Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#1431672 - 25/08/2017 15:26 Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,

This one has really sprung a quick suprise
On the models and really come out of no
Where.
Models showing a fairly intense cold blast
Coming straight up from Antartica Tomoz
Night into Sunday with some potential nice
Snow for the southern mountains
Eg Baw Baw , mt Wellington samboz 😉
Models now have 528 line up over southern
Vic so we will see what this one can produce??

Enjoy

Top
#1431689 - 25/08/2017 19:35 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks for the thread dooga', looking at the short-term map, big 1032 high way south of the GrtAuBight pushing the low across Vic, seems set to try a repeat act on next Tuesday but doesn't look to get far N of the coast on that occasion.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/msl_36hr_forecast.shtml

Could be some coastal rain W of Melbourne late Sat. then races across the E of Vic and all over by Sat midday'ish..ACCESS says anyway.. with lingering cold air to Monday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

Top
#1431714 - 26/08/2017 09:15 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....as long as the rain stop by 3pm when Petros watches the Saints beat the Tiges again

Top
#1431726 - 26/08/2017 10:32 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Surprised at the lack of discussion regarding this event. Looks like snow could fall to as low as 400 or 500m tomorrow morning as 850mb temps get down to -6.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1431728 - 26/08/2017 10:50 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Agree wave rider👍
Think it's going to be a very cold
Little snap, specially for southern Victoria
And agree on your snow level of
That 4-500m mark mostly Gippsland!

Hopefully see some snow flurries by
The morning up here ❄️❄️

Top
#1431730 - 26/08/2017 10:55 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3426
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This will extend well into NSW. GFS +45hrs (7:00PM Sunday) shows 850 temps of -2 plus moisture over the Central Tablelands West of Sydney. There may be snow of the NSW Central Tablelands Sunday evening although it could well be a case of blink and you miss it.

Top
#1431733 - 26/08/2017 11:23 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Could be touch and go dooga, hope you get something. Your southerly location should definitely benefit you though since you are on the first line of ranges from the Bass Strait. I think you're actually in the best spot- if snow is low enough.


Edited by Wave Rider (26/08/2017 11:24)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1431734 - 26/08/2017 11:31 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah wave, usually a good indicator for
Us is that 528 thickness line and if that
Comes up through or close to Gippsland
Then we usual receive snow flurries at
Our elevation which is over 400m.

For this front it does look like that 528 gets
Up over us.

What's your take on that wave, are u fairly
Confident going off what your looking at
The snow could lower to 400m?

Top
#1431735 - 26/08/2017 11:34 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Steve - yeah if there is enough moisture
Around then I think up around those
Ct's are a real good chance of snow, def
Cold enough with I think one of the models
Showing 532 thickness up into nsw which
I think is snow to 7-800m??

Top
#1431736 - 26/08/2017 11:35 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wave - so 850mb temps at -6, does that
Usually mean it's cold enough for snow to
400m ?

Top
#1431742 - 26/08/2017 12:15 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2245
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Ugly overcast of 12c

Had over average August 62.5mm out of 58.6mm Average.

Top
#1431745 - 26/08/2017 13:04 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3426
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Maybe someone with expert knowledge could reply, but my understanding is that the 850 level is on average at an elevation of around 1500 metres. The lapse rate in humid conditions is about 6 degrees per 1,000 metres.

On that basis, an 850 temp of -6 would translate to about 3 degrees at sea level, almost cold enough for snow (around 1-2 degrees). Snow at 400 metres seems a definite possibility.

An 850 temp of -2 or even zero is sufficient for snow on the NSW Central Tablelands, with -2 translating to about +1 at 1,000 metres. While there is little or no diurnal variation of the 850 temp, equivalent temps at ground level would be daily averages, with a variation of about 3 or 4 either side in moist conditions. At 700 meters, -2 translates to about +3. It just has to be a degree or two colder while precipitation is falling for snow to occur, so maybe snow to 700-800 metres on the Central Tablelands, but this system will pass quickly over that region. The ducks will have to line up.


Edited by Steve777 (26/08/2017 13:05)

Top
#1431749 - 26/08/2017 13:26 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thank u very much for your description
Steve, very good insite😀👍

By the sound of it if the 850mb
Stays around -6 then could be game
On overnight tonight so wise, like
U say above Steve

Top
#1431759 - 26/08/2017 14:51 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Yeah that's a very good description and along the lines of my thinking.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1431762 - 26/08/2017 14:59 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Access r update is in and shows a pretty
Picture for snow tommoz morning
With 528 thickness into Victoria

Top
#1431767 - 26/08/2017 16:08 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
11C @ MtGambier, the cool air is on the way !

13C Max next two days locally.

Could just be enough rain mixed in with this one to give quite a good snowfall, time will tell, but doubt 400m or 500m though.

Haven't seen any forecasts so far that talk lower than 900m.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

Top
#1431770 - 26/08/2017 16:34 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bom updated forecast out and they
Have the snow level down to 700m
For the Gippsland areA?
Maybe they are being a little conservative,
With the 528 line hitting vic I thought it
May have been more 500m ish

Top
#1431772 - 26/08/2017 16:46 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1752
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Fingers crossed for snow on your roof dooga' grin

ACCESS certainly shows your locale as being spot on for snow conditions.

The ingredients are lined up there - temp/moisture - but maybe not all that much better than previous cold fronts whistling thru', I'd like to see it down low though and maybe wander up the road and get the tyres wet!


Edited by samboz (26/08/2017 16:50)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

Top
#1431775 - 26/08/2017 16:53 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 993
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hope so samboz, although like u say 700m
Is a little high for me, might see some wet
Stuff fall? Just gotta hope it's a bit colder
Than forecast and then we might get some?
🤔

Top
#1431798 - 26/08/2017 18:45 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6507
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Listening to all the above, Petros will be rugging up for the MCG game tomoz!!

17C here today for golf in a fresh SSW'ly. Baro 1018 hPa,


Edited by Petros (26/08/2017 18:45)

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >


Who's Online
4 registered (Mike Hauber, Steve777, Mathew, 1 invisible), 280 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
LightningGus, Mikezoom, Ploddy
Forum Stats
29366 Members
32 Forums
23680 Topics
1461883 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image