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#1214958 - 24/10/2013 19:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looking out to early next week, all models moot light rain to fall around the state, but CMC stands alone with significant rainfalls in Central S and E of the state Monday into Tuesday.

Any comments?



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#1215015 - 25/10/2013 11:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4590
Ensembles have been hinting at the chance of warm anomalies spreading across by the start of November... although the probabilities are currently somewhat higher over western/inland parts of SE Australia (and parts of SA and WA) and more borderline over far southern & eastern parts of SE Oz.

Here's the current bias-corrected suggestion from NAEFS for temp anomaly probabilities averaged over the first week of Nov:


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#1215058 - 25/10/2013 21:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
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Loc: Tweed Heads
Petros said.. 'Any comments"
If your post of CMC came off petros we here would get 30-40mm!!
ACCESS giving the west quadrant some rain on Monday as a surface low emerges from a northerly dip with no infeed. with drizzle for the rest of VIC..Could be interesting petros with some surprises.
How about a thread for this event. Two days . Monday/Tuesday?
CMC would be the jackpot for us!!


Edited by crikey (25/10/2013 21:37)
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#1215225 - 27/10/2013 18:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
... and as things go Crickey, CMC now thinks more towards this outcome:



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Over the past couple of days I was hoping for a follow up to our Gippsland 18mm last week, but we may have to wait a little longer it seems.

Any comment on the lack of Victorian storms since we are now well into the 2013 Spring?

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#1215226 - 27/10/2013 18:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4590
If it makes you feel better Petros, Brisbane and Sydney have been similar re low storm count so far this season.

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#1215233 - 27/10/2013 19:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Acknowledged Ken, but feeling no better wink

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#1215294 - 28/10/2013 09:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
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Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I'm feeling bumed out since I went home last summer and only intercepted 3 or 4 storms which were fairly weak on top of a really quiet cyclone season and I come down here and there is nothing. I'd say that the cloud cover is inhibiting most of our chances and I reackon thats why we didn't see a storm last week. We need a good batch of warm days to be mixed with a low coming in from the west.

We need the sun to work poke
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#1215377 - 28/10/2013 21:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
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Loc: Tweed Heads
Petros said
"Any comment on the lack of Victorian storms since we are now well into the 2013 Spring?

Maybe low temperatures for southern parts October in VIC. Only had one +30 deg c day here. and where it has been warmer it has been drier..ie. Mildura

I think in QLD / NSW it has been dry and lacking moisture ..

and agreed with dawoodman . we have had lots of cloud cover for many of our events ..

Nothing much on the weather dial for VIC this week..
High pressure cell moving slowly over VIC until next weekend
We have a minimum of 4deg c forecast here next Wednesday
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#1215403 - 29/10/2013 00:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
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Had some reasonable rain here the past week which puts October close to average after a wet September.

Next system next Saturday with a few showers, EC wants to follow it up with a stronger front sunday and colder air but other models aren't as interested.


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#1215655 - 29/10/2013 18:43 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I'm headed to Inverloch for a 3 day golf event Fri-Sun 1-3/11/13. My take on the weather for that area of Vic - is for nice sunny day Friday, mild increasingly overcast Sat then a rotten cold showery SW'ly day to finish off on Sunday. Probably snow to 1000M in parts of Vic.

GFS says:


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#1216348 - 03/11/2013 08:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
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Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Epic rain event progged by EC for next weekend, hinted at on other models, wait and see a few more runs.
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#1216352 - 03/11/2013 08:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Still looks like the higher chances of wetness are around eastern & perhaps southern parts. But still early days so the areas/amounts could easily change between now & then.

Here's the latest offering from the FIM model and the NCEP ensemble:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5542/10633428004_12ca6f7acd_b.jpg

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5539/10619838113_3f98c051ea_z.jpg





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#1216413 - 03/11/2013 20:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Ec 00z run even wetter if anything than this mornings run.
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#1216440 - 04/11/2013 07:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
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Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC now has two systems (cant see latest GFS) initial one with heaviest precip out Gippsland way and secondary one in later part of weekend more like what Kens showing above but then moving down into VIC.

All up interesting and hopefully wet Easterly pattern coming.
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#1216454 - 04/11/2013 10:18 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
GFS looks very similar on this mornings run with a "two bites" type of set up as well.
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#1216496 - 04/11/2013 18:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Heard the BOM this arvo mentioning the possibility of high accumulated rainfall for Vics Eastern 1/3 IF.. the complex system results in a secondary low pressure system in the early part of next week.

The way I see it, it looks likely that we will be subject to an Easterly Dip situation later this week. This will drag moisture down from the NE providing handy rain on NSW fire area (Eastern side of the divide) and some wetness in Vics E.

.....Then cold air may arrive later in the weekend from the SSW to add spice to the moisture available and potentially creating a cut-off low event for Vics E.

.... naturally I'll be watching!! smile


Edited by Petros (04/11/2013 18:58)

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#1216498 - 04/11/2013 19:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Umbrella looks a good investment for you Petros whichever scenario unfolds.
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#1216611 - 05/11/2013 18:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looking at the latest model runs and find it interesting that GFS has mixed the two systems (late week easterly dip, followed by cut off low) into one and delayed the outcome of a significant rain impact to Vic till Tuesday?


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CMC and AccG latests still not available as I type. Regardless, there is weather about for Vics south over the next 7 days!

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#1218407 - 13/11/2013 18:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Pls let EC be right for next week. Cold air looming up from the SW, few days ago EC had very cold air and a sharp front. As the other models have caught up with this they have all slowed down the progress, EC now has a low forming on it and sitting over VIC and then the SE coast. Dreaming of this scenario........No other model has this so will try keep a lid on it.
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#1218799 - 14/11/2013 20:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Not clearly there now on this arvo's runs, but then again consensus is all over the shop. There's even a couple of Easterly Dip scenario's too (NE moistue infeed possibilities).

It will become clearer over the weekend, the greedy bugger in me wants hot Sun/Mon, then rain again smile

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