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#1421612 - 16/04/2017 16:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Perfect weather for skywriting - aircraft just commencing to west of Bris city. WSWs at about 15000ft should blow the sign across city.
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#1421613 - 16/04/2017 17:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

POAMA Week 1 & 2 Forecast shows a slightly colder outlook in the region.



POAMA Week 3 & 4 Forecast shows mostly dry conditions in the region.



EC Monthly suggests a heavy rainfall event on the Coast around the 1-6 May period.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (16/04/2017 17:35)
Edit Reason: Layout
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#1421614 - 16/04/2017 17:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Perfect weather for skywriting - aircraft just commencing to west of Bris city. WSWs at about 15000ft should blow the sign across city.

Quite right with those wind observations.

I am guessing you are getting it from the 9am Brisbane Skew-T?
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#1421617 - 16/04/2017 18:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Yes I checked the Bris AD after making an estimate of the aircraft height visually and the direction of travel and how fast the sign went.

The aircraft probably wasn't ADS-B equipped as it didn't appear on Flight tracker so I could get exact data.

There is moderate WSW STJ above that at with core at about 30-35000'.
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#1421619 - 16/04/2017 18:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
The aircraft was actually a Cessna 182 and operating between 11,000 and 13,000ft at the time.

Flightradar24.com doesn't show all ADS-B transponder equipped aircraft while sites like Flightaware show more (including Mode-S transponders) especially smaller aircraft such as the Dash-8's that Qantaslink operates.

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#1421620 - 16/04/2017 18:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

A decent trough just offshore off the coast on 22-24 April.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (16/04/2017 18:41)
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#1421623 - 16/04/2017 20:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Brilliant Ken. Thanks for that. Cheers
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#1421635 - 17/04/2017 09:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1092
Loc: Toowoomba
Here is an interesting article From Lismore's Northern Star. I hope it is OK to copy and paste such articles into the forum. To me it is just a stark reminder how dumb us ordinary people are even those like me who think they know a bit about science and the weather. I did not know that water ran downhill until I read this article.
Cheers everybody.
NORTH Lismore residents are being urged not to trust Lismore City Council's floor height data after the March 31 flood inundated homes up to 40cm more than expected.

Even Lismore City Council itself has advised residents not to put iron clad faith in the floor height information during a flood.

The data, available on the council's website, gives floor heights of every address exposed to flooding in the Lismore basin.

It's available here.

Local weather watcher Tim Somerville described it as the "bible" for predicting the impact of the floods on vulnerable homes in North Lismore. However, Mr Somerville has concluded that it failed locals dismally on March 31.

He cited one Alexandra Parade address which has a documented floor height of 11.37m and therefore should have had only 22cm of water in it, based on the 11.59cm flood peak.

But in the actual flood the water peaked at 61cm above the floor, and the difference in expected flooding had huge consequences for the residents' loss of possessions.

"That person put their stuff up on beds. When we came in everything was floating around, because the beds were submerged," he said.

Another address on Terania St sat at 11.76m according to council floor data, which Mr Somerville said should have been 17cm clear of the flood.

Instead it was submerged in 22cm of water.

Interestingly, the difference between the expected flood depths and the actual flood depths at both properties was exactly 39cm.

Mr Somerville said if the floor height data was wrong, "that's unacceptable, because that's a sunny day failure".

"To people running about in the chaos of the event, that floor height (data) is everything."

However, Lismore City Council has itself advised residents the data may not be precise.

In fact the document has a very prominent disclaimer which says the information "has not been independently verified and is not endorsed by the Council as without error, omission or misdescription".

Lismore councillor and flood engineer Bill Moorhouse advised people not to treat the document as gospel in a flood, because it naturally didn't take into account the fact that water flows downhill and floods will always be higher upstream.

This phenomenon is called "hydraulic gradient".

"We've had this problem before. People don't understand hydraulic gradient," he said.


"The further (upstream) you are, the higher the actual level of the flood."

With water running downhill from North Lismore to the actual gauge at the rowing club, and Mr Moorhouse said a flood peak of 40cm at North Lismore above the official peak at the rowing club was "what you would expect".

The March 31 flood peaked at 11.59m, but Mr Moorhouse said people upstream "have to have a floor level substantially higher than that to be out of flood, because they're further upstream".

By the same token, he said "if you're 11.6m downstream, the probability is you're going to be further out of the wet".

