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#1425476 - 07/06/2017 17:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4368
Loc: Brisbane
Are you referring to the small section of up to -2 anomalies visible at 155 to 165W on the 155m chart that presumably showed up at 110-120W in May on the 55m chart?

That's a fairly small section of the entire Pacific. What about the warm anomalies that had been present earlier in the year that are now almost all gone.

The 155m chart shows no warm anomalies and the 105 and 55m not much at all. Thats a far cry from earlier in the year particularly for the 155m and 105m charts.

You've also not commented on whats happening with the 20C isotherm and the Upper Ocean Heat Content neither of which support the proposition that we are seeing a developing El Nino.
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#1425521 - 08/06/2017 05:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
The 155m chart shows the majority of the Pacific under warm anomalies. I think you are looking for anomalies above +1 which are what they colour in yellow. The main exception is the west which has cooled, which is exactly what you expect in an el nino.

Overall the heat content of the Pacific is on the lower side for a developing el nino. (See CPC data under historical - heat content) But consider that during may 2002 the average top 330m temp of the Pacific was 0.03, after being 0.64 at the start of the year. This year May was at 0.37,compared to 0.07 at the start of the year.

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#1425540 - 08/06/2017 11:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
Hi Cutofflow.. Regarding the Positive IOD I'm not as convinced as you.. In a classical Positive IOD episode we see waters become cooler than normal right across northern Australia including the Gulf of Carpendaria, Timor and Arafura seas and even the Coral sea from previous episodes including the 2007 event which saw a developing weak La nina in the Pacific and there is no evidence at all of this at the moment and looking into rest of June with the modelling I still see little chance of ssts cooling north of OZ.

The cooler patch has been there for months and more west than usual more into the central Indian ocean extending east to just touch western reaches waters of Indonesia but further east things are good.

The models remain mixed regarding the IOD with POAMA going for neutral and has been this way for 6 weeks now, I guess it also depends what the Pacific does which may determine how the IOD reacts.


Edited by _Johnno_ (08/06/2017 11:45)
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#1425541 - 08/06/2017 11:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
Check this out there is also a distinct cooling off the African coast off Somalia the area where the western IOD region is also measured and calculated. Not convinced at all of a Positive IOD at this stage. In saying this I think the central and parts of the eastern Indian ocean will remain cooler than normal next few months which may continue to impact rainfall for the southern states especially southern WA.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta


Edited by _Johnno_ (08/06/2017 11:46)
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#1425594 - 08/06/2017 20:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1468
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
That pic just reads neutral to me. Fairly widespread evenness though on the warm side.
I agree with the neutral forecast, but beyond that, have no idea
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#1425607 - 09/06/2017 07:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4368
Loc: Brisbane
A single pic in itself can show neither cooling or warming.

If I have a cup of hot coffee and 10 minutes later its only warm coffee surely it would be accurate to say the coffee is cooling but also accurate to say the coffee is warm.

I think what Johnno is saying is that it is cooler now off the African coast than it was earlier in the year. (with a caveat that I haven't been watching so I'm assuming its what he's saying).
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1425610 - 09/06/2017 07:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2148
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_update

Quote:
However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the models from the latest runs of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are now favoring the continuation of ENSO-neutral. These predictions, combined with the near-average atmospheric conditions over the Pacific, have resulted in slightly more confidence for the persistence of ENSO-neutral (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niņo remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

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#1425636 - 09/06/2017 12:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
QBO about to go Easterly in coming months. You can see it weakening on these EPS Control runs (+0h and +360h)





Edited by Snowy Hibbo (09/06/2017 12:26)
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#1425654 - 09/06/2017 18:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
June update of NASA's GMAO now plunging into Neutral territory after relentlessly forecasting El-Nino since the start of the year:


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#1425660 - 09/06/2017 21:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Locke
A single pic in itself can show neither cooling or warming.

Yes smile -- one needs a time sequence of images spanning the appropriate time range to show any change.
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#1425665 - 09/06/2017 22:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
That's it Locke
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#1425672 - 10/06/2017 02:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
June ECMWF shifting away from El-Nino now as well:



So it seems CFS & POAMA started this trend now the others are aligning...well done to those two.

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#1425678 - 10/06/2017 09:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
TAO TRITON show a continued trend towards el nino though. Currently westerly anomalies significantly stronger than the last batch - although i find intensity at the end of TAO TRITON display is often revised downwards in subsequent days, so good chance this will be dialed back a little. Further warming near these westerlies, but cooling in the east where enhanced trade winds have prevailed. Nino 4 looks like it will reach a new high when BOM releases its next weekly value, Nino 3.4 is hard to pick with cooling in the east and warming in the west.

Thirty day CFS forecast suggests westerly anomalies to dominate the Pacific for the entire forecast period, although the 850 hp trade wind products seem to be doing a poor job of picking up on both the intensity of the trade wind burst in the far east, and the intensity of the westerly anomalies in the west.

The mystery - were did the cool subsurface pool come from. I am not convinced that the trade wind burst had more than a small role in its formation, which means it might not go away quickly if the current westerly anomalies continue. This cool pool is quite broad, extending well past 5 N and S. Typically when a burst of trade winds initially creates either a warm or cool sub-surface anomaly it is much narrower than what we are seeing.

