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#1431672 - 25/08/2017 15:26 Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,

This one has really sprung a quick suprise
On the models and really come out of no
Where.
Models showing a fairly intense cold blast
Coming straight up from Antartica Tomoz
Night into Sunday with some potential nice
Snow for the southern mountains
Eg Baw Baw , mt Wellington samboz 😉
Models now have 528 line up over southern
Vic so we will see what this one can produce??

Enjoy

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#1431689 - 25/08/2017 19:35 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks for the thread dooga', looking at the short-term map, big 1032 high way south of the GrtAuBight pushing the low across Vic, seems set to try a repeat act on next Tuesday but doesn't look to get far N of the coast on that occasion.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/msl_36hr_forecast.shtml

Could be some coastal rain W of Melbourne late Sat. then races across the E of Vic and all over by Sat midday'ish..ACCESS says anyway.. with lingering cold air to Monday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1431714 - 26/08/2017 09:15 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....as long as the rain stop by 3pm when Petros watches the Saints beat the Tiges again

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#1431726 - 26/08/2017 10:32 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Surprised at the lack of discussion regarding this event. Looks like snow could fall to as low as 400 or 500m tomorrow morning as 850mb temps get down to -6.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1431728 - 26/08/2017 10:50 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Agree wave rider👍
Think it's going to be a very cold
Little snap, specially for southern Victoria
And agree on your snow level of
That 4-500m mark mostly Gippsland!

Hopefully see some snow flurries by
The morning up here ❄️❄️

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#1431730 - 26/08/2017 10:55 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This will extend well into NSW. GFS +45hrs (7:00PM Sunday) shows 850 temps of -2 plus moisture over the Central Tablelands West of Sydney. There may be snow of the NSW Central Tablelands Sunday evening although it could well be a case of blink and you miss it.

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#1431733 - 26/08/2017 11:23 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Could be touch and go dooga, hope you get something. Your southerly location should definitely benefit you though since you are on the first line of ranges from the Bass Strait. I think you're actually in the best spot- if snow is low enough.


Edited by Wave Rider (26/08/2017 11:24)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1431734 - 26/08/2017 11:31 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah wave, usually a good indicator for
Us is that 528 thickness line and if that
Comes up through or close to Gippsland
Then we usual receive snow flurries at
Our elevation which is over 400m.

For this front it does look like that 528 gets
Up over us.

What's your take on that wave, are u fairly
Confident going off what your looking at
The snow could lower to 400m?

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#1431735 - 26/08/2017 11:34 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Steve - yeah if there is enough moisture
Around then I think up around those
Ct's are a real good chance of snow, def
Cold enough with I think one of the models
Showing 532 thickness up into nsw which
I think is snow to 7-800m??

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#1431736 - 26/08/2017 11:35 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wave - so 850mb temps at -6, does that
Usually mean it's cold enough for snow to
400m ?

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#1431742 - 26/08/2017 12:15 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2293
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Ugly overcast of 12c

Had over average August 62.5mm out of 58.6mm Average.

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#1431745 - 26/08/2017 13:04 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Maybe someone with expert knowledge could reply, but my understanding is that the 850 level is on average at an elevation of around 1500 metres. The lapse rate in humid conditions is about 6 degrees per 1,000 metres.

On that basis, an 850 temp of -6 would translate to about 3 degrees at sea level, almost cold enough for snow (around 1-2 degrees). Snow at 400 metres seems a definite possibility.

An 850 temp of -2 or even zero is sufficient for snow on the NSW Central Tablelands, with -2 translating to about +1 at 1,000 metres. While there is little or no diurnal variation of the 850 temp, equivalent temps at ground level would be daily averages, with a variation of about 3 or 4 either side in moist conditions. At 700 meters, -2 translates to about +3. It just has to be a degree or two colder while precipitation is falling for snow to occur, so maybe snow to 700-800 metres on the Central Tablelands, but this system will pass quickly over that region. The ducks will have to line up.


