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#1433764 - 12/09/2017 15:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Kino
I think that has a lot to do with El Nino as well - more se'erlies then e/ne under a La Nina.


Yeah, could be a combination of both, but we weren't in an El-Nino last year, I think that's what caught many of us by surprise. I certainly didn't expect to see record breaking dry through these parts during a non-El-Nino year. I still don't know what the hell happened last year, why the hell it was so damn hot and dry. It was just terrible, and I really don't want to experience a summer like that again anytime soon.


See, I think we were, just very lagged because of the -SAM. IMO it looped the negative effects of the Nino like a forcefield. Basic terms I know but best way i can describe it.

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#1433765 - 12/09/2017 15:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The Northern Australia Wet Season was very Nino like if I recall which to me says that there was lingering effects.

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#1433766 - 12/09/2017 15:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
The Northern Australia Wet Season was very Nino like if I recall which to me says that there was lingering effects.


Yep definitely, all good points. You may be right, I mean it does make sense.

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#1433769 - 12/09/2017 16:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Apologies for the terrible grammar; it should have read "there *were* lingering effects" frown

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#1433777 - 12/09/2017 17:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Crazy to get excited so far out but wouldn't that trough at the end of this run be something else.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...2017091200&fh=6
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#1433779 - 12/09/2017 18:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1348
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Any glimmer of hope CF is worth getting excited about. Everyone waiting for the shift.....

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#1433781 - 12/09/2017 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Originally Posted By: Petros
Agree RWM - we need to monitor the sun-spots, then wait out the lag. ....and from then on, its all about the state of the oceans and nearby planets when these solar perturbations arrive. Cycles! (as someone well known here used to try to tell us all ....before the Emperor arrived).

Glad to see that we can discuss these concepts again.

Petros, I know what happened last time and am not trying to re open that previous discussion. Although I worked for BoM for 30 years I was not a Meteorologist, did not have a degree so was not paid to think. I was simply a Technical Officer - a data gatherer, radar/balloon borne operator and TS/cyclone radar evaluator, and here am simply gathering data readily available to all and maybe presenting it side by side if it looks like there might be something worthwhile. Once it is all together if it looks too " iffy " then I will stay silent.


Roger that RWM.

My post certainly had no intent to implicate you on any stance regarding "the topic of which cannot be mentioned".

We all respect and avidly read all your posts.

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#1433783 - 12/09/2017 19:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Fireduck Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/01/2013
Posts: 22
Loc: Lake Munmorah
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Crazy to get excited so far out but wouldn't that trough at the end of this run be something else.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...2017091200&fh=6


If I read this right, when changing to 2m Temps, it appears to be a not so nice 3 - 4 day period towards the end of September for the East Coast? Appears to be a run of mostly warm to hot weather from the 18th onwards, which other charts tend to also lean towards.

Appreciate thoughts and predictions given how dry it has been and how many fires have occured without the heat added.

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#1433786 - 12/09/2017 20:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Yeah nothing decent rain wise in the short term it would appear at this stage fireduck.
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#1433791 - 12/09/2017 21:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
Great graphs Mega thanks for that.

Last Summer was an odd one weak La nina or cool neutral in the Pacific but all the rain fell in WA, central OZ, NT, SA and to an extent Vic and Tas. SAM stayed negative all the way through with upper high anchored over the Coral sea.
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#1433792 - 12/09/2017 21:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
Originally Posted By: Kino
The Northern Australia Wet Season was very Nino like if I recall which to me says that there was lingering effects.


In Queensland yes but not in NT and northern WA.. If I recall right Darwin had over 2000mm top 3 or 4 wettest wet seasons on record.
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#1433798 - 12/09/2017 22:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: Kino
The Northern Australia Wet Season was very Nino like if I recall which to me says that there was lingering effects.


In Queensland yes but not in NT and northern WA.. If I recall right Darwin had over 2000mm top 3 or 4 wettest wet seasons on record.


El Niño doesn't necessarily mean dry wet seasons for the Top End, if I recall it's about 50/50; they can however sometimes mean later starts and usually heavy concentrated falls.

Eg 1997-98 wet season, massive El Niño southern Aus yet Darwin got well over 2000mm.

In fact the 2016-17 wet had very similar season to 1997-98. Hopefully that's a sign for us!

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#1433806 - 12/09/2017 23:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
Last summer was stinking hot, maybe this summer might set rainfall records in many areas for the wettest ever. All that heat has to fuel something.


Edited by Chris Stumer (12/09/2017 23:56)

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#1433810 - 13/09/2017 07:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Last summer was stinking hot, maybe this summer might set rainfall records in many areas for the wettest ever. All that heat has to fuel something.


Can anyone remember what 1998 summer was like?

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#1433814 - 13/09/2017 07:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1917
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Just be patient guys. The atmosphere can't ignore the significant cooling for much longer and the IOD is weakening. October will see the big switch. CFS is already onto this, showing significant wet signals for October.

Gotta wonder how strong this La Nina will be. CFS has Nina down to -1.5, but below -1 for almost 5 months. For days all the newest runs have been below -1.5 with a lot dipping down to -2.

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#1433816 - 13/09/2017 07:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 109
Originally Posted By: Seira
snowbooby, the Monsoon that has been impacting South-East Asia lately seems to be strongly supporting what the abstract said in the paper you recommended smile .


Seira,according to the authors, the incidence of intense Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones is favoured 2:1 by the westerly phase QBO.

This needs to be qualified

The authors point to difficulties finding the linkage between monsoonal circulations which are phase locked to the annual cycle, and the variable QBO phase cycle.

So it’s possible, I guess, this recent cyclonic activity originated at a time when the QBO was in max westerly wind shear mode - if their argument is correct.

And if I have interpreted it correctly, the current situation in the pacific equatorial corridor(QBO entering max easterly wind shear mode) is already biased against the likelihood of a strong cold event.

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#1433820 - 13/09/2017 08:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 115
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Last summer was stinking hot, maybe this summer might set rainfall records in many areas for the wettest ever. All that heat has to fuel something.


Can anyone remember what 1998 summer was like?


I found the rainfall figures for 1997/98 at the BOM site for Brisbane.

... and here's the data for Port Kembla for 1997. It was quite dry in 1997 and 1998, but the early months of 1999 were very wet in Wollongong and Brisbane.
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#1433822 - 13/09/2017 08:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Last summer was stinking hot, maybe this summer might set rainfall records in many areas for the wettest ever. All that heat has to fuel something.


Can anyone remember what 1998 summer was like?


BOM site can do maps for any year going back to 1911

Click to the left on rainfall and then on 'maps and grids' next to archive towards right of top section to switch to rainfall maps.

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#1433823 - 13/09/2017 08:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Last summer was stinking hot, maybe this summer might set rainfall records in many areas for the wettest ever. All that heat has to fuel something.


Can anyone remember what 1998 summer was like?


BOM site can do maps for any year going back to 1911

Click to the left on rainfall and then on 'maps and grids' next to archive towards right of top section to switch to rainfall maps.


Thank you, I am aware of this; they are incredibly difficult though to access on ones phone, hence why I asked.

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#1433828 - 13/09/2017 08:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
There was flooding in South East Queensland in February 1999 I remember, big tropical thunderstorms as well too I think. I agree with Nature's Fury, the atmosphere is going to couple soon and when it does, it's going to be rather wet, especially if the predictions of CFS are correct

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