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#1433605 - 11/09/2017 00:40 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4740
GOES-16 imagery via CIRA/RAMMB as the sun rose over FL (1st image below).

SATCON analysis (2nd image below) as at 09z suggests intensity (max wind) decreased again by that time or at least plateau'd off after that temporary increase earlier today:





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#1433608 - 11/09/2017 06:55 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 81
Loc: Bushland Beach
Amazing image Ken. Thanks

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#1433610 - 11/09/2017 07:06 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 993
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
does storm surge seem to be consistently more of an issue over in that part of the world , than say back here?

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#1433612 - 11/09/2017 07:36 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4740
Depends on the area but parts of Florida does have a lot of low lying areas and large inter-tidal zones.

Speaking of storm surge, check out this remarkable footage from downtown Miami!


https://www.facebook.com/SevereWeather2017/videos/1950162268556023/

https://www.facebook.com/SevereWeather2017/videos/1950306685208248/

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#1433614 - 11/09/2017 07:41 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: BIG T]
scott12 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 794
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: BIG T
does storm surge seem to be consistently more of an issue over in that part of the world , than say back here?


Lots of low lying land in Florida,the Keys and the gulf coast as well as the depth of the ocean and size and magnitude of the storm combine to create potential problems from Storm surge..

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/floridas...rmas-waves.html

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#1433648 - 11/09/2017 13:11 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: scott12]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3040
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: scott12

Lots of low lying land in Florida,the Keys and the gulf coast


I was in Florida in 1985 and the highest land point I saw was a large rubbish tip operation.
_________________________
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#1433655 - 11/09/2017 14:37 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4740
Meanwhile, another danger is lurking for Taiwan from around midweek in the form of Talim....



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#1433657 - 11/09/2017 15:00 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 792
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Well, could have been so much worse for Tampa Bay as the core of the storm passed well east of the coast. Looks like not much weather now on its southern and eastern side, except for wind of course. Looking at the gusts around the Tampa Bay Area, strong, but manageable. Th next thing to look out for is storm surge into Tampa Bay, which has lessened due to Irma's inland track. Still, a SW wind will bring water into Tampa Bay.
Looks like 96 years, this Oct. 23, since a major hurricane in Tampa Bay will remain standing.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433659 - 11/09/2017 15:38 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 792
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Will update with reports from friends and family on the ground in Tampa Bay when available.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433685 - 11/09/2017 21:12 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4740
Forecast radar loop out to 5 days from the latest run of HWRF showing the dissipation:




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#1433689 - 11/09/2017 21:47 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1917
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
So what's the verdict? Has Irma been devastating as forecast or did Florida get off relatively lightly?

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#1433691 - 11/09/2017 22:47 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 792
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I think after all is said and done, Irma could have been a lot worse for Florida. The interaction with Cuba along with increased sheer after hitting the Keys really helped keep this storm from exploding into the monster it could have been in the very warm, deep waters of the Florida Straits.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1433864 - 13/09/2017 11:41 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: wet sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4740
Originally Posted By: rainiac
Not a very scientific observation, but when a hurricane/cyclone is in conditions conducive for further development, it always seems to intensify more quickly than forecast. The forecast is for a cat 4 at landfall atm, so hopefully this isn't the case this time and it doesn't intensify to a cat 5.


It's actually a very good point you raise because I've noticed the same thing with many other tropical systems as well.

Having said that though, intensity forecasts are often harder than track forecasts and many models also struggle a bit with forecast intensity... although they are getting better and some models such as the HWRF can do quite well.

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#1433881 - 13/09/2017 13:02 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2362
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Chased this one with James Reynolds from EarthUncutTV. A few clips below.

HURRICANE IRMA
_________________________
US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1433888 - 13/09/2017 14:13 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Orebound]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5913
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

I think earlier in this thread, there was a question regarding Hurricane sizes. I just came across this Very Interesting Video, detailing various sizes of different hurricanes; Please see:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoxKH_v8b-8

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1433891 - 13/09/2017 14:33 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1678
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Good work as always Qrebound .Living the dream.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1433908 - 13/09/2017 15:43 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14871
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Great stuff Orebound! Quality as always mate.

TS cool

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#1433918 - 13/09/2017 16:55 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5913
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach tracked Hurricane Irma with a team at Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.
He compiled a list of the records/notable readings associated with Hurricane Irma. To view this list, Please see:

http://www.webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf

Scroll down to see the eye-popping stats.

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow
^^^If above link fails, try this one:
http://www.tropical.colostate.edu
At right on page, under the heading of News 9/11/2017 you'll see: Final Summary of Meteorological Records set by Hurricane Irma has been posted. Click on the heading to see the pdf pages

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#1433920 - 13/09/2017 16:59 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 628
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: rainiac
Not a very scientific observation, but when a hurricane/cyclone is in conditions conducive for further development, it always seems to intensify more quickly than forecast. The forecast is for a cat 4 at landfall atm, so hopefully this isn't the case this time and it doesn't intensify to a cat 5.


It's actually a very good point you raise because I've noticed the same thing with many other tropical systems as well.

Having said that though, intensity forecasts are often harder than track forecasts and many models also struggle a bit with forecast intensity... although they are getting better and some models such as the HWRF can do quite well.


Cheers Ken. I guess forecasting the intensity of hurricanes/cyclones is always difficult considering everything the models need to account for.

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#1433987 - 14/09/2017 10:06 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 27
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
What was the maximum wind gust from Irma? I heard a figure on radio of around 370kmh as it hit Barbuda, but all i can find online is reference to the max sustained winds of 295.

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