Page 12 of 15 < 1 2 ... 10 11 12 13 14 15 >
Topic Options
#1433499 - 10/09/2017 15:14 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 611
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Not a very scientific observation, but when a hurricane/cyclone is in conditions conducive for further development, it always seems to intensify more quickly than forecast. The forecast is for a cat 4 at landfall atm, so hopefully this isn't the case this time and it doesn't intensify to a cat 5.

Top
#1433500 - 10/09/2017 15:15 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 732
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Well, this is what the NHC is seeing in regards to a less powerful hurricane. My question is why aren't the others seeing the same thing??

"If an eyewall replacement occurs within the next 6-12 hours, Irma
has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit while it moves across the
Straits of Florida. After that time, however, southwesterly shear
is expected to increase to 25-30 kt in about 24 hours and then
continue increasing through 48 hours. This shear, in addition to
Irma's core interacting with Florida, is likely to cause a
weakening trend after 24 hours. The new intensity guidance calls
for an adjustment from the previous forecast, although it
conservatively lies near the upper bound of the reliable models.
Irma is still expected to approach the Florida Keys and Florida
west coast as a major hurricane, and combined with its large size,
will produce significant storm surge flooding in those areas."
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

Top
#1433501 - 10/09/2017 15:18 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
So is this Tyler guy legit Warwick? Here is an extract from his latest blog:

On Saturday evening, Hurricane Irma was about 90 miles southeast of Key West and slowly moving WNW. Max sustained winds were at 125 mph, but we are expecting intensification as it moves across the Florida Straits. Irma is likely to be a category 4, perhaps category 5, as it first makes landfall in the Keys Sunday morning and again near Fort Myers Sunday evening. Expect the strongest winds for the Tampa Bay area to arrive late Sunday night and last through Monday morning

Top
#1433502 - 10/09/2017 15:24 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1552
Loc: Kingaroy
Reed Timmer reckons that Irma has already finished an eyewall replacement cycle and is gaining strength. Joe Bastardi reckons it's intensifying also.

Top
#1433503 - 10/09/2017 15:31 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Watched the video - 2 points: it was posted a full 8 hours ago - plenty has changed since then and they mention it will only reach Cat 4 or 5 IF wind shear is minimal which the NHC has already explained it most likely will do so mystery explained lol

Top
#1433504 - 10/09/2017 15:34 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
The forecast shear trend graph below indicates that a number of models are currently suggesting environmental deep layer shear to suddenly increase from today along Irma's path.

The latest CIMSS shear tendency product also suggests Irma is near the borderline of the areas of weakening and strengthening shear.

BUT I do find that the raw modelled shear can sometimes be way off what actually happens (classic case was with a TC near Darwin earlier this year when analysed shear simply didn't match up with forecast).

AND another thing to remember about the analysed shear tendency map from CIMSS is that the algorithms use a Fourier Transform technique to automatically remove the shear directly caused by the hurricane itself... so it can appear misleading for hurricanes of certain sizes if you don't interpret it correctly to take this into account:






Edited by Ken Kato (10/09/2017 15:38)
Edit Reason: added stuff

Top
#1433506 - 10/09/2017 15:40 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 732
Loc: Warwick, QLD
OK Pete, I was just looking 8 hours later after his original video and Irma still looks better on satellite, so his comments would still be valid, wouldn't they? Regarding satellite presentation.
Regarding the sheer, so 8 hours ago sheer looked low, but now 8 hours later it looks to be an issue?
Tyler? I was referring to Paul Delagatto's comments. Maybe that's who you meant?
Yes, he is legit. Looks like everyone has got this one wrong from one time or another throughout Irma's life.
I guess now we wait and see.....
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

Top
#1433510 - 10/09/2017 15:52 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1552
Loc: Kingaroy
Irma would be making her own wind shear most likely. Hurricanes like Irma have a mind of their own.

Top
#1433512 - 10/09/2017 16:05 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 78
Loc: Bushland Beach
Just got home and Fox News saying it just reach Cat 4 again


Edited by GrannyK (10/09/2017 16:06)

Top
#1433515 - 10/09/2017 16:11 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
yeah Cat 4

Top
#1433518 - 10/09/2017 16:24 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
P Man Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 21
Loc: Cambridge, Waikato NZ
Looks like the turn has started but what happens if it doesnt turn enough? Needs to make almost a right angle turn to hit Tampa and the west coast. It will have a lot more time over water if it is slightly further west and misses the panhandle.

Top
#1433548 - 10/09/2017 18:46 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1552
Loc: Kingaroy
You can see the fury of Irma on the webcams, even lightning is showing up on the cameras as well.

https://www.earthcam.com/events/extremeweather/


Edited by Chris Stumer (10/09/2017 18:46)

Top
#1433576 - 10/09/2017 19:45 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
princessweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 182
Loc: Ocean Grove Vic
Anyone got a link for more tech stuff, radar, pressure don't usually watch any TC from US, this is an exception! Monster of very nasty intent!

Top
#1433578 - 10/09/2017 19:51 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 732
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Hey P Man, I think the only way Tampa Bay will take a direct hit is if it rides up the coast, but moves onshore first, lets say around Sarasota. Pinellas County, where St.Petersburg is located juts out a bit into the Gulf. So, as It looks now, the western side of the the "Tampa Bay Area" will receive the worst of Irma.
The European model has been pretty consistent with this. A right turn I don't think is likely from what I have been hearing. But, let us wait and see....
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

Top
#1433579 - 10/09/2017 20:07 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wonder if Key West will make it to the next hourly update?

Pressure 969.3hpa at 6am.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1433589 - 10/09/2017 21:14 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
It did, 7am 962.5hpa
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1433593 - 10/09/2017 22:04 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
ok so the wind reading not being reported at 8am, baro is 953.7hpa. far out.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1433598 - 10/09/2017 22:20 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Key West is going to get nailed.

.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1433602 - 10/09/2017 23:23 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
11.00pm AEST

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS IN THE EYE OF IRMA...

A National Ocean Service station in Key West just measured sustained winds of 71 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h). The Key West Weather Service Forecast Office recently reported a gust to 91 mph (146 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1433604 - 11/09/2017 00:32 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
Still at Cat 4 at time of writing

Top
Page 12 of 15 < 1 2 ... 10 11 12 13 14 15 >


Who's Online
9 registered (Colin Maitland, Timbuck, Anthony Violi, Wave Rider, layka, Markus, DDstorm, willitrainagain, 1 invisible), 295 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
annair, marestails, Quasar, typhoontim
Forum Stats
29389 Members
32 Forums
23700 Topics
1465941 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image