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#1433242 - 08/09/2017 09:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mega
given the strength of the next burst of trade winds?

...

GFS:



The next burst in GFS is mostly two far west to make much difference, but the current easterly burst in GFS is well positioned for significant impact. To the west of 180 is the western warm pool which is pinned to the western pacific by the equatorial trades. Weaken these trades and some of this western warm pool can slip east as a kelvin wave. Strengthen the trade winds and the warm pool just stays there. Further east where the colder subsurface waters are closer to the surface the easterly trades are more able to bring subsurface cool water to the surface.

At the moment the water either side of the equator and in the western warm pool is warmer than average, especially in the subsurface. If the trade winds keep pushing the colder water welling up will gradually push the warm water away and expand the cool area. But until this warm water is pushed far enough away any westerly anomalies are going might have more impact than normal as this warm water tends to push back against this upwelling. Basic physics, but the issue is whether the effect is strong enough to matter, or so weak as to be negligible.

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#1433329 - 09/09/2017 00:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The next burst in GFS is mostly two far west to make much difference, but the current easterly burst in GFS is well positioned for significant impact.


I reckon you're downplaying it tbh, but we'll soon find out.

Also btw:

Actual ECMWF charts haven't been posted but I trust Ben and even Joe Bastardi tweeted out something similar.

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#1433355 - 09/09/2017 09:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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If this does transition to a La Niña, it'll be one for the record books that's for sure, given how late it started.

And it'll prove climate models are useless unless they get rid of the inherent warming bias.

I'm still thinking that deep thermal trough over WA is the transition switch slowly moving west. Perths forecast is warming & easterlies are starting to dominate.

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#1433357 - 09/09/2017 09:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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2007 was a fairly late forming event I think.

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#1433360 - 09/09/2017 09:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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As was 2011 looking at the maps.

But I hope it's not a 2007-like Niña:

Quote:
The 2007–08 and 2008–09 La Niña events were weak to moderate, with relatively minor impacts across Australia. Although the 2007–08 event brought the typical heavy rainfall to most of northern Australia and the eastern tropics, the southern half of the Murray–Darling Basin did not receive the above-average rainfall and cool temperatures typical of past La Niña events.

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#1433361 - 09/09/2017 10:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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#1433362 - 09/09/2017 10:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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In the far west TAO is surprising me by holding and if anything increasing the strength of westerly anomalies in the last couple days. Further east TAO is showing easterly anomalies stronger and further east than last batch, with matching cooling.

Another difficulty with understanding the current situation is that TAO is holding above average temps as far east as about 160W - meaning warm anomalies dominating the area i think matter most for future ENSO development. In contrast satellite shows cool anomalies penetrating as far west as just past the dateline, which is far enough west to be significant in my opinion.

Was trying to find some research that I'm sure I've read in the past explaining that the atmospheric response to ENSO is dominated by the location of water above 28C, but couldn't find it.

Did find an interesting paper on the South Pacific Meridonal Mode, aligning somewhat with what I've been saying about the South Pacific being in La nina mode, and North Pacific in el nino mode, and that the South Pacific matters most late winter early spring, and North in late summer early Autumn. Cooling or warming starts in the subtropics, and atmospheric feedbacks change the strength of the subtropical ridge and transmit these anomalies towards the equator. The South Pacific mode is strongest in spring, has an impact closest to Nino 3 and has generally more impact than North Pacific mode. North pacific mode is strongest in Autumn and impacts more towards nino 4.

Another paper i found discusses the 2016 extreme el nino. The failure of the 20114 el nino left the warm pool extended further east, and allowed recharging of the western warm pool and set up the extreme el nino in the following year. I see some similarities between now and 2014. SSTs for the merdional mode regions look very close, and the trend of warming earlier in the year was interrupted at a fairly similar time. Significant differences are that the equatorial region is pretty much cooler throughout with a weaker western warm pool and significant cool anomalies, whereas in 2014 the cooling only got to -ve temps in a small area for a short time (a week or three). Warming had pretty much resumed at this time in 2014, although it remained weak until later in the year.

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#1433383 - 09/09/2017 13:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
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snowbooby, the Monsoon that has been impacting South-East Asia lately seems to be strongly supporting what the abstract said in the paper you recommended smile .
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#1433391 - 09/09/2017 14:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
2016 extreme el nino. The failure of the 20114 el nino left the warm pool extended further east, and allowed recharging of the western warm pool and set up the extreme el nino in the following year. I see some similarities between now and 2014. SSTs for the merdional mode regions look very close, and the trend of warming earlier in the year was interrupted at a fairly similar time. Significant differences are that the equatorial region is pretty much cooler throughout with a weaker western warm pool and significant cool anomalies, whereas in 2014 the cooling only got to -ve temps in a small area for a short time (a week or three). Warming had pretty much resumed at this time in 2014, although it remained weak until later in the year.


Gobsmacked but not surprised that you're still gunning for an El Niño.

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#1433392 - 09/09/2017 15:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
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I guess it won't matter then if I say who gives a sh't about whose "right"/"wrong."
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#1433400 - 09/09/2017 16:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Originally Posted By: Kino


Gobsmacked but not surprised that you're still gunning for an El Niño.


I mention some similarities and some differences between a year that led to el nino. That is definitely not gunning for an el nino.

Why do you keep attacking me for saying things that I didn't?

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#1433401 - 09/09/2017 16:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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The ocean in both hemispheres being almost entirely covered in excessive warm anomalies is why this flip has come so late. So much heat to disperse .

The big question is how will it translate into our Summer ahead. I have a feeling it may be a better wet for Darwin to the east than Darwin to the west this year. We shall see.
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#1433484 - 10/09/2017 13:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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The big cold patch in the Indian is spreading more west into the central Indian ocean now and slowly weakening around Indonesia and north west of OZ
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#1433485 - 10/09/2017 13:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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#1433486 - 10/09/2017 13:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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I wonder if the current state of the Pacific is driving this?
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#1433487 - 10/09/2017 13:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Hard to believe but if waters warmed up dramtically around Java and near Sumatra everything else meaning southern Indian ocean, central indian ocean, waters off central and southern WA, Great Australian Bight, the Pacific Equatorial, Tasman sea, north of Australia, Coral sea is actually very similar or the same to how it was exactly 12-11 months ago... But the cool waters near Java and Sumatra is what has flipped things around.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/seasurfacetemperature/2016/Sep.pdf

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/seasurfacetemperature/2016/Oct.pdf


Edited by _Johnno_ (10/09/2017 13:19)
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#1433489 - 10/09/2017 13:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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My point is we are so close to a switch "wetter or wet conditions" but yet so far. 12 months ago parts of OZ was under water.


Edited by _Johnno_ (10/09/2017 13:22)
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#1433505 - 10/09/2017 15:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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CFS starting to look like a 97/98 - 98/99 event. That's one heck of a cold pool across the Pacific.

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJVpC6iXUAAZfv_?format=jpg&name=large[/img]

(See if this works)


Edited by Kino (10/09/2017 15:41)

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#1433508 - 10/09/2017 15:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
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Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I think it might be a case of I will believe it when I see it. Three or four years (I forget now) of totally failed spring rain has made me a bit sceptical. Last year all the equator SST's were showing blue, yet we had a very dry spring and early summer.

Even now many places I see as I drive around are quite dry. We were just lucky where I am we got the rain not many others got. But we missed out last year when others were getting it.

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#1433509 - 10/09/2017 15:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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I hope it eventuates.

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