Page 52 of 90 < 1 2 ... 50 51 52 53 54 ... 89 90 >
Topic Options
#1433625 - 11/09/2017 09:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
I often wonder just how reliable sunspot records are from the 1600's anyway.


Probably about as reliable as the temp records are...

Top
#1433630 - 11/09/2017 10:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1646
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Love to see RWM's work He has lots of experience over a long period.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

Top
#1433632 - 11/09/2017 10:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Happy Birthday Doug smile

Did you order any rain when you blew out the candles?
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1433634 - 11/09/2017 10:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Happy Birthday Doug smile

Did you order any rain when you blew out the candles?


Hope their wasn't a fire weather warning issued grin

Happy b'day!

Top
#1433643 - 11/09/2017 12:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1646
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Thanks guys , Yeah would love some rain .Just hit 57 years lol. And on reflection ,Made it longer than a lot of my mates too sadly.And luckily .
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

Top
#1433649 - 11/09/2017 13:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
I often wonder just how reliable sunspot records are from the 1600's anyway.


Probably about as reliable as the temp records are...


I would say it's way more accurate than temperature record from that time. Considering thermometers had not been invented but the means to monitor sunspots was already in use. Yes the data may not be as accurate or as complete as state of the art today but it would have still given a very good idea of what was going on.

Top
#1433650 - 11/09/2017 13:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: adon
I would say it's way more accurate than temperature record from that time. Considering thermometers had not been invented but the means to monitor sunspots was already in use. Yes the data may not be as accurate or as complete as state of the art today but it would have still given a very good idea of what was going on.


Good point! Would love to see what the clime was here in a Maunder min, bet there'd be snow down to much lower levels.

Top
#1433666 - 11/09/2017 17:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1294
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The anomalies map shows it breaking through over a large area of the south pacific. I personally believe this is where the water is coming from that disrupted the warming along the equator Hence why some models struggled so badly..


Agree. Clearly there is something at play that has been missed or under forecasted. I will openly admit I struggle to understand the thermocline at the best of time, it's an area we till don't know a lot about.


In most years it was fairly consistent and easy to read but that all seemed to changed a few years ago where what appeared to be foregone was eroded and replaced with the contrary.

The atmosphere on a couple of those occasions refused to couple with what the ocean was doing.


There is a fairly big elephant in the sky when it comes to the sort of observations you note above. Its not discussed, but its no conspiracy either, and that is the atmosphere is being manipulated. There are numerous patents, and the authorities even admit they are doing it. If you are wondering why the atmosphere doesnt couple with the oceans anymore then have a look at geoengineering...sure there are likely many factors at play like a solar minimum but this topic is taboo....and it shouldnt be. Heaps of info out there on it, including the patents.
Its relevant to this thread as it is a climate driver by manipulating jet-streams, ionosphere, enhancing convection rainfall etc. I cant believe this stuff can still be isolated from debate. Below is just some links I came across today. Tip of the ice berg stuff.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-ultimat...y-use-2/5306386

Oh and this below is so awesome it receives bi-partison support and you barely hear about it. If this is just good ol cloud seeding thats just fine and dandy right, but of course its just legislation to ensure we can be hammered by chemtrails constantly and its ok because its a never ending cloud seeding program which is great for the snowies. this isnt all benign fluffy stuff- there is always more behind the scenes. Make no mistake, the weather is being played with and there will be consequences. Earths natural balancing mechanisms are being disrupted. Forget ENSO, we will be looking at El nasty gringo, crazy global oscillation ENGCGO if we dont leave well enough alone.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-19/cloud-seeding/4322880

Top
#1433669 - 11/09/2017 18:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4300
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: adon
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
I often wonder just how reliable sunspot records are from the 1600's anyway.


Probably about as reliable as the temp records are...


I would say it's way more accurate than temperature record from that time. Considering thermometers had not been invented but the means to monitor sunspots was already in use. Yes the data may not be as accurate or as complete as state of the art today but it would have still given a very good idea of what was going on.


