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#1434059 - 14/09/2017 22:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Morham Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 40
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Does earths tilt also contribute to ice ages?

Fascinating discussion going on here.

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#1434060 - 14/09/2017 22:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Morham]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7103
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Morham
Does earths tilt also contribute to ice ages?

I would say yes - the tilt, eccentricity and precession.


Edited by Seira (14/09/2017 22:44)

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#1434065 - 15/09/2017 04:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I read a report somewhere a while back that the Inuit tribes & Eskimos in the arctic have observed sunrise & sunset at a different position through the seasons than in the past. Those people have their own weather forecasting method which they used for generations & is now made more difficult due to a different seasonal sun position. I dont know if its true or not but it seems to me that it would explain a few things that are happening in the N.H. weather.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (15/09/2017 04:29)

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#1434068 - 15/09/2017 07:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
I read a report somewhere a while back that the Inuit tribes & Eskimos in the arctic have observed sunrise & sunset at a different position through the seasons than in the past. Those people have their own weather forecasting method which they used for generations & is now made more difficult due to a different seasonal sun position. I dont know if its true or not but it seems to me that it would explain a few things that are happening in the N.H. weather.



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#1434087 - 15/09/2017 11:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2061
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
La Nina watch out now.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Quote:
CPC/IRI ENSO Update
Published: September 14, 2017

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis: There is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.

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#1434091 - 15/09/2017 13:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Wow......the turn around is almost unbelievable!

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#1434093 - 15/09/2017 13:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Absolutely...this graph is pretty telling too:


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#1434095 - 15/09/2017 14:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Interesting about oceanic circulations and how big changes can radically change climate. I have posted the following nugget before on WZ about glacier research by a Dr Burrows who postulated that during the Younger Dryas period whilst the NH was freezing its tits off, Oz and NZ may have been up to 2 degrees C warmer than today.
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1434096 - 15/09/2017 14:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
An excerpt from article
"The height of the last Ice Age was around 20,000 years ago and then progressively over the next 7-9,000 years you get the greatest global warming that we have seen in recent history, then right at the end of that warming it gets cold again," Dr Burrows said.
Dr Burrows said that when melting ice sheets over North America dumped huge amounts of fresh water into the Atlantic it caused the ocean currents to stop.
"Every now and then enough fresh water goes into the North Atlantic that it actually stops its circulation," Dr Burrows said
"And when that happens Europe cools dramatically," he said.
The rapid cooling seen during the Younger Dryas event was previously believed to have been a global phenomenon, affecting the southern hemisphere as well as the northern.
But Dr Burrows said that using new methods to date the glacier he was able to show that not only did the southern hemisphere not cool during this period, temperatures were actually 2 degrees warmer than today.
"The way our world works, we actually transport heat from the southern hemisphere into the north, because of this ocean conveyer belt," he said.
"And when you stop that, the heat doesn't have anywhere to go and it accumulates in the southern hemisphere."
Article here
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1434097 - 15/09/2017 14:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Suprised SMH hasn't cleansed that article from its archive. Pretty heretical
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1434101 - 15/09/2017 14:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Knot]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Knot
Suprised SMH hasn't cleansed that article from its archive. Pretty heretical


You mean homogenised? grin

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#1434102 - 15/09/2017 15:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Morham]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Morham
Does earths tilt also contribute to ice ages?


Good read HERE.

Originally Posted By: adon
Wow......the turn around is almost unbelievable!


Yes very dramatic.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1434107 - 15/09/2017 16:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 475
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Aboriginals say they were living on the Great Barrier Reef 10,000 years ago.

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#1434113 - 15/09/2017 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for putting that up Kino, interesting, havnt seen that, yes that is what I am on about. Recon we are overdue for an ice age but those solar flares not helping IMO.

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#1434115 - 15/09/2017 19:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I read in the solar thread that sunspots at solar minimums, when they occur, are friggen huge.

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#1434118 - 15/09/2017 20:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not blowing my own trumpet (well I actually wish I could...) BUT seems I was on to something over the last few days re ENSO and it's influence on the clime:

BRAND new paper out TODAY says this (apologies for the Voldemort references but it couldn't be helped as it directly relates to this thread:

Quote:


OCEAN CYCLES, NOT HUMANS, MAY BE BEHIND MOST OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE

Date: 15/09/17 Global Warming Policy Foundation
An eminent atmospheric scientist says that natural cycles may be largely responsible for climate changes seen in recent decades.

In a new report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Anastasios Tsonis, emeritus distinguished professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, describes new and cutting-edge research into natural climatic cycles, including the well known El Nino cycle and the less familiar North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

He shows how interactions between these ocean cycles have been shown to drive changes in the global climate on timescales of several decades.

Professor Tsonis says:

“We can show that at the start of the 20th century, the North Atlantic Oscillation pushed the global climate into a warming phase, and in 1940 it pushed it back into cooling mode. The famous “pause” in global warming at the start of the 21st century seems to have been instigated by the North Atlantic Oscillation too.”

In fact, most of the changes in the global climate over the period of the instrumental record seem to have their origins in the North Atlantic.

Tsonis’ insights have profound implications for the way we view calls for climate alarm.

