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#1434106 - 15/09/2017 16:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Hi, its very common for Brisbane to be very dry from august through September. So i can't see anything unusual about this. Normally a change happens sometime in october, maybe early or late. But very common for brissy to be dusty and dry during the period mentioned. See it many many times

It actually isn't that common to be this dry for so long. Yes, dry spells are common at this time of year but it's been even drier than normal.

For example, much of our region got less than 1/5th of the typical August rainfall (median Aug rainfall for Brisbane is 22.8mm and average number of rain days is close to 6)...and that trend's continued into this month so far with many places receiving 0% of our typical September rainfall so far (median Sep rainfall for Brisbane being 23.4mm and average number of rain days is close to 8). Still the 2nd half of this month to go though.

Below are outputs from an ensemble of several models (calibrated by comparing past forecasts to what actually happened) showing the probabilities of higher or lower than normal rainfall for each month from Oct to Jan.
Even though it's tempting to interpret sizeable areas of light green as "very wet", the lighter colours are only slightly above/below borderline chances so they may or may not come off. It's the sizeable areas of the darker colours that I pay more attention to especially at shorter ranges.
There does still seem to be a shift towards higher than normal rainfall later this spring:










Edited by Ken Kato (15/09/2017 16:04)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1434108 - 15/09/2017 16:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
From the NZ Herald: "Destructive gales, snow and rain in store for much of the weekend as a 'barrage of fronts' cross the country"

Sound familiar...

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#1434114 - 15/09/2017 19:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 956
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I will chuck my two bobs worth in. September is usually a shocker, rain wise. I've noticed that we can get lucky with a late ecl in July and august , but when sept 1 clocks over, typically it's gona get dusty. This year July and august have been pretty lame.

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#1434132 - 15/09/2017 22:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
one drop Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 21
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Hi, its very common for Brisbane to be very dry from august through September. So i can't see anything unusual about this. Normally a change happens sometime in october, maybe early or late. But very common for brissy to be dusty and dry during the period mentioned. See it many many times

It actually isn't that common to be this dry for so long. Yes, dry spells are common at this time of year but it's been even drier than normal.

For example, much of our region got less than 1/5th of the typical August rainfall (median Aug rainfall for Brisbane is 22.8mm and average number of rain days is close to 6)...and that trend's continued into this month so far with many places receiving 0% of our typical September rainfall so far (median Sep rainfall for Brisbane being 23.4mm and average number of rain days is close to 8). Still the 2nd half of this month to go though.


i agree, here are the stats for our area. i thought last year was dry, this year is crap, for us.

MARYBOROUGH YEAR TO DATE
Average Rainfall To Sep: 848.1mm 93.0 Day(s)
Total For 2017: 421.0mm 86 Day(s)
Total To This Day 2016: 703.8mm 99 Day(s)

but hey, the ground is harder than concrete, and all the plants want to die, i never remember it quite this bad, round here.
and when it turns, the river will be in my yard, or under my house. thats crap too. grin

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#1434135 - 15/09/2017 22:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: one drop]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6551
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: one drop
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Hi, its very common for Brisbane to be very dry from august through September. So i can't see anything unusual about this. Normally a change happens sometime in october, maybe early or late. But very common for brissy to be dusty and dry during the period mentioned. See it many many times

It actually isn't that common to be this dry for so long. Yes, dry spells are common at this time of year but it's been even drier than normal.

For example, much of our region got less than 1/5th of the typical August rainfall (median Aug rainfall for Brisbane is 22.8mm and average number of rain days is close to 6)...and that trend's continued into this month so far with many places receiving 0% of our typical September rainfall so far (median Sep rainfall for Brisbane being 23.4mm and average number of rain days is close to 8). Still the 2nd half of this month to go though.


i agree, here are the stats for our area. i thought last year was dry, this year is crap, for us.