Thermometers were in use in parts of Britain from 1660 onwards joined by Europe in the early 1700's. It is interesting to look at the British records from 1659, where a 2 deg warming was noted from 1690 to 1730 ( as the sun got going again after the Little Ice Age of the 1600's ), then various rises and falls since then with a noted rise from 1980 to 2000 before a slow fall. It is also interesting to line up solar activity with this 350 year temperature record. There appears to be an average 5 - 10 year lag. Nothing totally definitive. BoM SOI readings are only available from 1876 onwards.

There are Brisbane River heights available from 1838, but no rain readings till the 1860's. Again interesting comparisons with these heights and higher solar activity from 1838 to 1870. There were an increasing number of rainfall stations as settlement spread out but BoM district records only started in 1900, right at the commencement of the Federation Drought..
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct192.6(93),YTD894.6(934)

Top
#1433673 - 11/09/2017 18:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree RWM - we need to monitor the sun-spots, then wait out the lag. ....and from then on, its all about the state of the oceans and nearby planets when these solar perturbations arrive. Cycles! (as someone well known here used to try to tell us all ....before the Emperor arrived).

Glad to see that we can discuss these concepts again.


Edited by Petros (11/09/2017 18:32)

Top
#1433686 - 11/09/2017 21:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 105
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The anomalies map shows it breaking through over a large area of the south pacific. I personally believe this is where the water is coming from that disrupted the warming along the equator Hence why some models struggled so badly..


Agree. Clearly there is something at play that has been missed or under forecasted. I will openly admit I struggle to understand the thermocline at the best of time, it's an area we till don't know a lot about.


In most years it was fairly consistent and easy to read but that all seemed to changed a few years ago where what appeared to be foregone was eroded and replaced with the contrary.

The atmosphere on a couple of those occasions refused to couple with what the ocean was doing.


There is a fairly big elephant in the sky when it comes to the sort of observations you note above. Its not discussed, but its no conspiracy either, and that is the atmosphere is being manipulated. There are numerous patents, and the authorities even admit they are doing it. If you are wondering why the atmosphere doesn't couple with the oceans anymore then have a look at geoengineering...sure there are likely many factors at play like a solar minimum but this topic is taboo....and it shouldnt be. Heaps of info out there on it, including the patents.
Its relevant to this thread as it is a climate driver by manipulating jet-streams, ionosphere, enhancing convection rainfall etc. I cant believe this stuff can still be isolated from debate. Below is just some links I came across today. Tip of the ice berg stuff.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-ultimat...y-use-2/5306386

Oh and this below is so awesome it receives bi-partison support and you barely hear about it. If this is just good ol cloud seeding thats just fine and dandy right, but of course its just legislation to ensure we can be hammered by chemtrails constantly and its ok because its a never ending cloud seeding program which is great for the snowies. this isnt all benign fluffy stuff- there is always more behind the scenes. Make no mistake, the weather is being played with and there will be consequences. Earths natural balancing mechanisms are being disrupted. Forget ENSO, we will be looking at El nasty gringo, crazy global oscillation ENGCGO if we dont leave well enough alone.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-19/cloud-seeding/4322880



Yes this is something I was unaware of until fairly recently there are many organised groups who are promoting the use of aerosols and so on to modify the earth's climate. I dont know how close any of this planning is to actual experimentation other perhaps than very small scale. Simulations have been conducted - it's quite openly admitted - you would think as a preparatory step in this process.

I agree there has to be a concern - given the complexity of non-linear relationships in our atmospheric system. Human kind is smart, but just not smart enough perhaps.

Top
#1433693 - 12/09/2017 00:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1669
UKMET updated yesterday and is now going for a weak to moderate La Nina. Mega feel free to chuck the graph up. It is another jump down from the August run. If you can chuck both graphs up Aug and Sep to show the difference.


