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#1431543 - 24/08/2017 06:51 SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Still on track for thunderstorms in our region later today (Thursday) as a triple point gets set up in far SE QLD between the NNE to NW winds, SW winds inland, and S'ly winds surging up the coast.
Synoptics involve a front and associated upper trough.

If lucky, I wouldn't be surprised if some places got storms bordering on severe (strong winds, hail).

Fairly stiff steering winds from the WNW this arvo so any convection should move at a reasonable pace, 40-50kt of shear in the 0-6km layer, reasonable instability and we lie near the right exit region of a jet streak.

BUT there's still the complicating factor of the patchy morning cloud/hit and miss showers which have drifted across as expected.
Still, the dynamics look alright enough to me to support storms in our region.

Below is the latest upgraded (but still largely untested and experimental) version of my thunderstorm script for 6am to midnight today - I'd rather test it against more past cases first before I'm willing to pay much attention to it:



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#1431545 - 24/08/2017 07:32 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Moisture would seem to be a concern with a rather westerly dominated set up. Yesterday's forecast for SScoast was for late morning storms I think, and it wouldn't surprise me if this is the result and that after lunch it might be too dry.

But if it dries out in the middle of the day and then the seabreeze pushes moisture back in after a clearance it might be perfect conditions for an isolated storm cell to really get going with little competition and moderate storm conditions to produce a nasty surprise.

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#1431546 - 24/08/2017 07:35 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 612
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Already had thunder down here from a smallish cell from the north west nice to wake up to.

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#1431547 - 24/08/2017 07:44 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Surprisingly good set-up for late August but still some issues as always. We should definitely see some rain but the question is how severe.

Also Stapylton radar is down for a month...

Looking at the models this morning I think the place to be will be GC/NE NSW. Looks like some strong action pushing through on the far SE coast with the southerly and then bombing offshore.


Edited by Nature's Fury (24/08/2017 07:48)

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#1431548 - 24/08/2017 07:45 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Moisture would seem to be a concern with a rather westerly dominated set up. Yesterday's forecast for SScoast was for late morning storms I think, and it wouldn't surprise me if this is the result and that after lunch it might be too dry.

But if it dries out in the middle of the day and then the seabreeze pushes moisture back in after a clearance it might be perfect conditions for an isolated storm cell to really get going with little competition and moderate storm conditions to produce a nasty surprise.


As far as coastal SE QLD goes, especially near the far SE corner, I actually don't see moisture as a problem at all myself - ACCESS-R has more than enough moisture in its forecast soundings across various parts of our region and even at the surface, it's got dewpoints in excess of 15C near the coast as the afternoon NNE seabreeze encroaches onto coastal areas in southern parts.

If anything, I'm still of the thinking that the patchy cloud cover/precip this morning is going to be a bigger factor in whether storms will be widespread or localised later today.

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#1431551 - 24/08/2017 08:01 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
OMG WOW. This could be the most massively hugest start of the most monstrous storm season ever.

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#1431552 - 24/08/2017 08:21 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Watching with interest, any rain is good rain, short sharp shower earlier this morning.

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#1431557 - 24/08/2017 09:16 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1291
Loc: Australia
Some interesting cloud formations this morning on the Gold Coast. Be interesting to see how the day pans out, hopefully a off shore show later tonight.

DSC_0959 [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/94869731@N06/][/url],

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#1431558 - 24/08/2017 09:18 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1044
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Hopefully an on shore show as well
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#1431559 - 24/08/2017 09:18 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 612
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
I get the impression that you spent a big part of your life in tornado alley in the midwest of the states and you're having a dig at us storm enthusiasts on this forum

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#1431560 - 24/08/2017 09:22 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Nice Pic Gleno.

Had a look at the Jet stream at 300mb or 30 000 feet and at 13:00 they are pushing through at 110knots or approx 203 km/h. That would make a nice tail wind if you were flying to the East. 500mb they are 50 knots or 92 km/h. pretty wild stuff up there.

Just as I posted had a crack of thunder from a small cell rolling through. Having to use WZ Layers to track this one.


Edited by Colin Maitland (24/08/2017 09:24)
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#1431563 - 24/08/2017 09:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
No Tweedstorm, I was born and grew up in Lismore. Spent some time in Sydney, Warwick, Burpengary and now Toowoomba. I just do not get the excitement over this type of weather. I am waiting for a good rain event. Just ignore me. I have been put in my place many times and deservedly so.
Cheers

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#1431564 - 24/08/2017 09:32 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Moisture would seem to be a concern with a rather westerly dominated set up. Yesterday's forecast for SScoast was for late morning storms I think, and it wouldn't surprise me if this is the result and that after lunch it might be too dry.

