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#1435321 - 28/09/2017 09:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: retired weather man]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 65
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Wow, the years 55, 56 & 57 look like a pretty dramatic swings.
And happening in a time with basically no information compared to the world today, can only imagine what everyone was thinking in those years...


Edited by wetdreams (28/09/2017 09:20)
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#1435323 - 28/09/2017 09:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 184
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Crazy this weather. Lucky if it got over 20 dgs today cloudy, cool day light drizzle this afternoon pleasant change I guess but dry as a boner,need some moisture from the tropics, the coral coast,anywhere !!


+1 TS. I was in kyogle for a few days , and driveing home last night just on dark as I came over the range I could just make out , cloud pressed up agians the scenic rim and I thought to my my self looks like it going to rain.
Buy the time I got to UKI it was constant light drizzle with a few heavier patches and I did turn my wipers off untill nerang. It was a pleasant drive windows down breathing in the cool moist air. Sure a lovely change , as I was out the day before at urbanvile farm.

Going camping to girraween next week , so hopefully I'll get some thing to fall from the sky smile smile I'm taking nephews camping for the first time , they love storms... So hopefully next Friday's front will throw a few sparks for them smile

Cheers
Tim

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#1435326 - 28/09/2017 10:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 184
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
RWM.
Absolutely Brilliant log of wet and dry stats. Just goes to show the old it never been so dry , it's never been so wet happens all the time. Australia sure lives up to it's extream variables.
We have only been here for 200 years and still learning and understanding it's cycles. That graph sure gives a good simple perspective of our weather.

Thanks very much for posting smile

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#1435328 - 28/09/2017 10:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2853
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gee, 120hrs GFS has a nice little bullseye over SEQ. It is GFS though, looks a bit promosing though. WATL very colourfull again as well.

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#1435332 - 28/09/2017 10:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1083
Loc: Toowoomba
So how can you use such graphs to show up events like the Millennial drought? Was it not the greatest drought since the first fleet arrived in Sydney harbor. Did not the combined Brisbane supply get down to 15% and every part of the continent was severely affected and all levels of government in every state panicking. It even changed Australians attitude to water use down to this day.
cheers everyone

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#1435334 - 28/09/2017 10:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Timbuck]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4590
Originally Posted By: Timbuck
RWM.
Absolutely Brilliant log of wet and dry stats. Just goes to show the old it never been so dry , it's never been so wet happens all the time. Australia sure lives up to it's extream variables.
We have only been here for 200 years and still learning and understanding it's cycles. That graph sure gives a good simple perspective of our weather.

Thanks very much for posting smile


There always has been, and always will be extremes but I think it's also good to remember the line "just because it's happened before, it doesn't mean it's completely random or that there's no longer term increasing/decreasing trend in extremes".

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#1435335 - 28/09/2017 10:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1083
Loc: Toowoomba
Once again if anybody would like to take the time to journey through the Bureau rainfall DECILE archives as I sometimes do to try to match my memories of big rainfall events with the actual records, October has produced some good events. The best was probably 1972 when still at school and caused Lismore's first October flood.
Disclaimer I have just posted this for general interest.

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#1435338 - 28/09/2017 10:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 184
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Yes totally agree ken. I just thought it gives a very good shot on our very small time slot we have been here and the boom/ bust cycles we have always had and probably alway will , although the strengths of both ends of the scale may change.

Like on Sundays landline. 101 year old farmer that's been on the same land for ever. his worst drought was 56 ( I think he said) , and being a very well respected and known man in his area has given great help to other other farmers from his knowlage of passed drought/floods situations and how he was able to push through the hard times on the land.
He has helped other younger farmers put things into perspective with all the tools and help we have today compaired to 50 years ago. His calmness and no stress approach is what he is known for. Really nice story.

Cheers

Tim

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Timbuck
RWM.
Absolutely Brilliant log of wet and dry stats. Just goes to show the old it never been so dry , it's never been so wet happens all the time. Australia sure lives up to it's extream variables.
We have only been here for 200 years and still learning and understanding it's cycles. That graph sure gives a good simple perspective of our weather.

Thanks very much for posting smile


There always has been, and always will be extremes but I think it's also good to remember the line "just because it's happened before, it doesn't mean it's completely random or that there's no longer term increasing/decreasing trend in extremes".

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#1435377 - 28/09/2017 15:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
CJI Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/10/2005
Posts: 116
Loc: Victoria Point
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
So how can you use such graphs to show up events like the Millennial drought? Was it not the greatest drought since the first fleet arrived in Sydney harbor. Did not the combined Brisbane supply get down to 15% and every part of the continent was severely affected and all levels of government in every state panicking. It even changed Australians attitude to water use down to this day.
cheers everyone


I would have thought the local impact of the millennium drought was pretty evident in the histogram with broad troughs and low peaks between 2002-2007. They aren't to be taken lightly. It's been described as the longest and most intense recorded drought nationally, with periods of relief around 2003 in many states, (Central Queensland wasn't so lucky). SEQ and southern VIC certainly suffered, as you would remember.

Nothing here seems to contradict this, if that's what you're concerned over?

It's not intended to be representative of conditions outside the region, or factors such as population, water storage and use in Brisbane. So I don't think it can be applied directly to what you're asking.


Edited by CJI (28/09/2017 15:24)
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#1435378 - 28/09/2017 15:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1083
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks for reading my post CJI. At least I know someone did. It was a stressful period which we all hope NEVER occurs again. We all thank RWM for that great graph.

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#1435379 - 28/09/2017 16:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
CJI Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/10/2005
Posts: 116
Loc: Victoria Point
No worries Hopeful. Agreed on the graph. It's a good contrast of regional rainfall differences between the tail-end of the Federation drought and Millennium drought.
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#1435388 - 28/09/2017 17:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4590
The Millennium Drought was one of the events that contributed to the trend of decreasing rainfall in our part of the world in recent decades.
The super La Nina in 2010/2011 was one of the events which bucked that overall trend.

