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#1433513 - 10/09/2017 16:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1771
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Kino
CFS starting to look like a 97/98 - 98/99 event. That's one heck of a cold pool across the Pacific.

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJVpC6iXUAAZfv_?format=jpg&name=large[/img]

(See if this works)


Unfortunately on that forecast the SSTs are just average around Australia. Can't see dramatic rains eventuating with the higher SSTs so far east.

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#1433514 - 10/09/2017 16:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2584
Loc: Buderim
We are more likely to get an el nino than a repeat of 98/99 lol.


Now vs same date 1998





Edited by Mike Hauber (10/09/2017 16:18)

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#1433516 - 10/09/2017 16:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
We are more likely to get an el nino than a repeat of 98/99 lol.


Now vs same date 1998





Did you bother to even read my post?

Try posting Sept 97, thats the more appropriate comparison. I did say 97-98 after all.

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#1433517 - 10/09/2017 16:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1542
Loc: Kingaroy
I'm thinking more of a 2007/2008 event if La Nina does form, it's too dry at the moment. The strong monsoon in South Asia could be an indication of a wet summer ahead.

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#1433519 - 10/09/2017 16:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2584
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Try posting Sept 97, thats the more appropriate comparison. I did say 97-98 after all.



ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Go look up Sep 97 yourself.

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#1433520 - 10/09/2017 16:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Actually, when one looks at Sept 98 vs Sept 2017 the similarities are pretty stark - except for around Australia.


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#1433521 - 10/09/2017 16:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sept 2017 (almost to the day....NO El Nino to be seen)


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#1433522 - 10/09/2017 16:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7024
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
#1433521 - I see somewhat neutral (ENSO that is), perhaps with some Ocean-Front Waves along the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.

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#1433525 - 10/09/2017 17:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2584
Loc: Buderim
The current situation is quite similar to the set up in late summer early Autumn preceding el nino development, the main el nino pre-condition being warm water extending from the far west towards the dateline. I also strongly suspect that warm water close to the equator further east is another important el nino pre-condition. Subsurface isn't as warm as it usually would be though. Of course it is not late summer/early Autumn now which is quite important.

The big difference with 98 is the amount of cool water below the surface in 98, which is night and day difference with the current situation.


Edited by Mike Hauber (10/09/2017 17:02)

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#1433526 - 10/09/2017 17:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well let's compare:

Sept 1998



Sept 2017



Edited by Kino (10/09/2017 17:07)

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#1433529 - 10/09/2017 17:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6440
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Cold pool looks a lot stronger in 1998 though?

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#1433530 - 10/09/2017 17:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Cold pool looks a lot stronger in 1998 though?


It sure does but it's clearly not "night and day" as alleged. There's still a substantial cold pool under the Pacific atm.

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#1433533 - 10/09/2017 17:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6440
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mega
Cold pool looks a lot stronger in 1998 though?


It sure does but it's clearly not "night and day" as alleged. There's still a substantial cold pool under the Pacific atm.


Yeah, which I'm not convinced has peaked yet, either.

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#1433537 - 10/09/2017 17:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Yeah, which I'm not convinced has peaked yet, either.


Same. And the assertion that it's El Nino like is absurd IMO. Clearly, there is no chance of a Nino; defin cool neutral and a chance of a decent La Nina next year.

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#1433541 - 10/09/2017 18:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 61
I think the thread needs more Mike Hauber like attention to analysis

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#1433544 - 10/09/2017 18:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17686
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I think the thread needs more Mike Hauber like attention to analysis


So do I, but without his belief he is the only one in it. Everyone else's opinion was dismissed and in Johnno's case, ridiculed. No real surprise then that people have extended the same courtesy.

...and that analysis proved significantly flawed.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1433546 - 10/09/2017 18:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17686
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mega
Cold pool looks a lot stronger in 1998 though?


It sure does but it's clearly not "night and day" as alleged. There's still a substantial cold pool under the Pacific atm.


Yes, pretty much throughout .
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1433547 - 10/09/2017 18:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17686
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mega
Cold pool looks a lot stronger in 1998 though?


It sure does but it's clearly not "night and day" as alleged. There's still a substantial cold pool under the Pacific atm.


Yes, pretty much throughout .


The anomalies map shows it breaking through over a large area of the south pacific. I personally believe this is where the water is coming from that disrupted the warming along the equator Hence why some models struggled so badly..
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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1433549 - 10/09/2017 18:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I think the thread needs more Mike Hauber like attention to analysis


Such as this?

Originally Posted By: MikeHauber
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Go look up Sep 97 yourself.


or
Originally Posted By: MikeHauber
The current situation is quite similar to the set up in late summer early Autumn preceding el nino development


Isn't it winter transitioning into Spring right now? How relevant is summer into autumn to us right now?

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#1433551 - 10/09/2017 18:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The anomalies map shows it breaking through over a large area of the south pacific. I personally believe this is where the water is coming from that disrupted the warming along the equator Hence why some models struggled so badly..


Agree. Clearly there is something at play that has been missed or under forecasted. I will openly admit I struggle to understand the thermocline at the best of time, it's an area we till don't know a lot about.

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