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#1425813 - 12/06/2017 16:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
June UKMET continues to plummet to neutral levels:



JAMSTEC should be out soon, I am interested to see what it shows since it was one of the models still calling for a mod-strong nino this year.

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#1425901 - 13/06/2017 16:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2725
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Check this out there is also a distinct cooling off the African coast off Somalia the area where the western IOD region is also measured and calculated. Not convinced at all of a Positive IOD at this stage. In saying this I think the central and parts of the eastern Indian ocean will remain cooler than normal next few months which may continue to impact rainfall for the southern states especially southern WA.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta


The patterns look very 2006 esk at the moment Johnno with those big fat highs in place over Vic/SA blocking fronts from moving north over the mainland. And us here east of divide coping S/SE winds and showery conditions just like June 2006 from memory. Even if the IOD isn't positive at the moment the patterns sure look as if it were.

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#1425963 - 14/06/2017 14:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
JAMSTEC has updated and has been leading the way with a moderate to strong El Nino for several months and has suddenly gone from (moderate to strong El Nino April run with +2.0c temps), (May +1.5c temps) Latest June run at best it has +0.6c temps warmer than normal next few months so basically it has eroded any chance of an El Nino even forming in two months... Wow what a turn around... Another model that's been behind with this whole process and reactive.

In saying this it still has a stern Positive IOD.


Edited by _Johnno_ (14/06/2017 14:44)
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#1425973 - 14/06/2017 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yes Johnno....What a backflip by JAMSTEC...wow. Went from this:



To this:


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#1426011 - 15/06/2017 00:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1747
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Thousands of millions spent on the "Science", hundreds of millions more spent on interpretations of the "Science", millions more spent on interpreting all those varied interpretations, and then.
Hundreds of millions more spent on averting the interpretations of the hundreds of millions spent on the expected which never arrive...and never have done.

Just imagine the effect of a per year spend of $20 Million spent on eradicating the Cane Toad from Australia ? 20 Million spent on feral Cat, Fox and Pig control each, $20 Million spent on breeding programs for endangered wild natives such as the Night parrot etc ?

I think it is well past the point in time that people actually think about the amount of money spent on 100ths of a degree change as measured on a global scale of supposed increase in temperature, and that they start to look at their own back yard instead when it comes to the preservation of the natural world.

Yes sorry this is sort of off topic Coldfront but in reality it is directly related.

All this wringing of hands about a less than detected .5 degree celcius in temperature increase over the last hundred years and focused solely on Co2 output as the culprit is a Strawman of the extreme when it comes to all else that affects our environment.

Why ? , When we suppose to measure the global temperature down to 100dreths of a degree, do we ignore the very real threats to our diversity and preservation of our native environments ?

A mere $10 million a year could help to solve the problem of Sea turtle eggs on Cape York being predated by wild pigs and help with random drift nets as well. Yet a study on the palaeoecological record of moss in Antarctica is funded instead or some such thing.

Controversial ... probably, but I am going to go there anyway (apologies in advance Coldfront).

Over 25 years of studies have yet to show any link at all between any man made greenhouse gases and any change in the global climate at all. There is, as of today no proven link at all between the two in any published scientific study whatsoever.

On the other hand while all the focus and funding has been steered towards this sort of scenario, the actual preservation of the natural world has suffered immeasurably with practices such as logging of rainforests and "bushmeat" harvesting increasing year on year all the while.

Yes, while the western world has been focused upon a bee's dick of so called measured Global temperature increase of 100dreths of a degree C, the rest of the planet has been getting along with eating and living, IE: the other 85% has been eating Monkeys and rare Sloth's instead or other such things so as to raise their children.

We can discuss all we like the Pro's and Con's of the latest taxpayer funded state of the art computer model,coupled with the latest data inputs that cost the Taxpayer only $50 million a year and produce nothing more than noise compared to real life, but then you would be missing the point right?.


Here's a challenge for all the expert buffs on this thread.
Give us all just three years in a row where they got it right accurately before it happened...this century ?

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#1426025 - 15/06/2017 09:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1348
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
You are spot on Marakai, misallocation of resources on this planet is incredible. There are so many more important things to focus our attention on. Plastic pollution, deforestation, habitat destruction, ferals, (what about billions of becquerels of radiation pouring into the pacific that you never hear about). The whole carbon debate is a massive red-herring really designed to milk the little man....and entirely pointless until people start properly debating geo-engineering, which is happening constantly around us. This is a great thread and it wont take nicely to these posts.....so I be back to my box, but wanted you to know that (certain) others agree!

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#1426028 - 15/06/2017 10:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
scott12 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 794
Loc: maadi Tully area
Yeah I also agree...wayy to much emphasis put on the weather and ,dare I say it,the climate change industry.........how much time,energy and money goes into something that cannot be changed when much that can and should be changed remains unfunded and low on the priority list..crazy old world..!.....BTW, I thought most on this thread at the end of last year were discussing how big the La nina effect was going to be this year..?..

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