You can easily see from the below maps that the decreasing rainfall trend is a lot stronger in recent decades compared to earlier:





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#1435392 - 28/09/2017 17:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1083
Loc: Toowoomba
Fascinating Ken. Looking at that 1970 to 2016 map. What would it look like if you started from after the Mid 1973 to 76 la nina?

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#1435393 - 28/09/2017 17:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
Fascinating Ken. Looking at that 1970 to 2016 map. What would it look like if you started from after the Mid 1973 to 76 la nina?


I'd hate to think what it would look like.

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#1435394 - 28/09/2017 17:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 609
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
Fascinating Ken. Looking at that 1970 to 2016 map. What would it look like if you started from after the Mid 1973 to 76 la nina?


I'd hate to think what it would look like.


Surely if the graph started say, in 1980, it would look a lot better? tbh I think that the wet spell in the 1970s would have skewed this graph towards the drier trending side.
Here, 6 of the last 9 years have been wetter than the 1973-2016 average (I included this year as being wetter than average as only another 50mm to surpass average)

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#1435395 - 28/09/2017 17:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4294
Loc: Wynnum
Further to my earlier post showing average annual rainfall for the whole of SE Qld, district 40, expressed as a percentage, I have added the average annual sunspot cycle over the same period.

There is nothing totally definitive but there are a few interesting points.

The solar cycle increases to a peak in the 1950's. The rainfall peaks in general trend upwards to the same time period.

After this the solar cycle has been falling and is still doing so. These same rainfall peaks have also trended downwards with the exception of 2010.

A few of the lower rainfalls have occurred during lesser solar activity and conversely a few higher rainfalls have occurred during higher solar activity, but again there are variations, so as I said in the second paragraph there is nothing really definitive.

But interesting to chew over.

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#1435397 - 28/09/2017 18:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: wet sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4590
Originally Posted By: wet sky
[quote=rainiac]Surely if the graph started say, in 1980, it would look a lot better? tbh I think that the wet spell in the 1970s would have skewed this graph towards the drier trending side.
Guess it depends on where you draw the line. If you were to start at 1980 and deliberately exclude the 70's because they were wet, you could also easily argue that it'd skew the map towards a wetter side. Even though the 70's were wet, it wasn't the only very wet period and there were also other very wet periods before then. By its very definition, the fact that the map shows a decreasing trend in the 1970-2016 period means that subsequent (long term) rainfall hasn't been enough to make up for greater rainfall earlier on in the period.

Quote:
Here, 6 of the last 9 years have been wetter than the 1973-2016 average (I included this year as being wetter than average as only another 50mm to surpass average)
How much wetter than normal out of curiosity? Only reason I ask is because if say hypothetically, a majority of years were only somewhat wetter than normal while the remaining years were much drier than normal (by a bigger margin), the latter would more than offset the wet years and still result in an overall decrease in rainfall amounts over the whole period. Of course, it's a bit of apples and oranges in this case since the 1970-2016 map posted earlier is for a longer time period.

Analysis maps aside, my belief has always been that we're now back to an overall much drier pattern in this area in recent years although there'll still always be the odd wet period/events which buck that overall trend.

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#1435399 - 28/09/2017 18:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 609
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: wet sky
[quote=rainiac]Surely if the graph started say, in 1980, it would look a lot better? tbh I think that the wet spell in the 1970s would have skewed this graph towards the drier trending side.
Guess it depends on where you draw the line. If you were to start at 1980 and deliberately exclude the 70's because they were wet, you could also easily argue that it'd skew the map towards a wetter side. Even though the 70's were wet, it wasn't the only very wet period and there were also other very wet periods before then. By its very definition, the fact that the map shows a decreasing trend in the 1970-2016 period means that subsequent (long term) rainfall hasn't been enough to make up for greater rainfall earlier on in the period.

Quote:
Here, 6 of the last 9 years have been wetter than the 1973-2016 average (I included this year as being wetter than average as only another 50mm to surpass average)
How much wetter than normal out of curiosity? Only reason I ask is because if say hypothetically, a majority of years were only somewhat wetter than normal while the remaining years were much drier than normal (by a bigger margin), the latter would more than offset the wet years and still result in an overall decrease in rainfall amounts over the whole period. Of course, it's a bit of apples and oranges in this case since the 1970-2016 map posted earlier is for a longer time period.

Analysis maps aside, my belief has always been that we're now back to an overall much drier pattern in this area in recent years although there'll still always be the odd wet period/events which buck that overall trend.


The average for the last 9 years is 1701mm, which is 100mm above the longer term average.
By decade, the average rainfall is:
1970s*: 1787
1980s: 1719
1990s: 1479
2000s: 1399
2010s: 1667 (not including this year)

*starting from 1973 when records began

So as you say, it really is a matter of perspective when analysing the data. If earlier records were available for here, we'd be able to see how the 70s and 80s compare to previous decades.

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#1435413 - 28/09/2017 21:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: wet sky]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1830
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Latest GFS has a 200+ mm bullseye off SEQ. Won't happen but a clear sign of changing conditions.

This is it I think. Latest CFS going for a warmer than average October and 50% chance of above average rain. 100% in November and wet signals in the months beyond while temperatures return to average. Long way off but it's picking up a distinct switch to wetter conditions.

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#1435420 - 29/09/2017 05:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Sunday night into Tuesday still looks good. Also nice to see no stupid ECL which would normally blast us with dry air for days after - instead it looks like remaining relatively unstable after the main rain has moved through.

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