"You cant just say it's 11.6m at the gauge therefore I won't get flooded (if my floor is higher than that). You've got to allow for that hydraulic gradient."

But because every flood is different, he said it was impossible to predict what the exact gradient is between upstream locations and the Lismore gauge.

"It's different every time, it depends how fast the river's flowing in different places, and how wide the river is," he said.

All floor heights provided by the council use Australian Height Datum, which is a standardised height above mean sea level.

Lismore Northern Star
TOPICS: LISMORE CITY COUNCIL NORTHERN RIVERS FLOODS NORTH LISMORE



Edited by Hopefull (17/04/2017 09:57)

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#1421637 - 17/04/2017 10:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The aircraft was actually a Cessna 182 and operating between 11,000 and 13,000ft at the time.

Flightradar24.com doesn't show all ADS-B transponder equipped aircraft while sites like Flightaware show more (including Mode-S transponders) especially smaller aircraft such as the Dash-8's that Qantaslink operates.


Just wondering if any pilots out there know if there is a requirement for use of supplemental oxygen at these sorts of altitudes and whether a 182 would be modified to perform effectively at these heights? Cheers
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#1421638 - 17/04/2017 10:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
Yep Multiversity as per the CAO's, "A flight crew member who is on flight deck duty in an unpressurised aircraft must be provided with, and continuously use, supplemental oxygen at all times during which the aircraft flies above 10 000 feet altitude."
I don't know whether that particular 182 yesterday was modified but 182's in general can go surprisingly high depending on weight, density altitude, etc at the time.

In other news, looks to get breezy in our region from midweek as the S/SE flow kicks in. Doesn't look like any major weather events on the horizon just yet though. Loving the cooler nights and not having to have A/C turned on all night.

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#1421640 - 17/04/2017 11:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Thanks for that.

WRT Trades synopsis - better late than never.
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#1421668 - 17/04/2017 20:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1130
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Hope everyone had a fantastic easter weekend. Weather could not have been better at the sunny coast, warm days, light winds, clear blue skies. smile Pic taken yesterday arvo from the balcony at our resort in Maroochydore.


As nice as the sunny days have been, could use a spot of rain back home, has dried out unbelievably fast since ex debbie. Won't see much if any rain here from the strong SE'ly flow over the next week, looks like this month will be the typical April snoozefest after an exciting March.
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#1421688 - 18/04/2017 08:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1678
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Nice photo Lightning Gus, Makes me think it time to visit the coast again lol.
Get some sand between my toes.And throw a line.
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#1421694 - 18/04/2017 10:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1324
Loc: Australia
Lovely Panoramic view there Gus, I have noticed there going for chance of showers along the coast the next few days, however the mean sea level charts have hardly changed the last 3-4 days? So what's changed to increase the showers and cloud? Have a great day all

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#1421748 - 19/04/2017 10:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 183
Loc: Gympie
Loving these temperatures at the moment.

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#1421749 - 19/04/2017 10:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
My thanks to whoever arranged for the cool SE blowing through Brisbane ATM. A bonus is also having air traffic with northern departures now turning over city. Awesome sight.

Bar is steady on a 1027hPa.
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#1421759 - 19/04/2017 14:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
WRT SEs. Can anyone give a quick rundown on this feature? Just wondering what controls the height of the trade wind inversion and when are conditions conducive for shower development?
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#1421795 - 19/04/2017 20:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10219
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A 9-day dry spell came to an end here (April 9th to 17th, inclusive). It was the longest dry spell of the year so far, which just happened to follow the longest wet spell of the year (11 days in a row of rainfall).
7.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning and 6.6mm since 9am from some onshore shower activity.
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December 2017 Rainfall: 25.2mm (Dec Avg. 117.7mm) // December 2017 Raindays: 5 (Dec Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1493.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 155 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1421802 - 19/04/2017 21:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
gleno71: Flow turns more onshore with a corresponding increase in moisture, possibly helped by a localised convergence zone near the coast. The main peak looks like being around Saturday but I wouldn't be expecting any big totals by any means.

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#1421803 - 19/04/2017 21:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
There's a number of influences on its height but a few of them include a typical increase in height as latitude decreases or you go further inland, the relative position of the high and how much warming subsiding air there is above it.
During early to mid autumn, we often get enhanced shower activity in this region if there's a very moist onshore flow below a strong inversion as long as the inversion isn't too low that it limits the vertical development of shower clouds too much.

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