But if it dries out in the middle of the day and then the seabreeze pushes moisture back in after a clearance it might be perfect conditions for an isolated storm cell to really get going with little competition and moderate storm conditions to produce a nasty surprise.


As far as coastal SE QLD goes, especially near the far SE corner, I actually don't see moisture as a problem at all myself - ACCESS-R has more than enough moisture in its forecast soundings across various parts of our region and even at the surface, it's got dewpoints in excess of 15C near the coast as the afternoon NNE seabreeze encroaches onto coastal areas in southern parts.

If anything, I'm still of the thinking that the patchy cloud cover/precip this morning is going to be a bigger factor in whether storms will be widespread or localised later today.


GFS at 850hp has the moisture pushed well out to sea at 4pm anywhere south of Gympie, and very dry by say Ipswich or so. Lower down looks better, as does earlier in the day. A small change either way from what is modelled could make a big difference I think.

Current feel of the sky on SS coast is pretty poor IMO. SS coast does seem to do badly in NW/troughs that are stronger to the south type set ups, compared to other parts of SEQ.

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#1431566 - 24/08/2017 09:46 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 612
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
All good mate we're all different I know we desperately need rain I just love thunderstorm clouds , lightning and the sound of thunder. Hope Toowoomba cops a drenching somehow today.

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#1431567 - 24/08/2017 09:46 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Moisture would seem to be a concern with a rather westerly dominated set up. Yesterday's forecast for SScoast was for late morning storms I think, and it wouldn't surprise me if this is the result and that after lunch it might be too dry.

But if it dries out in the middle of the day and then the seabreeze pushes moisture back in after a clearance it might be perfect conditions for an isolated storm cell to really get going with little competition and moderate storm conditions to produce a nasty surprise.


As far as coastal SE QLD goes, especially near the far SE corner, I actually don't see moisture as a problem at all myself - ACCESS-R has more than enough moisture in its forecast soundings across various parts of our region and even at the surface, it's got dewpoints in excess of 15C near the coast as the afternoon NNE seabreeze encroaches onto coastal areas in southern parts.

If anything, I'm still of the thinking that the patchy cloud cover/precip this morning is going to be a bigger factor in whether storms will be widespread or localised later today.


GFS at 850hp has the moisture pushed well out to sea at 4pm anywhere south of Gympie, and very dry by say Ipswich or so. Lower down looks better, as does earlier in the day. A small change either way from what is modelled could make a big difference I think.

Current feel of the sky on SS coast is pretty poor IMO. SS coast does seem to do badly in NW/troughs that are stronger to the south type set ups, compared to other parts of SEQ.


Below is an example of an ACCESS-R sounding for later today near Brisbane - that moisture near the top of the boundary layer is typically more than enough for storms even though it's drier near the surface. Inverted-V sounding also which is characteristic of gusty winds under any storms.
Soundings for dry inland thunderstorms are an extreme example of this one and occur all the time with surface dewpoints often down in the negatives but with a shallow but very moist layer as high as 600hpa at times.

I'm not a big fan of NW flows re storms either... but there is a seabreeze front with NNE'lies that creeps into southern parts of the SE Coast district later today.

My main concern is still this morning cloud cover and precip... am thinking this is still the biggest factor in determining whether we get widespread storms later today.... or it just remains localised as it has been doing this morning (I've been getting some thunder here):



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#1431568 - 24/08/2017 09:51 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1265
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not sure what Mike is on about - that sounding sure looks conducive to storms IF the forecast temps are achieved. Not a bad sounding for August.

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#1431569 - 24/08/2017 09:54 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4328
Loc: Wynnum
Thunder over Wynnum 0947 - no rain, also to southwest at 0957.


Edited by retired weather man (24/08/2017 09:58)
Edit Reason: addition
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#1431570 - 24/08/2017 09:57 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Thats for 4pm right? GFS shows DP of about 5 at Brisbane at 850hp, compared to maybe 12 from that Access sounding if I'm reading that right. So potential to go either way depending on which model is correct?

Looking at GFS 850 hp streamlines is what prompted my original concern. Lower down and earlier in the day is better.

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#1431571 - 24/08/2017 10:00 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 113
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
Some distant thunder being heard here in Camp Hill right now.
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#1431572 - 24/08/2017 10:02 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly strong - 24/8/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
SteveB93 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/12/2016
Posts: 10
Loc: Wellington Point, Brisbane Bay...
Storm over the CBD at the moment. Some nice flangs and rumbles of thunder.

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