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#1431058 - 18/08/2017 08:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 680
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Mega
Trade winds just keep on blowin':



A lot of the easterly anomalies are mostly to the west of 180 where they supress warm kelvin wave activity, but don't do much directly to cool the nino regions. Westerly anomalies are showing in the east Pacific. Still some area of enhanced trade winds far enough east to be a cooling influence if verified.

CFS is similar but more pessimistic with a wider area of esterly anomalies and a narrower area of enhanced trades. Overall i'd say CFS has westelies dominating. Latest TAO data seems to confirm a weak warm kelvin wave is in progress, so i'd expect warming for the next few weeks if CFS verifies.

Also both CFS and EC show that westerly anomalies are currently dominating much of central and eastern pacific, however TAO charts are showing easterly anomalies. Sometimes the TAO charts can be a bit flaky right at the end, and its possible that they will change to agree more with CFS/EC in the next day or three. Current EC and GFS forecast models suggest westerly anomalies strengthening quite a lot, but only briefly around 48 to 72 hours, however i consider these the least reliable indication of future trade wind activity - but much better within this relatively short time period.


And yet, the Pacific continues to cool...as forecast by most major models now.

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#1431071 - 18/08/2017 09:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Originally Posted By: Kino


And yet, the Pacific continues to cool...as forecast by most major models now.




In danger of getting caught up in a linguistic argument instead of climate argument - I'd suggest that we have seen an abrupt cooling, but that it is so far too short to qualify as 'continues to cool'

Compare the period of early 2016 with a drop rate equivelant to the recent drop, but sustained over a long period with the drops similar to the current drop near Jan 2015, Jul 2014, and Jan 2014.

CFS and JMA forecast a cooling sustained over several months. EC, BOM, GMA forecast an abrupt drop to August or September followed by slow warming.

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#1431076 - 18/08/2017 09:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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On either a linguistic or climatic argument, the Pacific is cooling. Climatically it has cooled 2.5c in 18 months; linguistically it has cooled 0.5c in only 1 month. Either way it is cooling,

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#1431213 - 19/08/2017 00:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
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I would also say it's cooling. But Mike has a point, it did do similar things 2 years ago. I don't think we are going into a massive La Niņa and we are certainly not going into a monster Elnino. The SST anom loop that put up was really interesting in the way it seemed to show the trades kicking in and making the warm water pick up the pace moving west. Also liking the waters pushing through into the Indian ocean

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#1431218 - 19/08/2017 08:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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In 2016 there was so much heat left over from the El Nino that La Nina couldn't form and the effects of the El Nino were felt right through to early 2017. Once all the left over heat has been dissipated, a La Ninalike pattern could form.

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#1431223 - 19/08/2017 11:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kev in Bello]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
Wow, don't they just. Can see why the models think a La Nina is coming on...
Have been watching this one: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellit...fic_930x580.gif

.....


Impressive spill of warm water into the NW WA region of the Indian Ocean. Moisture is already impacting Victoria from this.

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#1431224 - 19/08/2017 11:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Yeah like looks like the Indonesian flow-thru is kicking into gear.

Btw I didn't say we're gong into La Niņa just the pacific is cooling. No chance of El Niņo or even warm neutral imo. Possible cool neutral, next few weeks should see that lock in.

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#1431279 - 20/08/2017 09:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus


Some widespread cooling of the oceans going on.

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#1431300 - 20/08/2017 16:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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The cooling going on right now in Nino regions is crazy!

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#1431317 - 20/08/2017 18:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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.... looking forward to a stormy spring for Victoria!

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#1431356 - 21/08/2017 12:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
adon Offline
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Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
The cooling going on right now in Nino regions is crazy!


Unfortunately so to is the area off the NW Australian coast.

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#1431357 - 21/08/2017 12:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
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Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: adon
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
The cooling going on right now in Nino regions is crazy!


Unfortunately so to is the area off the NW Australian coast.


The contrast between east and west is striking on the anomaly maps!

Will be interesting to see how things turn out if we do get some sort of La Nina combined with those cold SST to our west.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (21/08/2017 12:20)

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#1431387 - 21/08/2017 20:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
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The +IOD will fade off with the MJO but it's during the cooler months when it has its biggest effect by not letting NWcloudbands develop with much strength.

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#1431388 - 21/08/2017 20:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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We probably won't see a fully fledged La Nina but we will probably get a La Ninalike set up. CFS is hinting at a wet signal for spring.

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#1431425 - 22/08/2017 09:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Originally Posted By: adon
The +IOD will fade off with the MJO but it's during the cooler months when it has its biggest effect by not letting NWcloudbands develop with much strength.


Given the extent of these anomalies wouldn't you say it's something more than just the +IOD at play? Also, the IOD index according to BOM is barely positive which is strange.

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#1431428 - 22/08/2017 09:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Seems NOAA been too busy with the solar eclipse, they haven't updated their ENSO stuff since 9 August! BoM tropical outlook out today but I'd wager that it'll be same as last few.

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#1431442 - 22/08/2017 11:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Loc: Buderim
Short term forecast products suggest we should be seeing substantial westerly anomalies through central Pacific (but short lived) However so far TAO is having none of it and shows above average trade winds continuing in the central Pacific.

Impact of the warm Kelvin wave is obvious now with cooling slowed down in the central Pacific, and enough sub surface warming in the central Pacific that heat content is going up despite the surface cooling. There is now sharp cooling in the east as the cool Kelvin pushes further east. I expect the sharp cooling in the east to abruptly switch to warming as the east is more strongly influenced by Kelvin waves, and less strongly by trade winds - opposite for the central Pacific.

CFS 30 day forecast still goes for westerly anomalies to dominate the Pacific for most of the forecast period. If this happens before the warm Kelvin wave clears I think the warming will be quite significant. The CFS 30 day had been quite good for much of the year, but the last week or two it has been going for a return to westerly anomalies of which there has been no sign.


Edited by Mike Hauber (22/08/2017 11:57)

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#1431451 - 22/08/2017 13:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1653
NINO 3.4 has dropped as low as -0.6c according too CDAS but back up too -0.4c at the moment and NOAA backs it up with -0.5c temps showing as of Monday August 21st.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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#1431452 - 22/08/2017 13:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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My guess is about the IOD the bulk of the colder water is south of Sumatra or has been most of this Winter more so around Java and further south and west.. Normally the IOD index is measured off Sumatra and off east African coast off Somalia with the balance of both bodies of water taken into the equation giving us where the IOD is at so its not telling us a full story at the moment.


Edited by _Johnno_ (22/08/2017 13:36)
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#1431453 - 22/08/2017 13:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Bit of an example here

Waters off Sumatra are actually warmer than normal but look at the body of cold south and west of that!

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Now look at the 2nd image of a traditional typical Positive IOD look where the colder than normal sea surface temps are.. This is the area that's measured.. It has acted this way this Winter with the body of cold water further south than usual hence the Pos IOD numbers not coming up as expected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Dipole


Edited by _Johnno_ (22/08/2017 13:45)
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