Edited by Steve777 (26/08/2017 13:05)

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#1431749 - 26/08/2017 13:26 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thank u very much for your description
Steve, very good insite😀👍

By the sound of it if the 850mb
Stays around -6 then could be game
On overnight tonight so wise, like
U say above Steve

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#1431759 - 26/08/2017 14:51 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah that's a very good description and along the lines of my thinking.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1431762 - 26/08/2017 14:59 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Access r update is in and shows a pretty
Picture for snow tommoz morning
With 528 thickness into Victoria

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#1431767 - 26/08/2017 16:08 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
11C @ MtGambier, the cool air is on the way !

13C Max next two days locally.

Could just be enough rain mixed in with this one to give quite a good snowfall, time will tell, but doubt 400m or 500m though.

Haven't seen any forecasts so far that talk lower than 900m.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1431770 - 26/08/2017 16:34 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bom updated forecast out and they
Have the snow level down to 700m
For the Gippsland areA?
Maybe they are being a little conservative,
With the 528 line hitting vic I thought it
May have been more 500m ish

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#1431772 - 26/08/2017 16:46 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Fingers crossed for snow on your roof dooga' grin

ACCESS certainly shows your locale as being spot on for snow conditions.

The ingredients are lined up there - temp/moisture - but maybe not all that much better than previous cold fronts whistling thru', I'd like to see it down low though and maybe wander up the road and get the tyres wet!


Edited by samboz (26/08/2017 16:50)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1431775 - 26/08/2017 16:53 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hope so samboz, although like u say 700m
Is a little high for me, might see some wet
Stuff fall? Just gotta hope it's a bit colder
Than forecast and then we might get some?
🤔

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#1431798 - 26/08/2017 18:45 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Listening to all the above, Petros will be rugging up for the MCG game tomoz!!

17C here today for golf in a fresh SSW'ly. Baro 1018 hPa,


Edited by Petros (26/08/2017 18:45)

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#1431816 - 27/08/2017 07:12 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6137
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wow the Broady radar isn't great.

A handful of genuine flakes this morning (around 645) as well as squally mizzle and sleety mix.

Emptied 3.3mm from yesterday evening and overnight.

Temp currently at its lowest,1.8c so fingers crossed but can see quite a lot of elevated strato cu, much colder in lower levels relative to say 500hpa maybe?

Anyway windy and wonderfully unpleasant here, might have been a pretty heavy snow shower at Mt Macedon earlier, not sure if Avalon is still around to verify.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1431827 - 27/08/2017 09:16 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1838
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
4.5mm after the front arrived around 0340hrs, some rattling wind for a while with it.

Looking S/W all blue skies with a light breeze, clearing slowly in the high country visible from home, binocs reveal some fresh snow but looks a modest fall this stage.

Hoping it's white @ doogaville grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1431838 - 27/08/2017 09:58 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6137
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Just had a pretty good shower with a fair smattering of graupel. Nice snow shower on the mountain
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1431848 - 27/08/2017 11:26 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6137
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Heavy shower, lots of hail and graupel stacked up on window sills, some snow mixed in at the end. Temp back to 2.7c with another shower in bound (I hope)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1431866 - 27/08/2017 13:03 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1022
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nice ruckle your getting all the action out
Your way👍
Bombed out here samboz, plenty of rain
Then some sleet at 3.5c and then
Right when the temp dropped down
A bit lower the old tassey rain shadow
Kicked in and spoilt the party!!

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#1432008 - 28/08/2017 09:45 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6137
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Since the 7am empty yesterday had another 7.2mm so over 10mm for this event. Showers of hail, graupel, rain and snow continued through yesterday arvo and overnight.


Edit: Just started light rain again


Edited by Ruckle (28/08/2017 09:50)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1432059 - 28/08/2017 18:49 Re: Short sharp cold blast with possible low level snow 26/8-27/8 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6601
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
6mm total here for this event smile

Light frost this morning, cold day (albeit with light breeze and the odd sunny period) - not as cold as the reception the Tiger supporters dished out to us poor old Sainter's after our effort at the MCG yesterday.

Plugging couch at Royal Maffra this arvo, the moisture seems to have penetrated to about 35mm below the surface, dust below that, so far (explains the greening around this area past couple of weeks).

For my 2 bob's, Nth Gippy will be looking good this spring with "normal" rainfall to be received between now and early December.


Edited by Petros (28/08/2017 18:51)

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