren't available online. Great. I stand corrected. 47 years is a significant record, 55 more so.

3. I do not believe that the BOM fudges records, nor that scientists and scientific organisations around the world are engaged in some vast conspiracy. I find the arguments regarding Goulburn unconvincing, I find Jo Nova and Jennifer Mahihasy unpersuasive. It is a challenge for those who believe in the primacy of free markets and their version of enterprise and individual freedom. Climate science has identified problems that don't appear to be amenable to 'free market' solutions. Maybe it would be better to adapt rather than make concessions to 'socialism'. Maybe there are free market solutions that won't change society too much in ways conservatives don't like. That's the challenge. The science stands whatever people value or believe.


Edited by Steve777 (21/08/2017 22:20)
Edit Reason: Last sentence

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#1431399 - 21/08/2017 22:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6433
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Since when isn't a 55-year-old record not noteworthy? Have we all been so brainwashed by the warmist agenda?


I think Steve means in the context of the topography and in relation to the extreme low minimum of -5.9C and -5.4C at the CSIRO site, indicating that it's possible to get even lower in August, because it's happened in July.

It's like saying that the February record of 42.6 in Sydney is not noteworthy because there have been much higher maxes in January. So if there was a max of 42, it would be noteworthy for February sure, but not in terms of the highest maximum temps ever recorded.


Edited by Wave Rider (21/08/2017 22:47)
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2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1431401 - 21/08/2017 22:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5276
Loc: Dural
Wow Kino, you've certainly joined this forum running at full pace.

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#1431402 - 21/08/2017 23:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
Wow Kino, you've certainly joined this forum running at full pace.


Life's short grin

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#1431403 - 21/08/2017 23:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5276
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Homer
Wow Kino, you've certainly joined this forum running at full pace.


Life's short grin


And kind.

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#1431404 - 21/08/2017 23:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6433
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Just remember that Steve is a well respected member of this forum.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1431416 - 22/08/2017 09:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Just remember that Steve is a well respected member of this forum.


Respect goes both ways, doesn't apply because of how many posts one has, and I don't believe I've been disrespectful in any way to him.

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#1431419 - 22/08/2017 09:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3585
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you WR.

I try to contribute and to respect others' contributions, including those I disagree with. The discussion here has been respectful in my opinion.

------

Beautiful morning here. The models seem to be showing an end to the dry Westerly pattern and more normal temperatures and more regular rain coming up. August at OH looks set to finish August close to round numbers: 10 to 20, about a degree above average (1981-2010) for maxima and slightly above for minima. Parramatta looks set to finish 7 - 20 or slightly below - average for minima and about 1 above for maxima.


Edited by Steve777 (22/08/2017 09:31)

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#1431422 - 22/08/2017 09:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Thank you WR.

I try to contribute and to respect others' contributions, including those I disagree with. The discussion here has been respectful in my opinion.

------

Beautiful morning here. The models seem to be showing an end to the dry Westerly pattern and more normal temperatures and more regular rain coming up. August at OH looks set to finish August close to round numbers: 10 to 20, about a degree above average (1981-2010) for maxima and slightly above for minima. Parramatta looks set to finish 7 - 20 or slightly below - average for minima and about 1 above for maxima.


Running well above for minima here (currently +1.1c) but that'll take a hit this week as light winds and clear skies allow temps to plummet (3.4 & 3.3 last 2 days, 3 below average). Maxima running slightly above average thanks to that 1 week of mid-20's, that may level out with more average type weather around. Still no significant rain in sight for here.


Edited by Kino (22/08/2017 09:38)
Edit Reason: my autocorrect is being frustratingly annoying lately

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#1431423 - 22/08/2017 09:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Good stuff Steve

Cracking morning here too, I will be making the most of this dry weather today by spraying for weeds before the return of coastal showers from Thursday onwards.

Should easily reach our max today!! Fell 5c short of reaching yesterdays max.
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#1431426 - 22/08/2017 09:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6433
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Thank you WR.

I try to contribute and to respect others' contributions, including those I disagree with. The discussion here has been respectful in my opinion.

------

Beautiful morning here. The models seem to be showing an end to the dry Westerly pattern and more normal temperatures and more regular rain coming up. August at OH looks set to finish August close to round numbers: 10 to 20, about a degree above average (1981-2010) for maxima and slightly above for minima. Parramatta looks set to finish 7 - 20 or slightly below - average for minima and about 1 above for maxima.


Running well above for minima here (currently +1.1c) but that'll take a hit this week as light winds and clear skies allow temps to plummet (3.4 & 3.3 last 2 days, 3 below average). Maxima running slightly above average thanks to that 1 week of mid-20's, that may level out with more average type weather around. Still no significant rain in sight for here.


Yeah we should get some coolish nights coming up. It's unusual that there was such prolonged warmth in July and early August (like the mid-20's you mention) and yet we're in late August and not really any sign of spring.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1431427 - 22/08/2017 09:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Or rain frown but we are in our driest time of year climatologically. And I think those mega-warm SST's aren't helping us, dragging all convection over them. Hopefully they pay us back in Spring/Summer with some deep thermal trough activity / ECL's.

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#1431431 - 22/08/2017 10:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The sun is glorious today, the air though still quite nippy. Only 4 more weeks until it's back in our hemisphere yay!

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#1431443 - 22/08/2017 12:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
BIG signs of Spring out here already, Blossoms on trees becoming quite obvious, Willow trees are sprouting green leaves all over the joint, lots of budding going on.

I think that winter is pretty much done out here. Plenty of cool mornings as usual for the next few months but I don't see decent snow anywhere on the horizon (for here).

The sun now has plenty of sting when out in it.

You Coasties will be noticing warmer temps than here even quicker I suspect.

A lot of us looking for rain.

Steve as always cool smile

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#1431445 - 22/08/2017 12:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3014
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Smoke enveloping my workplace at Shellharbour from a controlled burn at Blackbutt Forest.

Normally they do not do many burns on places outside the escarpment, this one is probably a wise one as homes back onto to the reserve.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1431446 - 22/08/2017 12:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 810
Loc: Cammeray
Originally Posted By: Kino
Or rain frown but we are in our driest time of year climatologically. And I think those mega-warm SST's aren't helping us, dragging all convection over them. Hopefully they pay us back in Spring/Summer with some deep thermal trough activity / ECL's.


SSTs seem to have settled down a bit. For example, the current 17C at the Manly buoy is only in the 20th percentile of warmth from 1992 to 2011 based on the occurrence tables

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#1431448 - 22/08/2017 13:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That's too close to the coast to make any real diff, I'm talking about out where the current is where it's 18-22c according to NCEP.

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