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#1433220 - 08/09/2017 07:00 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Looking better and better for winds to decrease substantially by the time Irma reaches Miami on Sunday morning - not so good though for all the islands in between for the next 48 hours!


Edited by pete28 (08/09/2017 07:01)

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#1433224 - 08/09/2017 07:26 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: pete28]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1917
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: pete28
Looking better and better for winds to decrease substantially by the time Irma reaches Miami on Sunday morning - not so good though for all the islands in between for the next 48 hours!


It's strange how the models suggest the hurricane will intensify on approach but the winds won't become anywhere near as strong.

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#1433225 - 08/09/2017 07:30 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
I haven't caught up with the forecasting side of it that much in the last day or two but I'm assuming it has to do with Irma suffering from a bit of land interaction with the islands before re-intensifying as it crosses more open waters south of Florida (but perhaps struggling to reach its original intensity again due to the limited stretch of open waters there).

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#1433229 - 08/09/2017 07:48 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Yep I reckon the key is that open stretch of water to the South of Florida - it could easily regain 20-30kmh of wind speed just in that area alone...

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#1433233 - 08/09/2017 08:09 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5189
Loc: Diamond Valley
There's also a reference in the forecast to increasing vertical wind shear later in the forecast period, Ken.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#1433234 - 08/09/2017 08:12 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
Yeah IW, thats one thing I did see in an NHC forecast discussion yesterday.

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#1433253 - 08/09/2017 12:01 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
ERC in progress but Irma has barely weakened through it so far. Just incredible stuff. Fascinating to watch the live data come out of the recon planes too, you can view it here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

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#1433260 - 08/09/2017 12:33 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Her pressure had dropped from 923mb to 919mb in the past 5 hours so certainly not weakening...

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#1433271 - 08/09/2017 14:51 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 81
Loc: Bushland Beach
Just a odd question, does anyone know if the planes flying through & about hurricane has any affect on the hurricane?

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#1433272 - 08/09/2017 14:52 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
They don't have any effect.

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#1433273 - 08/09/2017 14:53 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: GrannyK]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
A plane would have absolutely no effect on a tropical cyclone at all.

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#1433281 - 08/09/2017 16:50 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Still a bit of model variance on Irma's exact path:

00z EC = right up the spine of Florida
00z GFS = eyewall right up the east coast before moving inland @ Georgia
00z NAVGEM = up the spine
00z CMC = up the east coast until about Palm Bay, then out to sea, then second landfall @ South Carolina. Outlier.
00z HWRF = up the spine but headed NNE to *nearly* exit the coast, does not do so though
00z UKMET = pretty much the same as HWRF

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#1433283 - 08/09/2017 17:03 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
The multimodel track consensus is reasonably tight at the moment as per below... although there's still some outliers among some ensemble members:



Edited by Ken Kato (08/09/2017 17:04)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1433290 - 08/09/2017 18:04 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Ken Kato]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The multimodel track consensus is reasonably tight at the moment as per below... although there's still some outliers among some ensemble members:



In short Miami is gonna get it and get it big league

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#1433291 - 08/09/2017 18:20 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1433292 - 08/09/2017 18:32 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Ken Kato]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 81
Loc: Bushland Beach
Thanks ken

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#1433293 - 08/09/2017 18:33 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Chris Stumer]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 81
Loc: Bushland Beach
Thanks Chris

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#1433294 - 08/09/2017 19:07 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Down to a Cat 4, not unusual during or just after an ERC.

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#1433297 - 08/09/2017 19:32 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
actually I'm not convinced the ERC has even finished yet. Someone mentioned on Storm2k that the northern inner eyewall is still intact, which looks to be the case:

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

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#1433327 - 08/09/2017 22:40 Re: 2017 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
What are the sea surface temperatures like there at the moment? She probably ramp up to a 5 again once the eyewall replacement cycle is finished.


Edited by Chris Stumer (08/09/2017 22:41)

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