Edited by _Johnno_ (12/09/2017 00:55)
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1433694 - 12/09/2017 00:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1669
Btw 3.4 NINO temp anomalies as of yesterday is -0.6c according to NOAA.
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1433698 - 12/09/2017 07:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2711
Loc: Buderim
Nino 4 is still above 0 at 0.21 according to BOM, but falling. NCEP is about the same now, but has barely fallen in the last month. TAO looks to have cooling stalled as well in this region.

Does this matter?

One of the most important impacts on the atmosphere of ENSO is shifting of the area of tropical convection. Normally nino 3 and 3.4 are too cool to support much tropical activity. Warm them up in el nino and they reach the threshold for tropical convection, shifting tropical activity away from Australia well out into the middle of the Pacific.

In contrast cooling nino 3 and 3.4 does little to tropical convection as in normal conditions not much is happening out there. In contrast nino 4 does support tropical convection in neutral conditions, and cooling this area down shrinks the area warm enough to support tropical convection to a smaller area just north of Australia.

The current 7 day forecast from GFS is going to be interesting. The western surge in easterly anomalies is now forecast to be very strong. From my observations surges this far west have minimal impact, but it is very strong, and I suspect that it may be able to cause a cool Kelvin wave despite being on top of the warmest water.

Westerly anomalies further east are on top of the currently strongest cool anomalies. Generally the further east the anomalies, the stronger the impact of direct cooling, but the less likely to have a kelvin wave impact. The easterly anomalies further east in the last week or so have caused strong cooling.


Top
#1433699 - 12/09/2017 08:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4300
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: Petros
Agree RWM - we need to monitor the sun-spots, then wait out the lag. ....and from then on, its all about the state of the oceans and nearby planets when these solar perturbations arrive. Cycles! (as someone well known here used to try to tell us all ....before the Emperor arrived).

Glad to see that we can discuss these concepts again.

Petros, I know what happened last time and am not trying to re open that previous discussion. Although I worked for BoM for 30 years I was not a Meteorologist, did not have a degree so was not paid to think. I was simply a Technical Officer - a data gatherer, radar/balloon borne operator and TS/cyclone radar evaluator, and here am simply gathering data readily available to all and maybe presenting it side by side if it looks like there might be something worthwhile. Once it is all together if it looks too " iffy " then I will stay silent.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct192.6(93),YTD894.6(934)

Top
#1433701 - 12/09/2017 08:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
It's quite easy to have a discussion on the relation to sun spot activity and its impact on our climate without having to take the discussion to the "banned" topic. If it goes there I will have no hesitation in letting Matthew Pearce know directly as this thread was closed for a while when the whole AGW shamozzle came crashing down and it took some convincing to get it reopened.

As for that conspiracy related stuff up the page, maybe you can go and open a separate discussion on it in another climate thread?

It deserves its own thread wink

The thread has survived perfectly well without the "banned" topic despite one or two protagonists trying to reopen debate.

Surface obs indicate a classic LaNina cold tongue is well established now with cool anomalies almost to the dateline.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellit...ic_930x580.gif.

_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1433702 - 12/09/2017 08:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Indeed, past the dateline. Don't you love the short fuse on the edit option.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1433706 - 12/09/2017 09:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Indeed, past the dateline. Don't you love the short fuse on the edit option.


LOL hate it.

And the Voldemort thread I have no idea of; but it sounds like it was an interesting one.

Top
#1433707 - 12/09/2017 09:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 172
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks for the detailed info Mike and others I have read this thread every day for many years but I am quite out of my depth at times. Can we have a few opinions in basic terms how everyone feels our East Coast summer is going to unfold rainfall wise with current data in mind? Cheers

Top
#1433709 - 12/09/2017 09:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snapper22lb]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 105
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Thanks for the detailed info Mike and others


Puts the sentiment perfectly in perspective

Top
Page 52 of 90 < 1 2 ... 50 51 52 53 54 ... 89 90 >


Who's Online
7 registered (Wave Rider, layka, Markus, DDstorm, willitrainagain, 2 invisible), 279 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
annair, marestails, Quasar, typhoontim
Forum Stats
29389 Members
32 Forums
23700 Topics
1465941 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image