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#1433059 - 06/09/2017 20:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2614
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Doesnt that deep blue running west along the equator look great!


It's warming I tell ya, warming!

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#1433079 - 06/09/2017 22:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
Let's hope the Pacific keeps the cooling up, we need a wet summer.

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#1433081 - 06/09/2017 22:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5328
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Doesnt that deep blue running west along the equator look great!


It's warming I tell ya, warming!


Where is the like button!

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#1433087 - 07/09/2017 00:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Thanks S.O

Anyone got the indices for the IOD at the moment? Going by the ssts anomalies maps it is starting to look like a traditional Positive IOD now with cooling off Sumatra as well.


Johnno , as per FSFD's animation shows . The ITF is really starting to cancel out the Austraian centric Region of the eastern portion of the IOD analysis .
Meaning that we will see continued returns to possible NW Infeeds to the SE of Aust by the end of Spring . Currently the NW Exmouth to Wheatbelt us seeing some long awaited trough with NW infeed . And I would suggest a late start but rapid ramp up of convective storms in the NNW of Aust in coming months .
This will back build and eventually include QLD by the start of official summer .

Mike the self quote was posted in Feb . That was the initial breakdown of the NE Pacific " blob " as a slow moving mid lattitude tongue of cooler water eventually migrated across from the NW Pacific . We had Debbie from the resultant Sthn Equatorial trade basin wide burst . California also had late Winter floods .
Since then the Nth Hem has been floating in Neutral territory . And became the triggering for the Sth Hem to start it's slow reversal of what we'lll now call the 6 month La Niņa Pause .

But yeah we are heading to El Nino WTF ....


Edited by S .O. (07/09/2017 00:12)
_________________________
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#1433089 - 07/09/2017 06:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: S .O.]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: S .O.


But yeah we are heading to El Nino WTF ....


You do realise i only said that while the nino 3.4 was rising. Pretty sure I haven't said it since it stopped rising maybe 2 months ago now.

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#1433090 - 07/09/2017 06:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Last few days has seen another westerly wind burst occurring in the far west. Penetrating a lot further east than the last one, but looks to be very short lived and pretty much over.

The Kelvin wave generated by the previous westerly anomalies may now be approaching the west coast of America. It is hard to tell if it is still going as it encounters strong easterly anomalies above it. I can find no evidence for its existence currently, but often these weaker Kelvin waves can pretty much dissapear in the mid Pacific and then reappear in the far east.

Current GFS forecasts are for some significant westerly anomalies in the far east, although TAO is showing the opposite at the moment. If these westerlies do occur, and if the Kelvin wave is still going there could be some quite significant warming in the far east.


Edited by Mike Hauber (07/09/2017 06:40)

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#1433091 - 07/09/2017 06:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: S .O.]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2340
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: S .O.


But yeah we are heading to El Nino WTF ....


To be fair, he has not said that.

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#1433096 - 07/09/2017 07:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Nonsense . Refer to Johnno's list on page 44 as to why !

Meanwhile Unisys tells the story. IOD is a stubborn bugger but that equatorial cooling is probably the most rapid change (warm or cool) I have witnessed in the many years I have watched it.



_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1433100 - 07/09/2017 08:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2614
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
*like*

Interesting to note the BoM have dropped any reference to ENSO in its weekly tropical climate note. Next ENSO outlook is next week.

Locally it looks like we're still being driven by the IOD, and will be interesting to see when the switch over commences.

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#1433104 - 07/09/2017 08:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5328
Loc: Not tellin!
Yep the IOD certainly has us by the short and curlies for the next little while. It why I am more interested in the Indian Ocean for our seasons(at least during the cooler months) and not the Pacific.

As for westerly wind bursts, Mike can you put a image up of the TAO display and show me where these WWBs are?

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#1433106 - 07/09/2017 08:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim


Westerly wind anomalies in the far west. Weak but there.

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#1433112 - 07/09/2017 08:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


...that equatorial cooling is probably the most rapid change (warm or cool) I have witnessed in the many years I have watched it.



Looks about the same speed as early last year. Or early 2015. or mid 2014. Or early 2014.


I think Unisys is a bit funny with its colour scheme changing quite rapidly from yellow for slightly warm to blue for slightly cool which makes the change look more than it is. There never seems to be anything other than the tiniest spot of ocean on unisys that does not look bright yellow or bright blue.

Compare to weatherzone SST which I think is the same or very close raw data, but has a much wider zone of neutral colouring near 0.

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#1433115 - 07/09/2017 09:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 203
Should be a warning...dont get caught up in the formatting of data....

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#1433118 - 07/09/2017 09:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
The Indian Ocean Dipole usually ends when the monsoon kicks in. Perhaps we could be looking at a La Nina Modoki pattern over summer? The weak westerly anomalies could be something to do with the MJO passing through.

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#1433119 - 07/09/2017 09:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5328
Loc: Not tellin!
Mike I see southerly and SSW winds with one buoy showing a minute ssw around right above PNG which I seem to remember you saying this area was irrelevant. Why even bother with such a minuscule reading????

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#1433122 - 07/09/2017 10:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
According to your graph it is sharper. Is that the same graph you used to book in your elnino?
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1433123 - 07/09/2017 10:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


...that equatorial cooling is probably the most rapid change (warm or cool) I have witnessed in the many years I have watched it.




I think Unisys is a bit funny with its colour scheme changing quite rapidly from yellow for slightly warm to blue for slightly cool which makes the change look more than it is. There never seems to be anything other than the tiniest spot of ocean on unisys that does not look bright yellow or bright blue.



I made that comment last year and you didn't back it up. Funny that.

I suspect that you and that model you tend to dote on have been too focused on the kelvin waves and above average trades as the only contributors to cooling and it has caught you out.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1433127 - 07/09/2017 11:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
According to your graph it is sharper. Is that the same graph you used to book in your elnino?


Yes thats exactly the graph I used to book in the el nino.

Fastest drop just recently I can find is 4 weeks from Jul 10 dropping 0.46.

In contrast: May 2 2016 3 week drop of 0.69
15 Dec 2015, 3 week drop of 0.49
23 Jun 2014 4 week drop of 0.49
2 Dec 2013 5 weeks drop of 0.49

So of the four drops I referred to, one was quite a bit faster, two were about the same (a little faster) and only the 2 Dec 2013 drop was slower.

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#1433128 - 07/09/2017 11:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: adon
Mike I see southerly and SSW winds with one buoy showing a minute ssw around right above PNG which I seem to remember you saying this area was irrelevant. Why even bother with such a minuscule reading????


I never said this area is irrelevant. The strength of these westerly anomalies is about the same as the ones that led to the warming earlier in this year and are hardly miniscule. The fact that they look to have only stuck around a few days might mean that there will be noticeable mpact. But I think its worth noting, and we'll see what happens.

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#1433131 - 07/09/2017 11:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Yes thats exactly the graph I used to book in the el nino.



Cheers Mike, I was checking to see if you actually read anyone else's posts properly.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

Meanwhile Unisys tells the story. IOD is a stubborn bugger but that equatorial cooling is probably the most rapid change (warm or cool) I have witnessed in the many years I have watched it.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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