It may be that another shift in the North Atlantic could bring about another phase shift in the global climate, leading to renewed cooling or warming for several decades to come.

These climatic cycles are entirely natural, and can tell us nothing about the effect of carbon dioxide emissions. But they should inspire caution over the slowing trajectory of global warming we have seen in recent decades.


Full paper https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/09/Tsonis.pdf


Edited by Kino (15/09/2017 20:11)

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#1434127 - 15/09/2017 21:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
The North Atlantic, the elephant in the room.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1434148 - 16/09/2017 08:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2711
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Not blowing my own trumpet (well I actually wish I could...) BUT seems I was on to something over the last few days re ENSO and it's influence on the clime:

BRAND new paper out TODAY says this (apologies for the Voldemort references but it couldn't be helped as it directly relates to this thread:

Quote:


OCEAN CYCLES, NOT HUMANS, MAY BE BEHIND MOST OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE

Date: 15/09/17 Global Warming Policy Foundation
An eminent atmospheric scientist says that natural cycles may be largely responsible for climate changes seen in recent decades.

In a new report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Anastasios Tsonis, emeritus distinguished professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, describes new and cutting-edge research into natural climatic cycles, including the well known El Nino cycle and the less familiar North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

He shows how interactions between these ocean cycles have been shown to drive changes in the global climate on timescales of several decades.

Professor Tsonis says:

“We can show that at the start of the 20th century, the North Atlantic Oscillation pushed the global climate into a warming phase, and in 1940 it pushed it back into cooling mode. The famous “pause” in global warming at the start of the 21st century seems to have been instigated by the North Atlantic Oscillation too.”

In fact, most of the changes in the global climate over the period of the instrumental record seem to have their origins in the North Atlantic.

Tsonis’ insights have profound implications for the way we view calls for climate alarm.

It may be that another shift in the North Atlantic could bring about another phase shift in the global climate, leading to renewed cooling or warming for several decades to come.

These climatic cycles are entirely natural, and can tell us nothing about the effect of carbon dioxide emissions. But they should inspire caution over the slowing trajectory of global warming we have seen in recent decades.


Full paper https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/09/Tsonis.pdf


Nothing new about claims of AMO and PDO driving climate, and they certainly have significant influences on some parts. I remember in particular claims nearly 10 years ago made in this forum that these cycles were going to lead to a dramatic cooling soon. Every single year since that prediction was made has been warmer.

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#1434151 - 16/09/2017 09:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Big cycles. Smaller cycles. When the stars align big change happens. Warmer or cooler. An anthropentric point of view might get knickers twisted. But from a geological perspective it is grand and majestic
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1434152 - 16/09/2017 09:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
You guys are treading a very dangerous path towards exposing this thread the levels of abuse that were witnessed just prior to Matthew Pearce completely shutting the lot down. If you want the thread to continue I would suggest the discussion changes course .

If it doesn't then I will be sending a PM directly to Matthew Pearce to prevent it turning into the ugly mess it became last time around.

It is entirely possible to discuss trends in climate without having to raise whether or not we are playing a part and the thread has managed to do that quite well over the past few years. Now I have noticed a member has surfaced who does not ordinarily post in here and immediately done so with an agenda.

Go and start your own thread and go at each other hell for leather . Regardless of the side you chose, there is a high chance you were wrong anyway. Consider that before proceeding to destroy the ENSO thread. Unless of course you are 4.5 Billion years old in which case you may have a point. I like others really enjoy the thread and don't want to see it closed and a number of members banned due to a couple of protagonists trying to bring it down.

This was Matt Pearce's final post on the matter.

Originally Posted By: Matt Pearce


Hi all

It is with sadness and regret that I announce that Weatherzone has made the decision to close the Climate Change forum.

The administration and moderation team have been left with no choice but to take this course of action due to the persistent and unrepentant disruptive behaviour of a small number of forum users over a long period of time.

Frankly, I and the rest of the moderation team have been quite disappointed in the childish behaviour shown by members on both "sides" of the discussion, despite repeated warnings.

A number of moderators have tirelessly given their time and effort over recent months and years to keep the forum in check, but this has now taken its toll on them, and they are no longer able to give it the focus it requires.

The last few days where the forum has been unmoderated has only served to reinforce that we have made the right decision - the level of personal attacks and trolling has been appalling. It is quite amazing that grown adults choose to relate to each other in this way.

It is important to note that from this point on, there will be *zero tolerance* regarding any of this behaviour spilling over into the rest of the forum. There will be NO discussion of any climate change-related topics in any other forum. There will be NO personal attacks relating to any climate change-related discussion. There will be no warnings given for this behaviour - the first offence will result in an immediate month ban, and any subsequent offence will result in a permanent suspension.

This is our chance now to clean up the Weatherzone Forum and get things back on track. The moderators and admins will not let a vocal and childish minority spoil this for the vast majority of mature members.

In time, we will go through and move "relevant" threads, like ENSO and IOD discussion, into other forums, but this may take us a few days. Please be patient.

No correspondence will be entered into regarding this decision - the poor behaviour of the offenders has removed your right to this privilege.

Thanks

Matt Pearce
Weatherzone Forums Admin



My Bold.
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