MARYBOROUGH YEAR TO DATE
Average Rainfall To Sep: 848.1mm 93.0 Day(s)
Total For 2017: 421.0mm 86 Day(s)
Total To This Day 2016: 703.8mm 99 Day(s)

but hey, the ground is harder than concrete, and all the plants want to die, i never remember it quite this bad, round here.
and when it turns, the river will be in my yard, or under my house. thats crap too. grin


I don't know, I reckon the summer just gone was drier than this, given that it was our supposed 'wet' season. I've never ever seen it so dry here at the end of summer before.

I'm still remaining optimistic though that this will break as we're only in September and we still have Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar for it to do so.

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#1434139 - 15/09/2017 23:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 284
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
You know it's dry when even the 'hardy' plants the council puts in the median strips are looking worse for wear haha
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#1434141 - 16/09/2017 05:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 956
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
they should plant cactus. There was no regular rain in th summer months this year, it all came in a couple of drops. That never helps. Hopefully this year nq will see a decent monsoon season and we can pick up the dregs. Will have to hope for the best..

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#1434163 - 16/09/2017 11:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 16
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Longest spell without any rain in Kin Kin was 99 days during the Millennium drought. We haven't reached that this year, but only because of a mm or two scattered here and there.

The local water delivery situation is probably the worst it's ever been though, waiting times up to 10 weeks and some sharks asking $650 for 10k litres where the normal price is 160-180.
The local councils are advising people they can have showers at the sports centre and fill containers for drinking water at park taps without being fined.

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#1434166 - 16/09/2017 12:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 579
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Lets hope we dont see a repeat of that! With a bit of luck we might see some turkey towers developing on the mountains later next week.

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#1434188 - 16/09/2017 16:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1614
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
I remember around 2007 there was a thread on this forum called something like "Looking forward to the next substantial rainfall in SEQ". Almost time to resurrect it!

Apart from a lucky 4mm for me on the 24th August, I haven't had a drop larger than that since mid June.
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1434223 - 17/09/2017 07:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1445
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I saw a rain drop the other day. It unfortunately landed on an ant which killed it instantly. An state funeral was held for the ant where millions turned up for the funeral. They have current plans in place to avoid such catastrophe, but it is unsure if another rain drop will be seen again smile
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1434243 - 17/09/2017 12:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
GFS finally showing some colour next Friday, at least its better than boring white.

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#1434244 - 17/09/2017 12:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
Various models have been going for increasing instability towards the end of this week (with a little bit on Tue but mostly inland) but the borderline moisture's been a bit of a dampener... so to speak.

Still hoping to see activity fire up unless things don't downgrade too much in the meantime.

Here's the current percentage of forecast scenarios from the GFS ensemble that are going for a combo of any rainfall and CAPE greater than 250J/kg (I chose Archerfield for this example) during the next two weeks:



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#1434247 - 17/09/2017 14:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1833
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Moisture is pretty poor and GFS is the only model with any precipitation whatsoever. Doesn't look promising.

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#1434259 - 17/09/2017 17:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks Ken & N.F. but at least its a liiitle light at the end of that bloody dry water pipe.

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#1434273 - 17/09/2017 19:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1833
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Wow BOM going for 34 in Bris and 38 in Ipswich next Sunday.

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#1434277 - 17/09/2017 21:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4596
Yep it's part of the same upcoming heatwave conditions that the 7-14 day NAEFS has been going for many days from the end of this week.

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#1434297 - 18/09/2017 10:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1646
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hoping to see a bit of action Friday arvo around the se coast Bris to Gold coast.BSCH showing some better conditions for storms, Fingers crossed.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1434305 - 18/09/2017 11:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 522
Loc: Doonan, Sunshine Coast
Well had an unusual event this morning, some precipitation (I think it would stretching it call it rain). It wasn't much ie a few drops on the ground and the smell of rain in the air but at least it is something.
Water trucks working non-stop round here at the moment 7 days per week. I suspect going to be a frustrating day for some if showers do eventuate this week. Where we live we don't do very well with anything approaching from west-southwest as tends to break up unless it is a solid line.

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#1434320 - 18/09/2017 17:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
BOM upgraded our forecast a tad, chance of thunderstorm next 4 days in particular Friday, wouldnt that be nice.
Gee, 37C on sunday, 38C in Gatton.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (18/09/2017 17:11)

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